Tioga Pass Prognosticator #15

[Mark Sedenquist]

Tioga Pass Prognosticator #15
Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. For all of those folks who think that Tioga Pass is not a big deal... one of our long-time roadtripper colleagues remembers driving it in the 1930's when it was a single lane, dirt track, with no guardrails and drop-offs on both sides of the road.... A year ago we observed the latest ever recorded closing, and this year was one of the earliest closing dates. Climate change appears to be affecting the Tioga Pass Prognostication "game." For the first time in a couple of seasons there both the Chief Prognosticator (TPP) and dcTPP (darn-close prognosticator) positions are open.


(Photo: Kingman, Arizona on Route 66, April, 2013 fueling her car on RTA's dime)
The former Reigning Chief Prognosticator, Jessica Beagles-Roos known on the Great American RoadTrip Forum as CAnative earned her title with back-to-back winning predictions for the opening date of the Spring 2011 season, (June 18th at 10:00 am) and the Winter 2011 closing date (January 17th, 2012 at 3:00 pm). She nearly pulled off a three-peat by correctly guessing (off-line) that the opening date would be May 7th, 2012. Unfortunately she didn't make that guess official and so her record-breaking three-peat performance came to an end.

George Carey, (glc on the Forum) is the most recent acting dcTPP (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator). George joins four other dcTPPs...Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively.

So, now it's a clean slate. Do you have what it takes to be the new Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator?


************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2013: May 11th (Noon)
2012: May 7th (Noon)
2011: June 18th (8:45 am)
2010: June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing...
Spring 2012 Opening
Winter 2012 Closing

And here you can monitor current conditions from 4 Web cams in Yosemite NP:
Yosemite Falls
El Capitan
Half Dome
High Sierra

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

[Mark Sedenquist]

First dart in.... May 24th at 8:30 am

[Mark Sedenquist]

The "hump" is still growing -- look how whacked the trees are this year! Must have been very windy at this point!

(Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy)

[Southwest Dave]

Having pondered long and hard about this, [almost a minute in fact] I'm going to opt for;

Thursday May 16th at Noon. [Based on the fact we haven't had 'one of those 'listed before on the Yosemite site ! ]

Good luck folks !

Dave.

[It sure do look nice up there at the moment, wheres my snowshoes !]

[Southwest Dave]

And the snow would appear to be melting away !



[I'm sure there is plenty to come !]

Dave.

[Southwest Dave]

Just look at it from the Sentinel web cam ! Little snow with blue skys and the daytime temps are set to touch 50f over the weekend !



Could this be a real early opening on the cards, or will we see a late flurry of snow ?


Just look at the comparision to Feb 18 2011 !!

[Mark Sedenquist]

Not much chance for good waterfall flow this spring!

It was in the low 70's in LA today...

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

It had to arrive at some point !

A hazardous weather warning is in place for the Sierras, bringing up to a foot of new snow to the high ground.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 5000 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES. UP TO ONE FOOT IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY.

* ELEVATION: ABOVE 5000 FEET.

With more to follow over the next few days !

Dave.

[Mark Sedenquist]

This the kind of weather we need to see alot more of before spring happens in the Sierra Nevada!


Photo Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

[Dermeta]

Hi all,
this is my first post, and i do hope that it will open before May 27th, as I am planning a trip from SF to LV over Tioga Pass in my first trip to USA. ;) Hope weather and cleaning crews will be on my side...