Tioga Pass Prognosticator #14

[Mark Sedenquist]

Advent of the Winter RoadTrip Season in the West
This is our fourteenth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. (I know it just opened for the 2012 summer travel season, and the road isn't even dry from the snow melt, but time marches on...)

The current Reigning Chief Prognosticator, Jessica Beagles-Roos known on the Great American RoadTrip Forum as CAnative earned her title with back-to-back winning predictions for the opening date of the Spring 2011 season, (June 18th at 10:00 am) and the Winter 2011 closing date (January 17th, 2012 at 3:00 pm). She nearly pulled off a three-peat by correctly guessing (off-line) that the opening date would be May 7th, 2012. Unfortunately she didn't make that guess official and so her record-breaking three-peat performance came to an end.

George Carey, (glc on the Forum) is the current acting dcTPP (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator). George joins four other dcTPPs...Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte (Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively.

So, now it's a clean slate. Do you have what it takes to be the new Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator?

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th
2001: November 11th

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD

* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing...
Spring 2012 Opening

And here you can monitor current conditions from some Web cams in Yosemite NP.

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

[Mark Sedenquist]

First Dart in.... Friday, January 18th at 4:30 pm

[Southwest Dave]

Wow ! Going for another record breaker huh Mark ?

Here we go again !

I'm gonna take an early shot as well. I reckon we might see some early snow storms and the pass will close on November 2nd @ 3pm

Good luck Prognosticators !

Dave.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Sheriff Dave didn't ping the poll!

[Mark Sedenquist]

We'll need a ruling from Sheriff Dave, but technically Jessica could still achieve a three-peat status.... Since there was no TPP for the Spring, 2012 opening, and if CAnative were to snag the TPP for the Autumn closing... she could in theory leapfrog the Spring, 2012 contest and RETAIN her Chief TPP status... But the odds in achieving this are, as we all know, frightfully low!

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

I will get the hang of it one day ! Although I think we need a "Before November 9th" option ! ;-)

Dave.

[If Jessica were to pull it off then I would say yep, that would be a Hat trick of success's.]

[Mark Sedenquist]

I modified the poll to have a "before November 9th" as per your request, (although as Sheriff, you could have done this too...)

I still don't see your ping on the poll for your November 2nd prediction...

(***Oh, I see, you couldn't ping the poll, because November 2nd wasn't in the parameters when you voted.... Silly me) -- But it is now!

[squidly-tripper]

To take advantage of multiple predictions on the poll, you need do it the first time you "vote" so, in this case I am choosing October 29th at 9:00 am and December 7th at 5:00 pm

[CAnative]

Oh I haven't even gotten up there yet this year so to think about road closing ..... sigh. My first guess is

November 17, 2012 at 5 pm.

Tease me all you want -- I've been lucky and am happy. The 13th contest wasn't lucky which makes me wonder about 20 .. 13 dates.

[CAnative]

Last year Tioga Pass wasn't open for Memorial Day weekend and the Glacier Point Road after briefly opening was closed for most of it. Hope they get Tioga Pass open or there will be many disappointed travelers this weekend. From CalTrans ...

SR 120
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
IS CLOSED FROM THE YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK (TUOLUMNE CO) TO 5 MI WEST OF
THE NORTH JCT OF US 395 /TIOGA PASS/ (TUOLUMNE, MONO CO) - DUE TO SNOW -
MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE