Tioga Pass Prognosticator #4

[Mark Sedenquist]

This is our fourth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a tradition rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum.

12/12/07: The official date was just announced:
The Official Closing Date for 2007 was December 6th!

Last year, this famous road closed on November 26, 2006*. In 2005, it closed on the 25th of November….hmmm, maybe there is a trend here somewhere. Here are the official opening and closing dates from 1980 to the present. Actually, in April, 2007, the NPS website showed that the official closing date was November 27th (even though I know the gates were shut on the 26th and so RTA Forum Member memetu, was technically correct -- memetu predicted the 27th – (and there is no statute of limitation on the 2006 award…should anyone know how to reach memetu.)

For the Spring opening, RTA Forum member, Kinless used his highly honed prognosticator skills and predicted that Tioga Pass would open for the summer, 2007 road trip season, on May 10th. Unfortunately, it actually opened at Noon on May 11th, so for the want of this 24 hour period, he missed the grand prize but earned the equally coveted title of dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) More about the Spring opening poll can be found by clicking here.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD To win this prize, the date must be posted on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official closing date.

Good luck!

RTA Editorial Team

Current Record Holders:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009 (Click here for news about this achievement)
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue) Winter 2009 Click here for the declaration of dcTPP winner!
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte) Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless) Spring 2007

[Mark Sedenquist]

So, I am thinking that the ultimate summer road trip road, will be open until December 2nd.

Mark

[Robert Schaller]

I predict the closure this year for November 15th.

Of course, the last totally accurate weather forecast was when God told Noah there was 100% chance of rain...

[Mark Sedenquist]

I predict the closure this year for November 15th.

OK Dokey, -- What scientific calculation was this?

Mark

[Robert Schaller]

It was the science of the carefully calculated guess!

[Mark Sedenquist]

My educated guess technique could stand some improvement -- I have been wrong each time....

Seems a little weird to predicting the closure and the pavement is not yet dry on the summer opening... but time marches on!

Mark

[Kinless]

Actually I guessed May 10th for the 2007 TPP opening but either way it was one day off. Regardless I'm happy to receive a runner-up prize.

Mark, I had a question. Is there a "cut off" date where no more guesses are allowed? I think the only reason I guessed accurately for the opening is because I knew there wasn't much snowfall for the season and used that to my advantage.

Obviously it's a little harder to strategize when the first big snowfall will be, but regardless, will (or should) there be a deadline?

[Mark Sedenquist]

I had a question. Is there a "cut off" date where no more guesses are allowed? I think the only reason I guessed accurately for the opening is because I knew there wasn't much snowfall for the season and used that to my advantage.

Yes, it has been in the previous polls -- but I forgot to put it in this time (I have since corrected it -- thanks). To win this prize, the date must be posted on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official closing date.

Mark

[UKCraig]

I based the my guess at the opening on my own birthday. I was wrong. But, if I'd picked my dads birthday, I'd have been spot on! So... I'm going to bet on another birthday... my mums. November 21.

[lhuff]

If Craig's going with his Mum's Birthday - I'll go with my Momma's as well. I'm guessing December 3rd.

Laura