Tioga Pass Prognosticator #9

[Mark Sedenquist]

This is our ninth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Last spring, (June, 2009), we awarded our the second ever official Tioga Pass Prognosticator Award to Great American RoadTrip Forum member Phil Boardman. More information about that award can be found here.

Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west.

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also be arbritrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

In the past we've had three winners of the dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) -- Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte (Lynn & Victor) and Kinless, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2009, spring of 2008 and 2007, respectively, and the first Tioga Pass Prognosticator award was presented to weirj in Winter 2008. We're now looking for our second Tioga Pass Prognosticator for the Spring road opening. Maybe you're the next one?

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009 (Click here for news about this achievement)
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue) Winter 2009 Click here for the declaration of dcTPP winner!
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte) Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless) Spring 2007


Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD

* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009

And here are the Yosemite National Park Official Closing and Opening Dates for the last several years!

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

Here are some Web cams from Yosemite Valley.

Happy Predicting!

Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

[Mark Sedenquist]

I think the odds are that one of these years, it will happen (again) on my birthday and so May 12th at 10:30 am

Mark

[UKCraig]

May 1st for me... midday :)

[Mark Sedenquist]

Craig,

If you're entering a predictive date, please indicate on the poll, that's the only way we really have of keeping track of the entries -- your vote will be recorded there and then Sheriff Dave can drill down to get the specifics to chose the Winner next spring.

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

I am opting for an early one as well so my date is,

May 6th @ 4 pm

[glc]

May 22, 8am.

Looks like we have more votes than posts...........

[Southwest Dave]

Good spot !

Please read the rules carefully !] If your predicted date and time is not identified in a post in this thread it will not qualify !

Good luck everyone !

[CalOldBlue]

I'm going late; not because I think that's what will happen, but because that's what this state NEEDS to happen.

June 4 at noon.

For those who like watching grass grow, this chart from the state water department shows a composite of 8 rain gauges in the Sierra, and gives a good overview of the state of our water year (in the north at least).

You can see how this year (pink line) is on track (dotted black line), the previous year (green line) wasn't all that bad, but the prior year (yellow line) was awful. Chart doesn't show the year before that, but it was as bad or worse.

[Southwest Dave]

As the plowing towards the entrance kiosk at the East entrance begins the thaw has been put on hold due to recent winter weather conditions, so it will be interesting how this unfolds over the coming weeks. For those biding their time, please remember that your prediction must be posted at least 15 days prior to your selected date.

Latest info.

Good luck to all who take part !

[Southwest Dave]

The crews have made steady [slow] progress and are now 12 miles in from Crane flat, about 4 days later compared to this time and point last year.

Tioga Road:
Start: 9 miles from Crane Flat
End: 12 miles from Crane Flat (8,000 ft mark)
Miles plowed: 3 miles

The going looks a little slower and I think there is more snow depth, so for a second prediction I am going to grab,

May 27th @ 10am.

Note. Anyone taking a second guess will not be able to "ping the poll," [only one ping available] but your prediction will count as long as it is identified in your post as per the rules in post 1.