Tioga Pass Prognosticator #16

[Mark Sedenquist]

Sheriff Dave is the ultimate decision-maker on this, but here is my take on your questions:

It's been know to reopen so I have no idea if my original date of Nov. 28th is still in the running or not. If I make another guess does my original date get thrown out even if it's the winner?

Most of us have made second and even third guesses, but I don't of anyone who won in the way postulated. But I can say that I believe that November 28th is no longer in the running for this contest.

Also the rules state that our chosen date has to be posted on this forum more than or equal to fifteen days prior to the offical Tigoa Pass Road Closing date as per the rules? Does that apply to second guesses too?

Yes, this is firm no matter how many times you entry a guess.

If my date has to be 15 days from date posted, then I'd like to take Dec. 13th at 2:17 PM but I don't want it if it means I might lose out on my original date of Nov. 28. If I can make a prediction earlier than the 15 days, then I might make a different prediction.

You can make any prediction you'd like -- but an early prediction will not be in the "contest period" as per the rules.

Mark

[Utahtea]

Sheriff Dave is the ultimate decision-maker on this, but here is my take on your questions:

Most of us have made second and even third guesses, but I don't of anyone who won in the way postulated. But I can say that I believe that November 28th is no longer in the running for this contest.
Yes, this is firm no matter how many times you entry a guess.
You can make any prediction you'd like -- but an early prediction will not be in the "contest period" as per the rules.

Mark

Thanks Mark

In that case if it's not to late, I'll take Friday, December 13th at 2:17 PM.

Utahtea

(edited to add the time)

[Southwest Dave]

Just to confirm that Mark is correct and both your dates remain in the contest, but it looks most unlikely that 28th Nov will be a the date going by the info we have thus far. Of course if it opened briefly and closed again and that's the official date that is posted for the closure, it's a winner.

2:17pm is very specific, so I'm guessing it might be a DOB or similar. It does leave you about 5 hours short of 15 days if we go by the time you posted your prediction, but we can let that one go. ;-)

Good luck !

Dave.

[Utahtea]

THANK YOU! 2:17 is time of birth :) I was just keeping the same time as my first prediction. I know I was cutting it close but I did mention it the first time with in the 15 days. I just didn't know the rules then. ;)

[CAnative]

Dec 17th, 2013 at 3 pm
and
Jan 1st, 2014 at 3 pm.

Oh but I've forgotten how to ping the poll for additional guesses.

[Southwest Dave]

There is a possibility of 6 inches of fresh snow near the east kiosk through Tuesday with temperatures dropping to minus 17 C followed by another dusting of snow on Weds. It looks clear after this, but is followed by daytime highs of minus 6 C and nightime lows of minus 15 C at 8600ft near Tuolumne meadows. Although not much snow has been put down, perhaps winter is starting to get a grip on the pass and it's not likely to re-open unless it thaws out up there.

From what I can tell, the last time it was open was back on Nov 19th but we will have to wait and see.

[Southwest Dave]

The updated forecast looks even less promising now with a couple of feet of fresh snow possible.

Friday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

It might not be far away from an official announcement if this little lot comes down.

[glc]

Yep, this could be it. Ebbetts/Monitor/Sonora are all closed and there are a lot of chain restrictions out there right now. Only way to get across the Sierras right now without chains or 4wd with snow tires is I-80.

[glc]

Keep your eyes open, Sheriff - as per Caltrans: Ebbetts, Monitor, and Sonora all closed for the winter today, 12/9.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Yep..... Looks like a closure announcement is around the corner...