Winter Rite of Passage: Tioga Pass Prognosticator #12

[Southwest Dave]

For the time being Caltrans has removed the "For the Winter" statement. That's not to say that it isn't though !!

The forecast at the moment is changing all the time and certainly keeping the forecasters on their toes ! As of a few minutes ago there is the possibility of seeing 12 inches of new snow settle tonight and tomorrow [Sunday] before a break in the weather again Monday and Tuesday, before another system sweeps through.

On a side note, if anyone is travelling in the region on Thanksgiving you need to keep an eye on the travel conditions, especially over the Grapevine and Tehachapi passes as there is a Special weather Statement in place..

WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
857 PM PST SAT NOV 19 2011

...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TRAVEL...

AFTER A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD START TO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY AND DESERT RAINS NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXTENDED FORECAST CHARTS SUGGEST A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
VALLEY AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
TEHACHAPI PASSES ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL
DELAYS OR DIFFICULTIES.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Since Dave as so aptly and in a timely manner brought up the issue -- now would be a good time to read these tips.

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

Nice article Mark !

I'm not sure how significant it is, but the Yosemite site has now listed the pass as 'Closed' on their 'Current conditions' page for the first time this winter. Yosemite has previously listed it as 'Call' [before travelling] while it has been listed as 'Closed' by Caltrans. In other words, it is the first time the official site has used that word, CLOSED .

Could that be it ? Maybe, maybe not, watch this space !

[CAnative]

The listing changed from "call" to 'closed" about 10 minutes ago. However, Death Valley National Park changed the road from "closed -- due to snow" to "Closed!!" yesterday morning.

[Southwest Dave]

I must get the info quicker on my 'Direct line to the White House'. LOL.

The listing changed from "call" to 'closed" about 10 minutes ago.

It was definitely listed as 'Closed' when I posted almost an hour before you. We have had issues before, when I have seen and posted the official closing date and a few hours later it has been removed, only for it to reappear again later.

It's a real shame the Web Cams haven't updated since Saturday !

[Mark Sedenquist]

Sounds like Sheriff Dave is going to have to call it soon.

I see the Yosemite Conservancy web cam pages have been updated -- Looks like they want people to donate before viewing the web cams. The direct links still work -- but it's a shame it has come to this.

Mark

[CAnative]

Yes you did a good job posting status change within 10 minutes, probably within seconds. It still may warm up and dry up nest week.

I'd put in one more guess for Dec but with my luck, it would be close to another road opening.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Nice sunny day up there again:

Photo: Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
(Sentinel NetCam -- Photo taken: Wednesday, November 23rd at 1:00 pm)

[Southwest Dave]

...I would say NOT. [If that's not the kiss of death...... !! ]

With little snow accumulation expected and temps expected to reach near the mid 50's on the pass over the weekend and forecast to remain relatively mild at least until Tuesday, I would say there is a chance it could go into December.

A great weekend to be visiting Yosemite valley if the forecast remains unchanged. [??] Blue skies and temps touching into the 60's !!

[Southwest Dave]

Tis Open !!

And I can't find anything in the forecasts to suggest it will close before next Wednesday. That would indeed see Tioga record a December closing date. That would also be the first time since 2007 and only the fourth time since 1980 !

However, we all know how quickly the weather can change so a huge snow storm on the 28th isn't out of the question. [PLEASE]