Spring Rite of Passage: Tioga Pass Prognosticator #11

[Mark Sedenquist]

This is our eleventh attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Last Spring, (June 2010) RTA Forum Member, Exodus, claimed the title of Reigning Chief Prognosticator when he correctly named the opening day and opening time of this famous highway. {Exodus' winning prediction was June 5th at 8:00 am} Winners with their prizes can be found here.

Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. For all of those folks who think that Tioga Pass is not a big deal... one of our long-time roadtripper colleagues remembers driving it in the 1930's when it was a single lane, dirt track, with no guardrails and drop-offs on both sides of the road....

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

In the past we've had four winners of the dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) -- Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively, and the first Tioga Pass Prognosticator award was presented to weirj in Winter 2008. We're now looking for our third Tioga Pass Prognosticator for the Spring road opening. Maybe you're the next one?

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Jessica Beagles-Roo (CANative) Spring, 2011
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007


Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2011: June 18th (8:45 am)
2010: June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD

* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010

And here you can monitor current conditions from some Web cams in Yosemite NP.

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

And if you go to the Winter, 2010 TPP and look at this page, (scroll down the page) you'll see a live Web cam of Half Dome together with a still taken on November 24, 2010 to see how much snow fell in late November! I've since added shots taken in January and March, 2011 -- the March 2011 is truly astounding....

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

[Mark Sedenquist]

So, I'm declaring a vote for May 12th at 11:45 am....

-- Mark

[travelingman]

I predict May 27 at 8am.

But I never win anything!

So, I picked the losing date so that others will have an improved chance of picking the winning date!

[Southwest Dave]

^^ Thanks travelingman, I need more like you if I am to win the prize !!

You might be interested to know that the Mono Lake committee recorded a record amount of November snowfall since 1994 ! Although there will be many factors at work, it's hardly surprising that the 1995 opening was the second latest since 1980, when it finally opened on June 30.

The snow depth at Tioga entry station would appear to be well above average at a depth of 40" and there is a 'humdinger' of a storm forecast over the weekend that could dump between 43 and 73" of fresh snow !!

My prediction June 16 @ 4pm

Good luck to all !

[Southwest Dave]

Things have settled down on the pass for the time being but with the snow pack reportedly between 60 and 70 in deep at Tuolumne meadows it would appear to be well above average for the time of year compared to the last few seasons.

Today's picture taken from the Web cam at Sentinel dome.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Hard to imagine there could be 60' feet of snow anywhere in North America. 60 inches (5 feet) Yeah, I could see that.

But nice photo capture!

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

OK wise guy ! I had meant to type > 'between 60 and 70in' but must have got carried away with the space bar. Lol.

Yeah, that links slow on the main Yosemite page as well so it should update.

[Southwest Dave]

With no significant snowfall for Approx 6 weeks and above average temperatures for the time of year, the snow pack depth has decreased by quite a bit from it's 'above average' December levels. Up to now though, it has been so settled there has been nothing worthy of an update going on.

However, that is all about to change as we return to more familiar weather for the time of year. A winter weather watch is in place for the area as a storm approaches today. The forecast through to the weekend is predicting between 40" and 65" of fresh snow accumulation above 7000ft !!

[Mass Tim]

My current guessing policy is to determine everything based on the amount of snowfall here in Massachusetts. Of course it makes no sense, but so what:

June 14th at 5:30 PM

...which may also be the same day and time we can see our lawns around here.

[CalOldBlue]

For no particular reason than symmetry: 6/7 at 8:09am