Winter Rite of Passage: Tioga Pass Prognosticator #12

[Mark Sedenquist]

Tioga Pass Prognosticator #12
This is our twelfth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. (I know it just opened for the 2011 travel season, and the road isn't even dry from the snow melt, but time marches on...Even worse, the Grand Prize Winner from the 11th Prognosticator hasn't even received her goodies yet.. but soon.)

For all of those folks who think that Tioga Pass is not a big deal... one of our long-time roadtripper colleagues remembers driving it in the 1930's when it was a single lane, dirt track, with no guardrails and drop-offs on both sides of the road....

Last Spring, RTA Forum Member, CAnative, claimed the title of Reigning Chief Prognosticator when she correctly named the opening day and almost the opening time of this famous highway. {CAnative' winning prediction was June 18th at 10 am} Here's the post announcing that achievement. The actual opening was 8:45 am.

We're now looking for the 2nd Winning Prognosticator for the Winter Closing. Previously, it's only been awarded once -- and that was back in 2008.
************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

In the past we've had four winners of the dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) -- Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively, and the first Tioga Pass Prognosticator award was presented to weirj in Winter 2008. We're now looking for our second Tioga Pass Prognosticator for the Winter road closing. Maybe you're the next one?

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th
2001: November 11th

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD

* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening

And here you can monitor current conditions from some Web cams in Yosemite NP.

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

[Mark Sedenquist]

Casting the first dart in the annual predictive effort

Mark

[Lifemagician]

13th November, after the overnight snow storm.

Lifey

[Mark Sedenquist]

Lifey,

Don't forget, your dart throw doesn't count unless you also ping the poll above. And you have to identify a specific time if you want to have a chance to win the prize!

[Lifemagician]

How and where?

[Mark Sedenquist]

This is exactly like the other 11 TPP's we've done -- Don't you see a poll on the top of the page? If so, you need to "vote" for your day.

You check the date closest to your selection and then you need to identify the time in a post.

Mark

[Mark Sedenquist]

Lifey,

Thanks for "voting" for your choice, or as Sheriff Dave says..."Pinging the Poll"

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

With the temps set to touch almost 90F this weekend in Yosemite valley and the pass not long open, it's not easy to think about the winter closure, although I guess it could be as little as 15 weeks away. Scary thought !

I'm going with Nov 28th @ 3pm.

Good luck to all you prognosticators !

[Lifemagician]

... it's not easy to think about the winter closure

Not here it ain't. I'm Freezen'! It hasn't been above 15 for days now.

Yeah! alright... I know you lot get much colder, but this is too cold for me.

Lifey

[CAnative]

Yikes. I'm still in summer/ fall mode plus my sons and nephews are planning to climb Mt Whitney on Saturday. Weather forecast is for 15 to 20 inches of SNOW over the next 36 hours in Yosemite. I would vote my birthday but it's not 15 days away. So I'm going to guess Nov 15th at 4 pm and my husband's guess is Nov 29th at 4 pm. Official announcements were made on Wednesdays through Spring so I'll hope for press releases on Nov 16 and Nov 30th.