Tioga Pass Prognosticator #17

[Mark Sedenquist]

Tioga Pass Prognosticator #17
Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. For all of those folks who think that Tioga Pass is not a big deal... one of our long-time roadtripper colleagues remembers driving it in the 1930's when it was a single lane, dirt track, with no guardrails and drop-offs on both sides of the road.... This year, finds California in the midst of one of the worst droughts on record -- and we suspect it was more about a lack of funding that led to the winter closure of this memorable pass than snow accumulation on the road. Clearly, climate change appears to be affecting the Tioga Pass Prognostication "game." There was no official winner of the Chief Prognosticator (TPP) for the Winter Closing, but Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), was awarded the Winter dcTPP (darn-close prognosticator). There have only been four other TPPs awarded since this featured event began in Spring, 2006. Although one of this elite group, Jessica Beagles-Roos, the current dcTPP, managed to predict the winning date with back-to-back predictions for the Spring opening and Winter closing in 2011.

There are five other dcTPPs... Jessica Beagles-Roos CaNative, Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2013, 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively.

Rainfall & snow predictions will probably be trickier than normal this year. Do you have what it takes to be the new Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator?

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Official Tioga Pass Openings in recent years:
2014: May 2nd (Noon)
2013: May 11th (Noon)
2012: May 7th (Noon)
2011: June 18th (8:45 am)
2010: June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th -

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD*
Please read entry rules carefully
To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing...
Spring 2012 Opening
Fall 2012 Closing
Spring 2013 Opening!
Winter, 2013 Closing

Past honorees with their POG photos: (Proof of Gas...)


Current reigning TPP is George Carey (glc) shown posing above with this RoadTrip Ride at the local Conoco station.


JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): Winter Closing 2011 Tioga Pass Prognosticator


JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): 2011 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator


BRIAN SHANNON, (Exodus): 2010 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator


PHIL BOARDMAN, (PhilB): 2009 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

And here you can monitor current conditions from 4 Web cams in Yosemite NP:
Yosemite Falls
El Capitan
Half Dome
High Sierra

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

By the way, click here to see what Half Dome looks like when snow is falling....

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

[Mark Sedenquist]

First Dart in...

Friday, April 4th at 7:45 am

mark

[Lifemagician]

3rd May, 2014 - 10.30am.

Lifey

[Lifemagician]

Now how can I put another in for 14th May. That then covers the May birthdays. The only April birthday has already been taken. :(

May 14th @ 8am

Lifey

[Southwest Dave]

You can't actually 'Ping the Poll' a second time, but your second prediction will stand as it's identified in a post, but can you enter a time to your second choice to validate it. [If it's past the editing window, PM me the time and I will enter it.]

Thanks.

Dave.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Birthdays.... yeah, that's a good idea

OK -- then May 12th at 6:45 am

[Southwest Dave]

It could well be an early opening this year, unless there is significant snowfall in the coming weeks. The most surprising thing at the moment is the fact that the pass has been closed at all. As stated in the opening post, we think it's more about budget issues then it is weather. At this moment there is a reported snow depth averaging around 10 inches between Tuolumne Meadows and the east entry kiosk and in the coming week, all I see on the forecast is blue sky's.

Take a look at this mornings webcam from Sentinnel Dome, incredible !!



By comparison, here is a shot from the same camera on January 13 2010.



Good luck !

Edit : I have just read that 2013 was Yosemite's driest calender year since weather record keeping began in the park. [Possibly 1907 ?]

[Mark Sedenquist]

Dave,

Thanks for posting those two photos. Yep, climate change is a-happening!

Mark

[Lifemagician]

Just remembered another (in-law family) birthday. 27th April - 8.30am.

Lifey

[Utahtea]

ARG....my date is already taken.

I was wondering when the voting would start. We just spent three days in Yosemite last week. It is unbelievable & scary how little snow there is up in the mountains.

IMG_1941.jpg

Since my date is taken, I'll choose May 10th at 8 am.

Utahtea