Advent of the Summer Road Trip Season: Tioga Pass Prognosticator #13

[Mark Sedenquist]

Tioga Pass Prognosticator #13
Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. For all of those folks who think that Tioga Pass is not a big deal... one of our long-time roadtripper colleagues remembers driving it in the 1930's when it was a single lane, dirt track, with no guardrails and drop-offs on both sides of the road....This has been an unprecedented year with the latest ever recorded closing, AND up to the latest snowfall this week, held a real possibility of re-opening.

Last Spring, RTA Forum Member, CAnative, claimed the title of Reigning Chief Prognosticator when she correctly named the opening day and almost the opening time of this famous highway. {CAnative' winning prediction was June 18th at 10 am} Here's the post announcing that achievement. The actual opening was 8:45 am. For the Winter Closing, CAnative reclaimed her title of Reigning Chief Prognosticator when she correctly identified January 17th, 2012. In fact, her predicted closing time of 3:00 pm was very, very close to the actual closing time -- which was 7:00 pm. Here is the announcement of Jessica's remarkable achievement posted on February 17, 2012.

We're now looking for the 4th Winning Prognosticator for the Spring Opening. The real question is.... Can CAnative threepeat this crown?

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

In the past we've had four winners of the dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) -- Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively, and the first Tioga Pass Prognosticator award was presented to weirj in Winter 2008. We're now looking for our fourth Tioga Pass Prognosticator for the Spring road opening. Maybe you're the next one?

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2012: May 7th (Noon)
2011: June 18th (8:45 am)
2010: June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD

* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing...

And here you can monitor current conditions from 4 Web cams in Yosemite NP:
Yosemite Falls
El Capitan
Half Dome
High Sierra

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

[Mark Sedenquist]

First Dart in:

Friday, April 20th at 8:00 am...

(The official closing date from January was my mom's birthday).

I think that we could well see the earliest opening on record this year....

Not scientific -- but look at these photos:


January 13, 2011


February 13, 2012

[dambrogio]

hi we are from uk and will be visiting Yosemite for the first time ever on May 13 2012. We will be travelling from Vegas -3 days yosemite and then on to San Francisco. I was certain when we planned the trip last autumn chances of Tioga Pass being open was minimal - so plan was to go via Bakersfield. However, with the late closure of 120, I am wondering what people think the chances are the Tioga Pass will be open by the 13th May 2012. I would much prefer to go the scenic route via Death Valley, Mammoth Lakes and then onto the Tioga Pass.

I do hope the waterfalls are still gushing though as we are staying at Yosemite Lodge at the Falls.

[Midwest Michael]

Welcome to the RTA Forum!

If we could answer with any degree of certainty when the pass will open, we wouldn't have this fun contest to guess the answer.

There simply will be no way to know for sure until you actually are getting out on the road. With the relatively little amount of snow so far this year, you've got a chance - as you can see Mark is guessing that we'll see the earliest opening in the pass's history - but anything you see now would be just that: a guess. I'd really just tell you to keep your options open at this point.

Of course, you can cast your own guess if you'd like to participate in the contest.

[glc]

From the NPS site:

Clearing of the Tioga Road begins on or about April 15 each year and usually takes between one and two months. Predicting when these roads will open is not possible, even in late spring, because April and May weather significantly affects plowing progress. (April 1 snowpack (water content of the snowpack as a percent of average) for the Tuolumne drainage is listed as a reference.)

So, historically they don't even start plowing till April 15. There may be very little snow up there now, but winter is far from over. The earliest recorded opening date since 1980 is April 29, and that was with a 31% snowpack.

[dambrogio]

Well I am going for

Friday, May 3rd at 8:00 am...


And that is my birthday - so as good a date as any other. Just hope we get a bit of snow over the coming weeks, as would have to see dry waterfalls in May.

Note from the 'Sherrif '.

[May 3rd falls on a Thursday this year. As it is a birthday date, I presume that it is the date you wish to have and not the day and your choice is entered as Thursday May 3rd at 8:am.

[Lifemagician]

Since daughter's birthday (3rd May) has been taken, it will have to be her son's birthday - 14th May by 10am.

I take it you can't have a second shot. I'd put in another one for my birthday, as an outside chance.... 13th June. Wishful thinking... hoping you guys get the snow and water security.

Lifey

[Mark Sedenquist]

Lifey,

Here are the rules related to your question...
* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).

The current reigning Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator made at least three prognostications, it was such a late closing that just about everyone made at least two... The poll doesn't accommodate multiple choices.

***Clarification**
The poll does accommodate multiple entries -- but it only lets you add then when you post the first time (frustrating I know). So if you've already made a poll post, then for follow-up posts, identify them below and one of the Mods will update the poll with your information.

And, given GLC's reminder, about the opening day for snow plow activities, I'm going to choose my birthday as my second choice -- May 12th at Noon.

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

Look at the Webcam image below, taken on Friday 24th Feb and you can clearly see how much snow has melted away when compared to the image captured on Feb 13th, shown in Marks earlier post. [Post 2 of this thread]



I thought we might be looking at the possibility of it re-opening again for a while there, but it's pretty murky up there at the moment and there could be up to 12" of new snow accumulation over the next few days.

[RahRah]

I'm new here, but will throw my hat in....considering base conditions in the area are only 18-30" inches at present, I'm going to go with May 11, 2012 at 8:00 AM for the day and time the pass opens this year!