Spring Rite of Passage: Tioga Pass Prognosticator #11

[brock]

I'm predicting the opening will actually happen on 5/23 because I want to be able to drive it when I'm in that area for the very 1st time! We are touring parts of CA and sure want to drive over Tioga Pass on the way to Lake Tahoe. I'm expecting unseasonally warm weather in May to speed the melting process! (Hopefully without causing other problems.)
Brock

[Southwest Dave]

Hi Brock and welcome to the RTA forums !

Good luck with your prediction and I hope they get it open for you !

[Southwest Dave]

The current view from the Sentinel dome camera.



The latest report from Tuolumne Meadows confirms that it is indeed an 'out of the ordinary' season.

Update for March 30, 2011
Posted: March 31, 2011 | posted by: Jeffrey Trust!
Weather: (March 24 through March 30)
High temp: 53°F (March 30)
Low temp: -1°F (March 25)
New Snow: 38 inches
Total settled snow depth: 84 inches” as of March 31

Ski Conditions and Weather: This winter is one for the record books. In March we received 112 inches of snow, containing 8.01 inches of water. We have received over 35 feet of snow this winter, and winter probably isn't over yet. We reached our maximum snow depth here at the ranger station of 105 inches this week. But don’t let that fool you, higher elevations have much more snow. Our snow survey site at Rafferty Meadows (below Tuolumne Pass) had 145 inches of snow containing 57 inches of water. Only the legendary winter of 1983 dropped more snow (156 inches) at this site, and only the big winter of 1995 dropped more water (58 inches), since record-keeping began at this spot in 1948. With 105 inches of snow, this is the fourth deepest end-of-March snowpack at the Tuolumne Meadows snow survey site since 1930--exceeded only by the winters of 1995 (107”), 1969 (126”), and 1983 (138”). The storms have stopped for now; unsettled weather is expected for the weekend. The snow is settling fast now that the temperatures have warmed up, so expect skiing conditions to change daily.

There is an estimated 15feet of snow at the East Kiosk !

With more unsettled weather due at the weekend and the fact that in 1983 and 1995 [used for comparison above] when the pass didn't open until the very end of June, I am afraid to say that it doesn't look promising for anyone hoping to cross in late May/early June !

[Mark Sedenquist]

It was over 70 degrees F in the Yosemite Valley on Friday morning -- it's cooled a bit now, but it's still melting pretty fast. The following photos were taken on Tuesday, March 29th at about 3:00 pm and Friday, March 31st at about noon or so. I regret that I didn't stand in the same place each time, but you can still see the difference in water flow on the upper falls!


(Photo by Megan Edwards -- March 29th Upper Yosemite Falls)


(Photo by Mark Sedenquist -- March 31st -- Upper and Lower Yosemite Falls)

Mark

[Mark Sedenquist]

Unfortunately, you'll need to employ some imagination here to see the contrast...

But this first photo was taken at about Noon on the 29th of March, taken from Tunnel View... (look at the relative size of Bridalveil Fall in both photos). Also by the time the second photo was taken, all of the snow had melted from the parking lot and the wall I'm sitting on was dry and people were running along it -- Not the case when it has been icy only 48 hours before!


(Photo by Megan Edwards -- March 29th ~ Noon)


(photo by Mark Sedenquist -- March 31st ~ Noon)

Just about every rock surface in the valley was glistening with run-off from the dozens of creeks and streams flowing with snow melt this time of year.


(Photo: Mark Sedenquist, Cascade near Ahwahnee Hotel)

And finally one more of the Upper Yosemite Falls -- Lots of snow melt rushing into space!


(photo: Mark Sedenquist, Upper Yosemite Falls -- March 31st, 2011 at about 8:00 am)

[Southwest Dave]

It's amazing the difference a few [thousand] feet will make, you wouldn't believe it's the same place at the same time of year. Come Thursday at an elevation of 9500 Feet, the daily 'high' is forecast to be 25 degrees F with a night time low of 11 degrees F.

Nice pictures !

[Mark Sedenquist]

Another web cam that is fun to watch is the rise and fall of the Merced River in Yosemite NP. This web cam is updated every five minutes. Also, if you click on the Gauge graph, you can get a sense about what's happening up above the valley since the water in the Merced is fed from those cascades and waterfall.

As recently as last week, the ground in that view had almost a foot of snow on the ground...

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

Mark.

You sure picked a great time for your Yosemite visit, it looks pretty wild there right now, with a Winter storm warning in effect and sub zero temps.

Dave.

[Mark Sedenquist]

I noticed that flow rates have dropped as the freeze sets in... Pretty hairy weather, indeed!

[Southwest Dave]

The official Yosemite 'Opening and closing dates' page has had some new and additional info added, the snow pack percentage as of April 1 each year. As you can see here, this year is the joint second highest year on record at 178% of average.

You will notice that the snow pack and opening date have no real pattern/ connection, as a lot can happen between now and the opening, a quick thaw, a late snow storm, who knows ?

Good luck !