Competition. The 33rd Tioga pass prognosticator. Spring opening 2022 !!

How would you like to win a free tank of gas for your road trip ride and become our Tioga pass Spring opening prognosticator champ!?

Entry to the competition is also free !!

With the Tioga pass closed for the winter it's time to turn our attention to when we think it may open for the 2022 road trip season !

Here's a typical winter scene from the Sentinel webcam in the High Sierra.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0121.jpg

Tioga pass is found in Yosemite National park along California state route 120 where it crosses the Sierra Nevada and is usually the last of the mountain passes to open up across the Sierra's. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. This is a tricky one to predict with our last Spring opening Champion being tantrum in 2015 although Mark Sedenquist is our reigning Tppc (Tioga pass prognosticator champion) when he correctly predicted the winter closing in 2018. Now it's time to see if we can find a new champ who can correctly predict when the pass will open for the Spring of 2022. We don't mind how you do it, you can use a crystal ball, study data or just throw a dart at the calendar, ***as long as you follow the rules posted below.*** So, have you got what it takes to be crowned the Spring 2022 Tioga pass prognosticator ??

The competition.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

The rules

*** To win this prize, your date must be identified in a post on this thread more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga
Pass Road OPENING date.
** ** Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry). *And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
*** Once you have selected your date you must select the relevant date range in the Poll above.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.***

Here is a list of our previous Tioga pass prognosticator Champs.
Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018 (Still holder of the crown !!)
*** tantrum, Spring 2015 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013
Opening Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008 -

......and our list of Dctpp's. (Darn close Tioga pass Prognosticators)
*****************Utahtea Spring 2020
*****************anuj1985 Winter 2019
**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007
(The Winter closing competition was cancelled due to the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic)

Below you will find information from previous years that may help you in your choice.

Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2020 June 15th (9am)
2019 June 21st (9am) *** This was a time restricted opening to traffic and fully opened on July 1st 8am)***
2018 May 21st (9am)
2017 June 29th, (8am)
2016 May 18th (Noon)
2015 May 4th (8 am)
2014 May 2nd (Noon)
2013 May 11th (Noon)
2012 May 7th (Noon)
2011 June 18th (8:45 am)
2010 June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

A link to Yosemites Historical opening and closing dates.

And a webcam view of what's happening in Yosemite right now.
(Scroll down the link to see views from other webcams around Yosemite)

And here are the Spring opening threads from the last decade.

Spring opening 2021
Spring opening 2020
Spring opening 2019
Spring opening 2018
Spring opening 2017
Spring opening 2016
Spring opening 2015
Spring opening 2014
Spring opening 2013
Spring opening 2012
Spring opening 2011

And here are some POG photos. (Proof of gas !)

Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018. (and still reigning Champ !)
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...19_Barstow.jpg

George Carey. Spring opening 2014.(glc)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg

George again in Spring 2013.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg

CAnative Spring 2011
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg

Brian Shannon. (Exodus) Spring, 2010.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg

Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg

Best of luck everyone and here's hoping for a great road tripping year ahead !!

Just catching up with whats been happening in Yosemite and it appears that January has been an extremely dry month and winter seems to have forgotten it's still meant to be winter !! The good news for the snowpack/water table is that this follows one of the wettest Decembers on record meaning that the snowpack is still 92% of average at the beginning of February. (December brought 37% of the annual average of percipitation to Tuolumne meadows) We normally see late winter storms arrive which could top up the 40 inches of accumulated snow depth at the Meadows. The High sierra webcam hasn't updated but here's a view of the Badger pass ski area earlier this month.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...semite-ski.jpg

Throwing in the first dart -- May 12th at 9 am

Nice to see the challenge extended once again.

A winter storm is blasting it's way through the Sierra's at present creating a Winter weather warning from the National weather service.

Quote:

---

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
inches above 3500 feet. Snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches from
1500 feet to 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2
inches from 1000 feet to 1500 feet.

* WHERE...The Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills from Fresno
County northward.

* WHEN...Valid until 4 PM PST Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Early season campers
and hikers should be prepared for a return to winter
conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

---

With a cold East wind temperatures could drop to a rather chilly -10F tonight !!

Dave.

May 20th at 9 AM

There has been a mix of weather over the last few weeks bringing cold nights and some warm days, followed by Northeast winds that brought some much welcomed fresh snow.

This photo was captured by Yosemite rangers on March 2nd from Elizabeth lake, a couple of miles south of Tioga pass and Tuolumne meadows.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...d-2022_web.jpg

Snow is likely today and then clearing until the weekend when more is expected on the high ground.

This is a cool video giving an insight into the plowing effort that usually starts around the middle of April.

Dave.

May 23 - 9 am

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Southwest Dave

This is a cool video giving an insight into the plowing effort that usually starts around the middle of April.

---

Dave, THANKS FOR reposting that video -- It is a good reminder of the work those crews do.

Mark

Is this where I guess the opening date of Tioga Road? If so, hopeful thinking suggests May 9, 2022 (8:00AM).

Hello Limane and welcome to RTA !

Yes this is the right place to submit your prediction, but can you go to the Poll at the top of the thread and select the appropriate date range to validate your entry.

Dave.

(We also have Mass Tim who has pinged the poll but not identified a date and time in a post, so please ensure you do both to validate your entry)

Following on from heavy snows in December 2021, 2022 has been a dry one so far and early signs are indicating a low April 1st snowpack survey for a 3rd year of drought in a row, possibly the lowest amount for 7 years. The April 1st readings are thought to be the most important, with the snowpack at it's peak and when the melt off to reservoirs accelerates, this is the time the water dept gauges the water supply for the year. Looks like a year of restrictions ahead. Lets hope for a few late winter storms to help top up that water table !

Below is an update posted by Yosemite, as thought it's not good news !

Quote:

---

The April 1 snow surveys showed that snowpack is at 41% of average for this time of year in both the Merced and Tuolumne river basins. The snowpack accumulated during the very wet months of October and December, but has since been slowly whittled away by the record-dry months of January, February, and March. Snow is melting quickly, and the Merced River may reach peak flow as early as this week.

---

Dave.

I was inclined to pick May 9th, but I see it's been taken. Then, I was going to take May 12th, but it's also been taken! So, I'm going go with May 5th (noon).

There is a little snow forecast for the second half of the week but it doesn't look as though it will amount to much. We should see the plows starting to work on the pass next week and some reports coming in. Normally the Glacier point road plowing gives some indication as to whether or not it could be an early or late opening, but this year it is going to remain closed the entire year for improvement and rehabilitation works. Thats a huge miss for visitors this year as the only way to get to Glacier point will be via one of the strenuous hiking trails.

Dave

Plowing started on April 15th and the crews have got as far as Tenaya lake, but following the storm on the 22nd and 23rd of April they are expecting to find several feet of new snow along the entire road which is likely to set them back.

Dave.

1. Mark Sedenquist picked May 1- 10 in poll, but selected May 12 in post. Can he still win without correcting it?

2. I was planning to pick May 9 before it was already selected by someone, then coveted by someone else. And that was before recent storms.

It's been a weird year with enough snow to open Mammoth continuously in late Oct. (Palisades, formerly known as Squaw, opened for Halloween weekend then closed). I skied Mammoth Nov 10-11 after a small storm refreshed the surface and again Nov 30-Dec 1 when I was able to return home via 9,624' Sonora Pass that had re-opened (and saves me a lot of miles). Then there was record snow in December, mostly in the 2nd half of the month before it stopped in Jan.

Mammoth recorded 0 snow in Jan and only 7" in Feb and 14" in Mar (other source says 27" Jan-Mar). Then there has been 34" in April (other source says 39"). Palisade (NW of Tahoe) had 44" Jan - Mar and 86" in Apr while Kirkwood (SW of Tahoe and where I plan to be tomorrow) had 48" Jan-Mar and 55" in April. So all three ski areas had more snow in April than January through March. Snowpack is Sierra is 35% of normal, with S lagging behind N in recent storms.

3. My pick is Wednesday May 18 at 9 AM. I had thought about later in the next week, but going with this pick as it's the same date that Tioga opened when Memorial Day was last on May 30. Opening date will mostly depend on how much more falls this Spring (which I don't think will ne much) and how hard NPS works getting it open.

Yes it's been a strange one, summed up on April 13th with the final post from the Tuolumne winter rangers shwon below.

Quote:

---

This is our final post of the 2021-2022 season. It has again been an honor and pleasure to serve in the capacity of the Tuolumne Meadows winter rangers. When we arrived in early December, we were soon buried by the 171 inches of new snow that fell over the next three weeks. Just when we thought we couldn’t shovel anymore, the faucet turned off. We certainly did not anticipate the remaining four consecutive months to be the driest on record. It has been an “upside-down” winter, where the snow and water content peaked in December and slowly diminished thereafter. From a winter recreation perspective, the heavy snows of December were timely (way better than March!) and for this we are grateful. After eleven winters here in Tuolumne we have come to expect the unexpected. Our first winter of 2011–2012 did not see any snowfall until late January, which at least made the ice-skating enthusiasts on Tenaya Lake happy.

The weather this week saw near record-high temperatures in the 60s for three days and ended with some snow and sub-zero temperatures. We took advantage of the heat wave and just enough snow coverage in order to ski up to near Donohue Pass. Despite the record dry past four months, the ski touring and corn cycle were excellent, though limited to appropriate aspect and elevation. As we traversed below what was once the Lyell Glacier it wasn’t difficult to envision the disappearing snow and ice across the globe. The glacier is now considered an stagnant ice patch because it is no longer moving downhill and is rapidly diminishing in size. Not only is there less annual global coverage of snow and ice but it has been melting earlier (Brown, 2000; Clow, 2010; Easterling et al., 2016; Kunkel et al., 2009-b; Liston and Hiemstra, 2011). This spring in Yosemite, the river flows are peaking in early April instead of late May or June. Just remember that if you live in the American West, your water probably came from the sky in the form of a beautiful, delicate snowflake. Each and every dendrite is as beautiful and as important as all life on this fragile little planet including you! So please, take care of one another and our only home, Mother Earth.

---

Dave.

The crews have plowed the lenght of the road now they have to open it up, clear all the debris and get the service areas cleared and de-winterized and tasks such as repairing the road and remove any trees that may cause a risk. In other words, still a lot to do !!

I am opting for May 25th at 3pm.

There is a Hazardous weather warning in place with regards to strong winds in and around Yosemite and not ideal for Plow crews to be working in. We can also expect a few inches of fresh snow from now through until Weds.

Dave

Ebbetts and Sonora Passes to open today (Thursday 5/12) at 2 PM. This is even though there were much colder than normal temps and some snow earlier in week.

Details in story says Sonora opened May 3, 2018, May 15, 2020 and May 6, 2021 and other records say Tioga opened May 21, 2018, June 15, 2020 and May 27, 2021. These were the last 3 low snow years as both 2017 and 2019 were high snow years. If you throw out 2020 as there were probably pandemic-related delays, using only 2018 and 2021 Tioga opened 19.5 days after Sonora which would put Tioga opening on May 31 or June 1. I would not be surprised to see Tioga open before Memorial Day which means @Southwest_Dave could be closest of current entries.

The Tioga pass opens to bicycles today and will be open to them tomorrow before being closed again, due to possible hazards during construction repairs between May 23rd through to 26th.

On the 27th it is due to open to all vehicles at 9am !

(DANG!! I originally chose this date for myself and then second guessed it and chose the 25th at 3pm instead, putting me 42 hours out !)

Dave

Sheriff Dave, so very close... and yet so far!

That's pretty funny.

Mark

Sounds like our dam. Open it for the weekend, close it the following week. Not a done deal, yet, Dave, it sounds like. Could be you, could be me (23rd). I took a Monday. They seem to think of Memorial Day Weekend.


Donna

Yes I think you were unfortunate there Donna. After opening to cycles it's usually just a case of opening up to motorized vehicles a day or 2 later.

As always we will wait for official confirmation and that's taken a while in recent times !

Dave.

My local paper and https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/conditions.htm both say 9 AM today.

I skied Palisades Tahoe (formerly Squaw Valley) on Sun 5/22 (leaving home at 4:20 AM), stayed in South Lake Tahoe that night (left cabin at 5:20 AM the next morning - friend staying with me left almost an hour earlier) and drove to Mammoth where I skied with old and new friends Mon and Tues. Attachment 5093
Since Tioga was still closed, I returned to San Jose over 300' lower, but much steeper and ~35 mile longer Sonora Pass. Sonora does not take much longer as even though it is steeper and very winding in places, Tioga has more tourist traffic and lower speed limits (and speeding is a Federal crime that can mean return to Yosemite).
Attachment 5092
My drive also included going past some of the highest gas prices in the country at Bridgeport, CA.
Attachment 5091
I paid just over $5 at Gardnerville, NV (60 mi. N of Bridgeport) on way from Tahoe and in Manteca, CA (150 mi. W with some of the cheapest gas in CA) on my way home. Mammoth also has high gas prices. This was a block or two from our motel in Mammoth.
Attachment 5090

I really love the drive over Sonora Pass. One year, I was third car over the pass.

Snow is predicted for this weekend at Lake Tahoe -- so an opening for Tioga is somewhat unlikely I would think. And/or it might be a brief opening.

I couldn't find the photo I was looking for, but this was taken from Sonora Pass in 2004:
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...-Pass-2004.jpg

Mark

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tseeb

My drive also included going past some of the highest gas prices in the country at Bridgeport, CA.

---

My goodness, haven't seen anything approaching those prices yet!

I can still buy gas here for $3.82 at Walmart.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by glc

I can still buy gas here for $3.82 at Walmart.

---

You sure know how to make an Englishman weep !

Dave

What are you paying now - about $8 US for a US gallon?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by glc

What are you paying now - about $8 US for a US gallon?

---

Yes, that's a good ball park figure, higher prices as you would expect on Motorways.

You think that's bad, look at this...........

Attachment 5094

That's like Death valley prices !

I cant find any updates on the status of Tioga pass. It still states that it will open on the 27th at 9am (yesterday) but on Yosemites road status page it remains listed as closed.

Dave.

Yes, I would think the chance of snow would keep it closed for another few days.

Thanks for the update!

Mark

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Southwest Dave

That's like Death valley prices !

---

Worse. It's "only" $6.70 at Panamint Springs.

On Yosemite's 'Tioga road plowing update' page it states that the road opened as planned on Friday 27th May at 9am and on the 'Alerts in effect' section it now only mentions Glacier point road being closed. However, on the 'Current conditions' page under the Road status listing it is still saying 'Closed'. It would appear they have updated one page but not the other, or it opened then closed again due to weather, so as usual we will wait for the official confirmation, but going by recent history we might have to wait a while !

Dave.

It looks pretty spectacular in Yosemite right now with temperatures in the valley forecast at 77F and up on the high ground at over 8000 ft it could reach 67F tomorrow !

From the Sentinel cam today.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel-2022.jpg

The Tioga pass is confirmed as open on the Yosemite's road status listing so all we have to do is wait for the confirmation of the actual date it opened.

If it is May 27th as I expect, it looks to me as though it will be the first time since records began in 1933 that it has opened on the same date 2 years running.

Dave

The Yosemite Facebook team have replied to my question on their page (Perhaps I have prompted them to update Status page?) and they confirmed that the Tioga pass did open on May 27th as scheduled. It looks as though we may have a new Dctpp (Darn close Tioga pass prognosticator) which happens to be ..........ME ! (Nothing dodgy going on here I assure you ;-) )

I shall Thank them and give them a little 'nudge' to update the 'Historical opening and closing' page.

Dave.

That is absolutely TOO funny! :-)


Donna