Competition: Tioga pass prognosticator No 29. (Spring opening 2020)

Howdy. This is the 29th consecutive Tioga Pass Prognosticator where we invite you to predict the future status of the Tioga pass and have the chance to win a tank of gas for your road trip ride!!

Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring across the Sierra Nevada. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. Our last competition saw Mark Sedenquist hold on to his crown as champ in the 2018 winter closing comp, but member anuj1985 became the new Dctpp (Darn close tioga pass prognosticator)in the winter closing 2019 comp. Now it's time to see if we can find a new champ who can correctly predict when the pass will open for the Spring of 2020. We don't mind how you do it, you can use a crystal ball, study data or just throw a dart at the calendar, as long as you follow the rules posted below. So, have you got what it takes to be crowned the Spring 2020 Tioga pass prognosticator Champ ?

If you want to win a tank of gas for your road trip ride, read on.

The contest.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

Just follow the rules below and good luck !!

*** To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date. **Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread
** ** Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry). *And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
*** Once you have selected your date you must select the relevant date range in the Poll above.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

A wonderful capture from the Sentinel Webcam.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0121.jpg Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy

Our reigning Tioga Pass Prognosticator champ is Mark Sedenquist who correctly predicted the 2018 winter closing contest and here's a list of all our previous winners.

Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:

Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018
*** tantrum, Spring 2015 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013
Opening Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008 -

***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)

*****************anuj1985Winter 2019
**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Below is some info on previous years you may find helpful.

Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2019 June 21st (9am) *** This was a time restricted opening to traffic and fully opened on July 1st 8am)***
2018 May 21st (9am)
2017 June 29th, (8am)
2016 May 18th (Noon)
2015 May 4th (8 am)
2014 May 2nd (Noon)
2013 May 11th (Noon)
2012 May 7th (Noon)
2011 June 18th (8:45 am)
2010 June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

A link to previous opening and closing dates on Yosemite's official page.

And a list of dates for other Sierra Nevada passes.

And a view of whats happening right now in Yosemite.

And here are some Spring opening threads from the last decade !

Spring opening 2019.
Spring opening 2018
Spring opening 2017
Spring opening 2016
Spring opening 2015
Spring opening 2014
Spring opening 2013
Spring opening 2012
Spring opening 2011
Spring opening 2010

And some POG photos from previous winners. (Proof of gas)

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...19_Barstow.jpg
Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg
George Carey (glc) Spring opening 2014.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg
George again! Spring opening 2013

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg
CAnative Spring 2011

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg
Brian Shannon. (Exodus) Spring, 2010.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg
Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009

So what are you waiting for ? Get your predictions posted and give yourself a chance to win a tank of gas for your road trip !!

Generally speaking it looks quite settled up on the pass at the moment although there are a few light snow flurries in the weather forecast. This is the current scene from the Sentinel Webcam that shows a light dusting of snow at this time.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...nel-1-2020.jpg

Dave.

I’m picking May 22 at 8 am

Utahtea

Please don't forget to 'ping' the poll above and select the date range of your predictiction.

Dave.

May 20, 8 am.

Friday, May 1st at 9 am.

I'd like to pick my birthday -- May 12th -- but I think it is going to be an early opening this year.

Kudos to Sheriff Dave for getting this TPP contest set up and off-for-the-hills again!

Mark

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Friday, May 1st at 9 am.

I'd like to pick my birthday -- May 12th -- but I think it is going to be an early opening this year.

Kudos to Sheriff Dave for getting this TPP contest set up and off-for-the-hills again!

Mark

---

I was going to pick the 12th because it’s my grandson’s birthday but I’m optimistically hoping for a lot of late snow so I went later in the month.

Utahtea

It could well be an early opening this year unless we get some late winter storms, which is entirely possible.

Here is a report from the National weather service.

Quote:

---

Current Snowpack Conditions -
Everywhere from the Northern portions of the Klamath Basin down to
the Tulare Basin in the Southern Sierra Nevada is experiencing
much below average snowpack. February precipitation totals were
one of the lowest on record for the State. This dry month has
driven snowpack totals down to around 50% of average over
California for the water year to date, and about 40% of average
for April 1st.

Observed Seasonal Precipitation-
Precipitation totals for the current water year are about 50% of
average to date. December was a near normal month, but that has
been followed by a below average January, and a much below average
February. Last year at this time precipitation totals were about
125% of average.

---

Dave.

Check out the difference between todays image from the Sentinel webcam compared to the capture in post 2 of this thread, taken just under a month ago.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...march-2020.jpg

There is more snow expected today before the weather clears overnight through until Sunday, when there is more snow forecast right through until at least the middle of next week.

Dave.

Looking like a nice weather storm.

It is pretty chilly here in the Las Vegas area too.

Mark

Having looked at the Sentinel webcam image a few days ago only to see a white out, I was quite surprised by todays image that shows 'the hump' on the bottom right of the image has reduced.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...ch-30-2020.jpg

This could prove to be another strange year as far as the opening goes, as in if the Tioga pass is officially opened, but the park is still closed due to the Coronavirus. As always I think it's right we should go with the first official announcement.

Dave.

Strange year seems to be the common thread. Have you seen evidence that Caltrans has started work on the road yet?

How are things with you WRT COVID-19 and your business? Crews still going out to sea?

Mark

And now a gorgeous view from the eastern Sierra Nevada! Spring weather at it's finest.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog..._0330_2020.jpg
Courtesy of the Mt. Whitney Cam

From the NPS Yosemite website:

Tioga Road
Tioga Road opened to traffic during limited hours on June 21 and to unrestricted travel on July 1, 2019.

Opening operations for 2020 will begin on or about April 15, 2020. Updates will appear here shortly thereafter.

Glacier Point Road
Glacier Point Road opened for the season to vehicles on May 10, 2019.

Opening operations for 2020 will begin on or about April 15, 2020. Updates will appear here shortly thereafter.

Glacier Point Road will be closed to all traffic in 2021 to rehabilitate and improve the road. The only access to Glacier Point will be via the Four Mile, Panorama, and Pohono Trails, all of which are strenuous hikes.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by glc

From the NPS Yosemite website:

Glacier Point Road will be closed to all traffic in 2021 to rehabilitate and improve the road. The only access to Glacier Point will be via the Four Mile, Panorama, and Pohono Trails, all of which are strenuous hikes.

---

Wow ! For us Glacier point was one of the highlights of the park. Still well worth visiting Yosemite but this wil be a big miss for those that haven't been before.

Dave.

Another beautiful day in Yosemite
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0401.jpg
Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Looking like a nice weather storm.

It is pretty chilly here in the Las Vegas area too.

Mark

---

Just heard on the news that the Northern Sierra's snowpack is only 53% of normal. We need that snow!

Utahtea

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Strange year seems to be the common thread. Have you seen evidence that Caltrans has started work on the road yet?

How are things with you WRT COVID-19 and your business? Crews still going out to sea?

Mark

---

No evidence of Caltrans on CA120 although work in the park doesn't normally begin until around April 15th.

We are still trading at present, as suppiers of fresh produce we are regarded as 'essential' and particularly for those customers with dietary requirements. Also the fresh air and more open surroundings of the beach is not a bad place to go for shopping when compared to the queues at the supermarkets. The only thing we can see changing this situation, is if they closed the port, but as it is mainly a fishing harbour for local boats and small vessels we hope this won't be the case.

Off topic a little lighthearted news. These goats that reside on the Great Orme in North Wales ( who don't normally head anywhere near the town of Llandudno) have totally ignored government Social distancing measures and have decided to go out dining in town.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMUlppJbbI8

I wonder if we will see more of this behaviour, more bears etc wandering down out of the hills into Yosemite valley and surrounding towns.

I don't know if the bears would wander into town. They might find it nice to have the natural areas of the park to themselves.

Thanks for sharing the goat video!

Mark

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...April-2020.jpg

Heavy snow is falling in the Sierra Nevada bringing several feet of snow and hazardous conditions.

From the National weather centre.

Quote:

---

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAYABOVE 5000 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 5000 feet. Three to four feet
of snow is likely above 7000 feet. Two to three feet of snow
is expected from 5000 to 7000 feet. The majority of this snow
will fall Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Winds could gust
as high as 50 mph on exposed ridgetops and along the crest.

* WHERE...Southern Sierra Nevada above 5000 feet.

* WHEN...The Winter Storm Warning is valid from 8 AM PDT Sunday
morning until 5 PM PDT Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be extremely difficult or nearly
impossible. Tire chains will likely be required. Expect road
closures due to snow cover. If you plan to travel, consider
alternate strategies.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

---

The Humpeth is Back!

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0406.jpg
April 6th at 8:30 am PDT.
Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy.

I think that's the biggest hump we have had this year and there is more heavy snow sweeping through today. The latest from the National weather services Storm warning below.

Quote:

---

Mon Apr 6 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000 FEET...

* WHAT...Continued heavy snow expected above 5000 feet. Three to
four feet of total snow accumulation is likely above 7000 feet.
A total of two to three feet of snow is expected from 5000 to
7000 feet. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph on exposed
ridgetops and along the crest.

* WHERE...Central Sierra, North Kings River and Sequoia Kings
Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM PDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be extremely difficult or nearly
impossible. Tire chains will likely be required. Expect road
closures due to snow cover. If you plan to travel, consider
alternate strategies.

---

Beautiful Eastern morning on the eastern range of the High Sierra
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...itney-0412.jpg
Mt. Whitney, California.

Eastern High Sierra Range when we were there on Feb. 28th. This was taken near Alabama Hills and it's hard to tell by the small picture but the snow looks the same.

Attachment 4952


and after two days of snow this was the view from our campground when we left on March 2nd

Attachment 4953

A really fast melt! I bet the waterfalls are gorgeous about now.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0416.jpg
Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy -- 0930 am PDT.

Speaking of which -- check out the live feed now!

With the park closed the wildlife are enjoying their freedom. This coyote has a great view of Yosemite falls as he takes a rest in the parking lot !

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...mite-falls.jpg

I can't find any info as yet on whether or not the crews are going to be plowing during the shutdown period. Work normally begins around April 15th but there has been no updates.

Dave.

There doesn't appear to be much going on in the way of a plowing effort from the road crews but the weather seems to be doing a pretty good job of clearing the snow as this image shows.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...27th-20202.jpg

Dave.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Southwest Dave

With the park closed the wildlife are enjoying their freedom. This coyote has a great view of Yosemite falls as he takes a rest in the parking lot !

---

Wow, what a very cool shot. Where did this come from?

Mark

Thats from the Yosemite NPS facebook page. They have a couple of cool videos as well, I sure wouldn't mind being one of the few who are isolating there right now !

Dave.

I've wondered if they'll even bother to plow the road this year. With the park closed and California still on lockdown (they're reclosing the previously opened beaches and parks), I'm thinking that they'll let nature do the hard work of clearing the roads?


Donna

Yes I think you are right Donna, for now they may well leave it to nature to 'work' on the snow. Although it will still require manpower to clear debris and inspect the roadway condition, so it's a bit of a balancing act between not wasting resources and being ready for opening up to the public. (I'm not sure social distancing is an issue up on the Tioga pass for the crews)

Dave.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DonnaR57

I'm thinking that they'll let nature do the hard work of clearing the roads?

---

Donna, as Sheriff Dave mentions, most of the work has to do with repairing the road from winter storm damage. And the road would probably sustain even more expensive damage if they let the melt happen without active human management. It is even possible, that such damage could close the road "forever."

I think they will need to spend the time and $$ to repair the road -- even if they never open it to the public.

These certainly are interesting times!

Mark

I didn't look for this until last night when it was already too late to jump in between Utahtea and Donna and pick May 21, the Thursday before Memorial Day. While I think the week following Memorial Day would also be a good guess, I'm going with June 1st at 9 AM. I think they could have it open earlier this year, like by next Friday May 15, but I'm picking June 1 since Yosemite is still closed and California, who controls access from the East, is probably under stay-at-home order through May 31.

Surprisingly, Monitor and Ebbetts passes are both still closed although Ebbetts looked mostly snowfree at 8,730' summit on April 27. See pictures and story posted at https://californiaalpscycling.bike/2...action-report/ on May 2. Monitor is lower and farther E so it gets less snow.

It appears to be that no road crews are yet working on Tioga pass although the weather continues to do it's best to assist. Temperatures are reaching 80F in the valley and 70F at 8500ft today !!
I can only imagine what a wonderful feeling it must be to be one of the few residing in the park right now.

Dave.

I bet the high country waterfalls are gorgeous about now.

Mark

Monitor Pass opened yesterday, Friday, May 8. Last year, when Tioga did not open for more than 2 hrs. a day traffic until July 1, Monitor opened on April 26. While story at https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/ne...remain-closed/ says "This opening follows weeks of extensive snow and debris removal by Caltrans crews..." the snow removal part sounds like BS to me as I think most of it would have melted by now. I tried to find history of CA highway pass openings and found link on first post of this thread and at https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/tiogaopen.htm both go to a dot.ca.gov page that only (so far) including opening and closing dates from last winter and closing dates for this winter. Previously, I think they went to a page with a lot more history.

Yes, I remember that page. Another one that's gone is the full text list of all road conditions in California. Now you have to search road by road.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tseeb

I didn't look for this until last night when it was already too late to jump in between Utahtea and Donna and pick May 21, the Thursday before Memorial Day. While I think the week following Memorial Day would also be a good guess, I'm going with June 1st at 9 AM. I think they could have it open earlier this year, like by next Friday May 15, but I'm picking June 1 since Yosemite is still closed and California, who controls access from the East, is probably under stay-at-home order through May 31.

Surprisingly, Monitor and Ebbetts passes are both still closed although Ebbetts looked mostly snowfree at 8,730' summit on April 27. See pictures and story posted at https://californiaalpscycling.bike/2...action-report/ on May 2. Monitor is lower and farther E so it gets less snow.

---

I guessed May 22 because at the time I was hoping for more snow, which we did get. I was hoping it would open for the Memorial Day weekend but Covid19 happened and if I were to guess now, I’d say it would be after the Memorial Day weekend to avoid holiday crowds.

Utahtea

The road from Lee Vining to Tioga Pass is open, but Yosemite National Park and road through it is still closed. Hope we don't end up with another Sheriff's ruling (or maybe I need to also lobby him). I received the following in an email today (and verified it at https://roads.dot.ca.gov/):

9,945' Tioga Pass:
"TRAFFIC ADVISORY: Caltrans has opened its gate on State Route 120 East leading to Yosemite National Park. However, the park remains closed at this time. Caltrans reminds all Californians that it is important to stay at home to fight the spread of COVID-19. #StayHomeSaveLives" - Caltrans District 9, 5/15/20

9,624' Sonora Pass:
"TRAFFIC ADVISORY: Caltrans has opened Sonora Pass/State Route 108. California's Stay At Home order remains in effect. While the road is now open, a late season winter storm next week may require it to be closed again. Please check quickmap.dot.ca.gov for the latest." - Caltrans District 9, 5/15/20

8,730' Ebbetts Pass:
"Alpine County – The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) announced today it has opened Ebbetts Pass, one of the seasonal highways in the Sierra after completing necessary road repairs and removing winter snow and debris in preparation for the summer season." - Caltrans Disctrict 10, 5/15/20

Quote:

---

The road from Lee Vining to Tioga Pass is open, but Yosemite National Park and road through it is still closed. Hope we don't end up with another Sheriff's ruling (or maybe I need to also lobby him). I received the following in an email today (and verified it at https://roads.dot.ca.gov/):

---

Hi tseeb.

It's quite normal for Caltrans to plow CA120 up to the entry gate of Yosemite, but it has nothing to do with this competition which is only focused on the section of Tioga pass within Yosemite NP between Crane flat and the east entry kiosk.

Dave.