Competition. Tioga Pass Prognosticator No:27. Spring opening.
Welcome !! This is the 27th consecutive Tioga Pass Prognosticator
where we try to guess the future status of this famous road.!
Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring across the Sierra Nevada. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. Our previous contest saw Mark Sedenquist crowned the new TppC (Tioga pass prognosticator Champion) when he correctly predicted the pass would close on November 20th 2018 for the winter season. Now it's time to see if we can find a new champ who can correctly predict when the pass will open for the Spring of 2019. We don't mind how you do it, you can use a crystal ball, study data or just throw a dart at the calendar, as long as you follow the rules posted below. So, have you got what it takes to be crowned Spring 2019 Tioga pass prognosticator Champ ?
Want to win a tank of gas for your road trip ride ?? Read on.
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...
Just follow the rules below and good luck !!
*** To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date. **Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread
** ** Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry). *And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
*** Once you have selected your date you must select the relevant date range in the Poll above.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.
A wonderful capture from the Sentinel web cam taken on January 21st 2019.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0121.jpg Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy
Our reigning Tioga Pass Prognosticator champ is Mark Sedenquist who correctly predicted the 2018 winter closing contest.
Here's the full list of previous Champs.
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018
*** tantrum, Spring 2015 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013
Opening Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008 -
***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007
Below is some info you may find helpful.
Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2018 May 21st (9am)
2017 June 29th, (8am)
2016 May 18th (Noon)
2015 May 4th (8 am)
2014 May 2nd (Noon)
2013 May 11th (Noon)
2012 May 7th (Noon)
2011 June 18th (8:45 am)
2010 June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th
Here is a link to Yosemite's official opening and closing dates page.
And a list of dates for other Sierra Nevada passes.
And here are views of what's happening in Yosemite right now.
And here are some previous Spring opening threads.
Spring opening 2018.
Spring opening 2017.
Spring opening 2016.
Spring opening 2015.
Spring opening 2014.
Spring opening 2013.
Spring opening 2012.
Spring opening 2011.
Spring 2010.
And some POG Photo's. (Proof of Gas)
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...19_Barstow.jpg
Mark Sedenquist Winter Closing, 2018
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg
George Carey (glc) Spring opening 2014.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg
George Carey. Spring opening 2013.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...os-Kingman.jpg
Jessica Beagles-Roos [CAnative] 2011 winter closing.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg
CAnative Spring 2011.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg
Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009
The hump not only returns -- look at the icicle!
A little more snow than we've seen of late: (that brownish color is the upper point of Half Dome, just peeking above the snow hump line)
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0206.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy (February 6th at 8 am PST)
Compare this view with the one taken on January 21st -- you can see that same point!
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0121.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy
Here's a view from the Ahawahnee Meadow about the same time:
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...ahnee_0206.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy (February 6th at 8 am PST)
Most of the web cams located on mountain peaks around the Sierras are now covered with snow! Can't see anything but light through the crystals.
And another shot taken right around 8:15 am -- as the morning light hits El Capitan:
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...eback_0206.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy
And check this out -- taken at 11 am PST -- There has rarely been a "ground level" to show the shadow of the web camera before!
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...me_0206_01.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy
..... but more on the way !
Another significant amount of snowfall is expected through the weekend.
From the National weather service.
Quote:
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to
three feet likely, with isolated amounts of four feet near
Yosemite National Park. A few inches of snow is possible in
elevations between 3,000 and 4,000 feet. Winds could gust as
high as 65 mph on exposed ridgetops and near the crest.
* WHERE...Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon and Tulare
County mountains.
* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage. The cold
wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on
exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
Proof of Gas on Route 66!
Check out the latest Proof of Gas (PoG) photo in the first post of this thread!
This sounds pretty challenging for motorists.
Nice picture Mark, good to see a new winner photo.
The weather looks pretty awful for the rest of the week in the Sierra's with plenty more snow forecast but for now there are Flood warnings issued with a mix if rain and snow melt.
From the weather centre. Flood watch.
Quote:
The Flood Watch continues for
* A portion of central California, including the following
areas, Kern County Mountains, Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno
County Foothills, Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon,
Tulare County Foothills, and Tulare County Mountains.
* Through Thursday morning
* Heavy rainfall can be expected over much of the area through
Thursday morning. The combination of rain and rapidly melting
snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra will increase the
threat of potentially serious flooding during the next 24 hours,
especially at elevations below 5,000 feet.
* Rising waters can be expected along many rivers and streams
through Thursday morning with the possibility of substantial
flooding in the foothills in addition to mud slides, rock
slides and debris flows.
And storm warning with up to 7 feet of snow at the higher elevations !
Quote:
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST
THURSDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET...
* WHAT...Snow levels are now expected to remain above 8000 feet
through Thursday afternoon and will lower to around 5500 feet by
Thursday evening. Total snow accumulations of around 1 foot
above 7000 feet, 3 to 5 feet above 8000 feet with amounts up to
7 feet above 9000 feet. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph
above 9000 feet.
* WHERE...Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon and Tulare
County Mountains.
* WHEN...Through 10 PM PST Thursday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
or evening commute. Very strong winds could cause extensive
tree damage.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...nel_0213-1.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy -- February 13th at 4:20 pm PST
(Wow, not even snowing -- but more on the way!)
Dave.
Good news for water levels.
Yeah certainly good for the water table Donna although it looks like the weather is drying out for the weekend, which is good news for me ! ;-)
I better get a prediction in. June 5th at 11am.
Dave.
And a view of Mt. Whitney this morning
Now, that's a lot of snow!
This is, I think, the most snow I've ever seen on this camera!
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0217.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy -- February 17th at 11:33 am PST
If you squint you can just barely see the tip of the tallest pine on the ridge. The way to find that is too look at the snow-covered bough on the top left-hand side of the image and then trace the rising snow line (left to right) about three feet and that tip is just barely noticeable.
***Update -- just saw another view -- that tip is gone -- this is some deep snow**
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...hnee2_0217.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy -- February 17th at 11:38 am PST
And this might be the most snow I've ever seen in the Ahwanee Meadow, (at least in the recent years).
Mark
A new day dawns in the High Sierra
Half Dome returns -- and the hump begins to recede.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0224.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy -- February 24th at 09:42 am PST
And Mt. Whitney is looking quite grand as well!
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...ney_0224-1.jpg
Photo courtesy of whitneyzone.com.
The holes are filled in with fresh snow
New fresh snow over the weekend.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0305.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy -- March 5th at 09:20 am PST
And some more fresh white stuff
More snow today!
It is hard to believe that we used to "mourn" the shrinkage of the mound by this date in recent years.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_0328.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy -- March 28th at 02:20 pm PDT
So, yeah, I am going to update my dart... June 10th at 9 am.
Mark
All points to a late opening.
The April 1st snow pack report is in and it stands at 176% of average. That's the 3rd highest amount since 1984 and only 2% down on the joint highest amounts in that period in 2011 and 1995. That all points to a later than usual opening of the pass, but much will depend on future weather conditions between now and the opening date.
The High Sierra webcam is having technical issues again, but this amazing image is taken from the Tuolumne winter conditions page on Yosemite's official site. It was taken on March 31st looking south from Mt Lyell. The reported total snow depth at 8600 feet is 90 inches. That's a lot of snow !!
https://www.nps.gov/yose/blogs/image...from-lyell.jpg
Dave.
The plough crews have some work to do this year.
The ploughing effort usually gets underway around April 15th each year, just a few days from now. It looks like they have a heck of a lot of work ahead of them to get the pass open !
Here is a great photo of the east entry kiosk showing just how much snow was on the pass at March 11th 2019 !
https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvis...torotate=false
Clearing effort has begun.
The crews have started work on the pass but as expected, there is a lot of work ahead.
From the Yosemite website.
Quote:
The focus was on clearing downed trees and debris. The crew drove a snowcat to South Fork Bridge (eight miles from Tuolumne Grove, near Crane Flat) and found snow depths of five to seven feet, with deeper snow expected further up the road.
Glacier point road has been ploughed along it's length so most of the effort is now on Tioga pass apart from some crews remaining to clear turn outs and parking lots on Glacier point road. There is no estimated time for the road to open.
This picture shows an avalanche zone near Tenaya Lake taken on April 24th 2019.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...naya-lake..jpg
Dave.
