Competition time. Welcome to the 39th Tioga pass Prognosticator. Spring opening 2025

[Southwest Dave]

Tioga pass Prognosticator. Spring 2025 opening competition.

Our 39th Tioga pass prognosticator offers you the opportunity to win a free tank of gas for your Road trip ride! It's free to enter and all you have to do is predict the correct date that the Tioga pass will open for the 2025 Road trip season. Tioga pass (aka CA120)crosses the Sierra Nevada in Yosemite NP at high altitude, and is one of the most dramatic drives for scenery anywhere in the world! It's a popular route for travellers who wish to traverse the mountains East to West, or vice versa, but come winter, snowfall and ice will close the road for the winter months, usually during November and December and remains closed until May or June and even into July, depending on the impact of winter. The plowing effort to clear the road of snow and ice, and debris from fallen trees and rock etc, starts in April and can take several weeks to clear. Not only is it a mammoth undertaking, there is also the risk of late winter storms slowing, or halting progress for the road crews!

Are you are up for the Challenge to become the new Tioga pass Prognosticator Champion and get a Tank of gas for your road trip ride?

All you have to do is follow the rules posted further down the page to predict the correct opening date for Spring 2025 and a tank of gas is yours! It doesn't matter how you get there, you can study data, use a crystal ball or throw a dart at a calendar, you just need the correct date. You can also add a bonus prize, enter a time and if you are within 60 minutes of the official opening time you will get an additional gift from RTA!

A view of Half dome from the High Sierra webcam on Feb 8th 2024.

Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

So far this season, it's been a pretty uneventful and dry winter season. January was drier and warmer than average and February has managed just one significant snowstorm that brought with it almost 4feet of new snow. Here's what it looks like form the High Sierra webcam this morning.

Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

The Competition.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.***)
Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him..

The Rules.

*** To win this prize, your date must be identified in a post on this thread more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date.
** ** Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry). *And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
*** Once you have selected your date you must select the relevant date range in the Poll above.
*** A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member so make sure your date hasn't been claimed already. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
***The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.***

Additional info.
Here's a list of previous TPPC's. (Tioga pass prognosticator champions)
Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018 (Still holder of the crown !!)
*** tantrum, Spring 2015 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013
Opening Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008 -

And previous DCTPP (Darn close Tioga pass prognosticators)
***************tseeb Spring opening 2024
***************liam2k04 Winter closing 2023
***************Mark Sedenquist 2023 Spring opening
***************Southwest Dave Winter closing 2022
***************Utahtea Spring 2020
***************anuj1985 Winter 2019
**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

This list contains previous opening dates to help you along.
2024 June 10th
2023 July 22nd. (Very late on this record breaking year!)
2022 May 27th 9am
2021 May 27th (9am)
2020 June 15th (9am)
2019 June 21st (9am) *** This was a time restricted opening to traffic and fully opened on July 1st 8am)***
2018 May 21st (9am)
2017 June 29th, (8am)
2016 May 18th (Noon)
2015 May 4th (8 am)
2014 May 2nd (Noon)
2013 May 11th (Noon)
2012 May 7th (Noon)
2011 June 18th (8:45 am)
2010 June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

This link contains Yosemite NP official opening/closing page with links to current conditions, weather forecasts and more.

And this link shows live pictures from the Sentinel webcam.

Links to previous Spring opening competitions.

Spring opening 2024
Spring 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015

Here are some of our Lucky winners filling up their Road trip rides!

Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018 and still the reigning Champ !


George Carey (glc) Spring opening 2014


George again Spring 2013. (Back to back wins)


CANative Spring 2011.


Brian Shannon. (Exodus) Spring, 2010.


Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009


It's time to find a new Champion Prognosticator! Mark Sedenquist has gotten too comfortable on that Throne! ;-)

Good luck!

Dave

[Southwest Dave]

I have thrown my dart and it landed on May 20th so my prediction is...

May 20th @9am

Dave

[Mark Sedenquist]

Sheriff Dave,

Very cool--getting this thread launched again.

I gotta vote for my birthday. So, May 12th at 8 am.

Thanks,

Mark

[AZBuck]

Actually, I'm going with what the science tells me, and that is that the opening will continue to get earlier and earlier while the closing gets later and later until the two dates meet and Tioga does not close at all. So by April 30th.

AZBuck

[Mark Sedenquist]

That is a depressing thought

[Southwest Dave]

Yeah, lets hope that doesn't happen anytime soon! There's a glimmer of hope as a new snowstorm is due to arrive Saturday night which could bring a total of 14 inches of fresh snow.

It will be interesting to see the numbers as the March 1st snow survey's begin. I was surprised to see that there was 93% of average snow/water content reported on Feb 18th.

Another hazard of the changing weather patterns are avalanches. This image was captured on February 16th by the Yosemite winter Rangers and shows a persistent avalanche slab.



Dave

[Southwest Dave]

There has been a Winter weather advisory released by the National Weather service as follows..

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1057 AM PST Sat Mar 1 2025

CAZ323-326>331-020300-
/O.CON.KHNX.WW.Y.0002.250302T0600Z-250304T0600Z/
Yosemite NP outside of the valley-Upper San Joaquin River-Kaiser
to Rodgers Ridge-Kings Canyon NP-Grant Grove Area-Sequoia NP-
South End of the Upper Sierra-
Including the cities of Wawona, Lake Thomas Edison, Devils
Postpile, Tuolumne Meadows, Lake Wishon, Johnsondale, Shaver
Lake, Huntington Lake, Cedar Grove, Lodgepole, Florence Lake,
Giant Forest, Hume Lake, and Grant Grove
1057 AM PST Sat Mar 1 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 10
inches above 4500 feet. Totals up to 14 inches at the higher
elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of central California.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday
morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.

The view right now from the High Sierra webcam shows the cloud beginning to build.

Image courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy.

Dave

[Southwest Dave]

The snow has arrived and it looks quite heavy on the live Webcam images.

A Snapshot at 4:20pm today.

Image courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy.

Dave

[Southwest Dave]

I checked in on the High Sierra webcam this morning and I just had to share this cool image.


Image Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy.

Still a 30% chance of snow today and then it looks more certain we will get another top up Weds/Thurs.

Dave

[Mass Tim]

My finger-in-the-air estimate gives it as May 15th at 9:30am.