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mid-70's at the pass will certainly be melting that early snow!
Looks like we all betting on a November close this year. Time will tell.
Mark
Before Oct 10
Between Oct 10 and18th
Between Oct 19th and 26th
Between Oct 27th and Nov3rd
Between Nov 4th and 11th
Between Nov 12th and 19th
Between Nov 20th and 28th
Between Nov 29th and Dec 15th
Between Dec 15th and 25th
After Dec 25th
a November close this year?
mid-70's at the pass will certainly be melting that early snow!
Looks like we all betting on a November close this year. Time will tell.
Mark
That recent snow is all gone????
That recent snow is all gone????
I can't even remember seeing Yosemite Falls in October with no water flowing?
Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy -- October 12, 2024
Winter Closing 2024 Prediciton
Looking like a dry fall, so I am going to go with Monday, December 2 at 4:00 pm.
about changing gears
Yes, I am thinking about changing gears and tossing in another dart -- perhaps even later than yours!
Good luck on your prognostication!
Mark
One big storm could change everything.
It was very dry and bright and the Falls were at a trickle when we visited in late October 2007, but it was cold enough to freeze the pass overnight and cause temporary closures. It eventually closed for the season on the 6th December that year.I can't even remember seeing Yosemite Falls in October with no water flowing?
It could well be a late closure, but we know how quickly things can change in the Sierra's.
Dave
Pretty warm October so far in the Sierra's!
Yosemite continues to enjoy blue sky's and settled weather. On Wednesday the temperature is due to peak at around 89F, the average for the month is 71F. While looking at averages, I noticed that Fresno had it's hottest ever recorded temperature in October, on Thursday 3rd it was recorded to be 105F!
Dave
New Prognostication: December 20th
So, in Las Vegas, last week we had triple digits in the valley, and snow fell on the local mountains on Friday morning. So, I would say that the weather is unsettled to be sure.
I think it is less and less likely that we'll see a November closure, so I am going to remove my dart from the 26th of November at 5pm PST and throw a new prognosticator dart on the 20th of December at 8 am PST.
But I would if I could...[I am unable to re_PING the poll]
Mark
Last edited by Mark Sedenquist; 10-20-2024 at 10:53 AM.
So on we go!
I was sort of curious how I had performed as a prognosticator for the TPP for winter closings over the last few years (and obviously I didn't feel like working this morning...) so I looked at the winter closing and openings over the last couple of years.
It was fun looking at our coverage of the heavy snow years!
Winter Prognosticator Closing
My darts: November 15, 2020..........................Actual was November 5, 2020
My darts: Nov. 30, 2021 + Dec. 3, 2021.............Actual was October 21, 2021
My darts: Nov. 21, 2022 .................................Actual was October 31, 2022
My darts: Nov. 17, 2023 + Dec. 8, 2023 ............Actual was November 15, 2023
My darts: Nov. 26, 2024 + Dec. 20, 2024 ..........Actual was...(still pending).......
Interestingly, my first prognosticator guess for Spring Openings was much closer to the mark:
My darts: May 12, 2020..................................Actual was May 27, 2020
My darts: May 12, 2021.................................Actual was May 27, 2021
My darts: May 12, 2023 + July 24, 2023...........Actual was July 22, 2023
My darts: June 7, 2024 ...............................Actual was June 10, 2024
I also looked at the incidence of Winter Closings since 2002. It has occurred in November every year except: 2003, 2004, 2007, 2012, 2021, & 2022.
So on we go!
Mark
No sign of winter just yet!
It looks lovely there this morning!
Image taken from the High Sierra webcam today at 10:50am.
Dave
Nice!
Wow, I didn't know the web camera was back working.
Good Job posting this today!
Mark
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