Competition. The 33rd Tioga pass prognosticator. Spring opening 2022 !!

[Southwest Dave]

Following on from heavy snows in December 2021, 2022 has been a dry one so far and early signs are indicating a low April 1st snowpack survey for a 3rd year of drought in a row, possibly the lowest amount for 7 years. The April 1st readings are thought to be the most important, with the snowpack at it's peak and when the melt off to reservoirs accelerates, this is the time the water dept gauges the water supply for the year. Looks like a year of restrictions ahead. Lets hope for a few late winter storms to help top up that water table !

[Southwest Dave]

Below is an update posted by Yosemite, as thought it's not good news !

The April 1 snow surveys showed that snowpack is at 41% of average for this time of year in both the Merced and Tuolumne river basins. The snowpack accumulated during the very wet months of October and December, but has since been slowly whittled away by the record-dry months of January, February, and March. Snow is melting quickly, and the Merced River may reach peak flow as early as this week.

Dave.

[rans]

I was inclined to pick May 9th, but I see it's been taken. Then, I was going to take May 12th, but it's also been taken! So, I'm going go with May 5th (noon).

[Southwest Dave]

There is a little snow forecast for the second half of the week but it doesn't look as though it will amount to much. We should see the plows starting to work on the pass next week and some reports coming in. Normally the Glacier point road plowing gives some indication as to whether or not it could be an early or late opening, but this year it is going to remain closed the entire year for improvement and rehabilitation works. Thats a huge miss for visitors this year as the only way to get to Glacier point will be via one of the strenuous hiking trails.

Dave

[Southwest Dave]

Plowing started on April 15th and the crews have got as far as Tenaya lake, but following the storm on the 22nd and 23rd of April they are expecting to find several feet of new snow along the entire road which is likely to set them back.

Dave.

[tseeb]

1. Mark Sedenquist picked May 1- 10 in poll, but selected May 12 in post. Can he still win without correcting it?

2. I was planning to pick May 9 before it was already selected by someone, then coveted by someone else. And that was before recent storms.

It's been a weird year with enough snow to open Mammoth continuously in late Oct. (Palisades, formerly known as Squaw, opened for Halloween weekend then closed). I skied Mammoth Nov 10-11 after a small storm refreshed the surface and again Nov 30-Dec 1 when I was able to return home via 9,624' Sonora Pass that had re-opened (and saves me a lot of miles). Then there was record snow in December, mostly in the 2nd half of the month before it stopped in Jan.

Mammoth recorded 0 snow in Jan and only 7" in Feb and 14" in Mar (other source says 27" Jan-Mar). Then there has been 34" in April (other source says 39"). Palisade (NW of Tahoe) had 44" Jan - Mar and 86" in Apr while Kirkwood (SW of Tahoe and where I plan to be tomorrow) had 48" Jan-Mar and 55" in April. So all three ski areas had more snow in April than January through March. Snowpack is Sierra is 35% of normal, with S lagging behind N in recent storms.

3. My pick is Wednesday May 18 at 9 AM. I had thought about later in the next week, but going with this pick as it's the same date that Tioga opened when Memorial Day was last on May 30. Opening date will mostly depend on how much more falls this Spring (which I don't think will ne much) and how hard NPS works getting it open.

[Southwest Dave]

Yes it's been a strange one, summed up on April 13th with the final post from the Tuolumne winter rangers shwon below.

This is our final post of the 2021-2022 season. It has again been an honor and pleasure to serve in the capacity of the Tuolumne Meadows winter rangers. When we arrived in early December, we were soon buried by the 171 inches of new snow that fell over the next three weeks. Just when we thought we couldn’t shovel anymore, the faucet turned off. We certainly did not anticipate the remaining four consecutive months to be the driest on record. It has been an “upside-down” winter, where the snow and water content peaked in December and slowly diminished thereafter. From a winter recreation perspective, the heavy snows of December were timely (way better than March!) and for this we are grateful. After eleven winters here in Tuolumne we have come to expect the unexpected. Our first winter of 2011–2012 did not see any snowfall until late January, which at least made the ice-skating enthusiasts on Tenaya Lake happy.

The weather this week saw near record-high temperatures in the 60s for three days and ended with some snow and sub-zero temperatures. We took advantage of the heat wave and just enough snow coverage in order to ski up to near Donohue Pass. Despite the record dry past four months, the ski touring and corn cycle were excellent, though limited to appropriate aspect and elevation. As we traversed below what was once the Lyell Glacier it wasn’t difficult to envision the disappearing snow and ice across the globe. The glacier is now considered an stagnant ice patch because it is no longer moving downhill and is rapidly diminishing in size. Not only is there less annual global coverage of snow and ice but it has been melting earlier (Brown, 2000; Clow, 2010; Easterling et al., 2016; Kunkel et al., 2009-b; Liston and Hiemstra, 2011). This spring in Yosemite, the river flows are peaking in early April instead of late May or June. Just remember that if you live in the American West, your water probably came from the sky in the form of a beautiful, delicate snowflake. Each and every dendrite is as beautiful and as important as all life on this fragile little planet including you! So please, take care of one another and our only home, Mother Earth.

Dave.

[Southwest Dave]

The crews have plowed the lenght of the road now they have to open it up, clear all the debris and get the service areas cleared and de-winterized and tasks such as repairing the road and remove any trees that may cause a risk. In other words, still a lot to do !!

I am opting for May 25th at 3pm.

[Southwest Dave]

There is a Hazardous weather warning in place with regards to strong winds in and around Yosemite and not ideal for Plow crews to be working in. We can also expect a few inches of fresh snow from now through until Weds.

Dave

[tseeb]

Ebbetts and Sonora Passes to open today (Thursday 5/12) at 2 PM. This is even though there were much colder than normal temps and some snow earlier in week.

Details in story says Sonora opened May 3, 2018, May 15, 2020 and May 6, 2021 and other records say Tioga opened May 21, 2018, June 15, 2020 and May 27, 2021. These were the last 3 low snow years as both 2017 and 2019 were high snow years. If you throw out 2020 as there were probably pandemic-related delays, using only 2018 and 2021 Tioga opened 19.5 days after Sonora which would put Tioga opening on May 31 or June 1. I would not be surprised to see Tioga open before Memorial Day which means @Southwest_Dave could be closest of current entries.