Competition: Tioga Pass Prognosticator. Spring opening 2018

[Southwest Dave]

This our 25th Tioga Pass competition, (Silver Anniversary) where we try to predict the correct opening and closing dates of this famous mountain route that crosses the Sierra Nevada through Yosemite National Park. As we start to plan our road trips in the west for the season ahead, many will be keeping a close eye on this route and hoping it will open in time for them to travel it. Now you have the chance to win a tank of fuel by correctly predicting the opening date for Spring 2018 ! So far this winter we have not seen much snow along the Tioga pass which points to an early opening, but then again we have seen many late storms in the past that can change all that. So have you got what it takes to become the next TppC (Tioga pass prognosticator Champion) ? It's free to enter and all you have to do is follow the rules below.

Tioga Pass Spring opening 2018 competition.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

The Rules

*** To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date. **Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread
** ** Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry). *And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
*** Once you have selected your date you must select the relevant date range in the Poll above.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga pass.
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Contrasting images of Half Dome taken from the Sentinel Webcam.





Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2017 June 29th,
2016 May 18th (Noon)
2015 May 4th (8 am)
2014 May 2nd (Noon)
2013 May 11th (Noon)
2012 May 7th (Noon)
2011 June 18th (8:45 am)
2010 June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

Our reigning Tioga Pass Prognosticator champ is member is Tantrum who successfully predicted the 2015 Spring opening and our current dcTPP (Darn Close Tioga Pass Prognosticator) is Mark Sedenquist who missed out on last years correct closing date by less than 24 hours.
Here's the official list of the Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date: -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:

Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:

*** tantrum, Spring 2015 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013
Opening Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008 -


***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)

************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Here are some useful links to help out.

Yosemite official opening and closing dates.

A list of dates for other Sierra Nevada passes.

Live views from Yosemite Webcams.

And here is a link to 10 of our previous predictive efforts.

Winter closing 2017.
Spring opening 2017.
Winter closing 2016
Spring opening 2016.
Winter closing 2015.
Spring opening 2015.
Winter closing 2014.
Spring opening 2014.
Winter closing 2013
Spring opening 2013.

And some POG Photos (Proof of gas) from previous winners.

George Cary (glc) Spring opening 2014.


George again. Spring opening 2013.


Jessica Beagles-Roos [CAnative] 2011 winter closing.


CAnative 2011 Spring opening.


Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010.


Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009.


Remember, your prediction must be posted on this thread and you must 'Ping the Poll' at the top to qualify !

Good luck and Happy predicting !

[Mark Sedenquist]

So, I get to throw in the first dart of this Silver Anniversary edition of the annual RTA TPP prognosticator campaign!

May 12th at 9 am!

Happy Prognosticating!

[Southwest Dave]

After last years near record breaking snowfall it's been a pretty quiet year so far in 2018, so it's good to see some snow in the forecast for the week ahead. At this point it doesn't look like it will amount to much more than 6 to 12 inches of new snow, but with only an 8-12 inch recorded snow depth already on the ground, at least it's a bit of a boost for the water table.

Dave.

[Utahtea]

So, I get to throw in the first dart of this Silver Anniversary edition of the annual RTA TPP prognosticator campaign!

May 12th at 9 am!

Happy Prognosticating!

Bummmer....that's our grandson's birthday and I would have guessed that day!

Since it's taken, I'll go for May 25 at 9 am

Utahtea

[DonnaR57]

May 31st at 9 am.



Donna

[Southwest Dave]

It's nice to finally see a covering of the white stuff from todays Yosemite Sentinel Webcam. There is more to come according to the weather forecast which will be good news for those watching the water table.



Dave.

[Southwest Dave]

This week starts out with a few snow flurries and turns heavier as we go into Thursday. There is a chance the Sierra's could see up to 3 or 4 feet of fresh snow in the coming week !

Winter Storm watch in effect.

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hanford CA
538 PM PDT Mon Mar 19 2018

CAZ096-097-201030-
/O.CON.KHNX.WS.A.0005.180321T0600Z-180323T0600Z/
Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon-
Tulare County Mountains-
Including the cities of Camp Nelson, Giant Forest, Lodgepole,
and Johnsondale
538 PM PDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 8000 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 TO 3
FEET LIKELY, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 FEET. The heaviest
snow is likely from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

* WHERE...Sierra Nevada from Yosemite National Park to the Kern
County line.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing and drifting snow and local
whiteout conditions possible. Hikers and campers over the high
Sierra should be prepared for hazardous wintry weather.

Keep safe !

Dave.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Look at the trees -- they are in trouble! This is very alarming.

March 28, 2018 at 1:25 pm PDT
Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

We have been posting photos from this spot for more than a decade -- Could the prolonged drought be the source of the damage to these trees? Very sad to see, no matter what the source of the distress.

[Rick Quinn]

Looks a lot like bark beetle damage. That would be very sad indeed!

Rick

[Southwest Dave]

There may be a little new snow at high elevations, but attention has turned to heavy rain combined with snow melt that may cause flash floods going into the weekend.

Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Hanford CA
915 PM PDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...A storm will bring substantial rain to the foothills and
mountains below 7000 feet along with a threat of flash flooding...

CAZ093-096-051615-
/O.CON.KHNX.FA.A.0001.180407T0600Z-180408T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno County Foothills-
Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon-
Including the cities of Coarsegold, Oakhurst, Squaw Valley,
Auberry, North Fork, Mariposa, Devils Postpile, Florence Lake,
Lake Thomas Edison, Tuolumne Meadows, Bass Lake, Fish Camp,
and Wawona
915 PM PDT Wed Apr 4 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central California, including the following
areas, Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno County Foothills and
Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon.

* From Friday evening through Sunday morning

* Heavy rainfall in addition to snow melt will create excess
runoff and bring a threat of localized flash flooding, mud
slides, rock slides and debris flows, particularly in the
vicinity of the Detwiler fire burn scar. In addition, rainfall
runoff will allow for sharp rises in the Merced, San Joaquin
and possibly Kings River Saturday morning and continue through
out the day. The rise in the rivers could produce localized
flooding near their banks, especially in the Yosemite Valley.

* Some roads may become impassable or become washed out.
Residents should be alert for rising waters on area streams
with the possibility of flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

They have started to mobilize equipment in readiness to begin plowing Glacier Point road although plowing is not expected to begin on Tioga Pass until the middle of the month. There is currently around 27 inches of snow up on the high ground and reports have come in that the snowpack as of April 1st is just 67% of average.

Dave.