Competition time ! The 34th Tioga pass prognosticator. Winter closing.

Welcome to the 34th Tioga pass prognosticator and your chance to win a free tank of petrol for your road trip ride !!

(It's free to enter and all you have to do is correctly predict the date the Tioga Pass will close for the 2022 winter season!!)

This is our 34th attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. We don't care how you come up with a date, you can throw a dart at the calender, gaze at a crystal ball or study weather patterns and previous years results, or what ever else it takes !

If you want a chance to become RTA's new Tppc (Tioga pass prognosticator champion) and win a tank of gas all you have to do is follow the simple rules below.

The competition

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

The rules.

****Please read rules carefully****

To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" and time must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*If you manage to identify the correct closing time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post you must "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

If you are not familiar with Tioga pass just take a look at these contrasting images from the same web camera !!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_05-21_13.jpg

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/photo...8_Yosemite.jpg

Here follows some information from previous years to help guide you.

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:

2021 October 21st (Very early closure)
2020 November 5th
2019.November 19th
2018:November 20th
2017: November 14th
2016: November 16th
2015: November 1st
2014: November 13th
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th

Here is a link to the official Yosemite opening and closing page.

The High Sierra webcam to see whats happening right now !

And a link to our last 10 winter closing contests.

2021 contest.
2020 Cancelled due to pandemic.
2019 contest
2018 contest
2017 contest
2016 contest
2015 contest
2014 contest
2013 contest
2012 contest

Here is a list of previous winners.

Tioga pass champions !

Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2018. Reigning Champ !
......................(tantrum), Spring 2015 Opening (never identified or claimed the prize)
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
..................... (weirj), Winter 2008 (never identified or claimed the prize)

***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)

************** Southwest Dave 2022 Spring opening
************** tseeb. 2020 Spring opening
**************anuj1985. winter 2019
**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Here are some 'Proof of gas' photos of previous winners.

Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018. (and still reigning Champ !)
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...19_Barstow.jpg

George Carey Spring opening 2014 (glc)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg

George again in Spring 2013.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg

CAnative Spring 2011
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg

Brian Shannon. (Exodus) Spring, 2010.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg

Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg

Good luck and happy travels folks !

Dave.

Sheriff Dave,

Looking good to me. I am tossing my first dart: Monday, November 21st at 8 am.

Mark

From Monday we have 3 days of rain and snow showers forecasted and nightime temperatures dropping below 25F. With snow level above 9000 feet it shouldn't cause any disruption, other than early moring ice possibly.

Dave.

Queen Elizabeth visited Yosemite in March 1983.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...s-Yosemite.jpg

The late Queen Elizabeth who is currently laying in state at Westminster and has huge queues of crowds waiting to pay their respects. Many miles of walking and some waiting 14 hours to file past her coffin, but at least it doesn't start near Yosemite as mistakenly reported below !

Quote:

---

Snaking through London, the queue to see Queen Elizabeth II lying in state ran for 4.4 miles on Thursday, stretching from Westminster to Tower Bridge and beyond.

However, those looking to join the back of the line might have been forgiven for thinking it began 5,300 miles away in Fresno, California.

The reason for the confusion was a choice by the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport to use a British app to help mourners find the end of the queue.

The app, called What3words, uses a combination of three words to pinpoint a grid address anywhere in the world. Its map is broken up into 57 trillion three-metre squares, each with a unique identifier made up of three words.

For example, the late Queen’s coffin is lying in the centre of Westminster Hall on a catafalque. The middle of Westminster Hall, according to What3words, is addressed as hurls.elbows.jumped.

But problems have arisen further down the queue. The first location posted by DCMS officials on their YouTube livestream of the line was supposed to be same.valve.grit, a spot next to Blackfriars Bridge.

Unfortunately, the address they actually posted as same.valve.grid, more than 5,300 miles away near Yosemite in California.

The error is easily missed. Civil servants appear to have typed “grid” instead of “grit”, potentially after mishearing the word.

---

RIP

Dave.

Wow, that would be an extraordinarily long queue! Pretty cool that you found this article and posted it here.

Mark

Reservations to be able to enter Yosemite end tonight and it looks like a beautiful week ahead to visit with freedom. In the valley the temperatures look to remain in the high 70F range and even above 9000ft you can expect mid 60's ! Boy I wish I was there !!

Dave.

October 23rd at 3pm. Because weather is sneaky!

The weather has been pretty settled in Yosemite for the time of year but it looks as though a change may blow in on Tuesday with the possibility of 6inches of snow followed by the same on Wednesday at higher elevations along Tioga pass. Wind gusts could reach 40mph so it could be enough to close the pass, at least for a short while. It's certainly the time of year the weather becomes unsettled and the forecasts are showing that. With that in mind I am going to get my prediction in. November 18th at 8am.

Dave.

Nov. 22nd, 8 am.

Tioga pass has been temporarily closed due to the forecast of snow, I understand they closed it on October 31st and remains closed. Although this is stated as a temporary closure there is a Winter storm watch in place from Sunday through to Wednesday with potential to bring heavy snow and gusty winds up to 50mph. At 8000ft there is a possibility of 2-3feet snow accumulation and up to 4ft in isolated spots above this. If this pans out it would not surprise me if it remains closed for the season and we witness another October closure !

Dave.

Here's the first snow to settle captured by Yosemite's High Sierra webcam.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...er-03-2022.jpg

And a warning of whats to come from the National weather service !!

Quote:

---

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1228 PM PDT Thu Nov 3 2022

CAZ323-326-040400-
/O.NEW.KHNX.WS.A.0004.221106T2000Z-221109T1800Z/
Yosemite NP outside of the valley-Upper San Joaquin River-
Including the cities of Tuolumne Meadows, Wawona,
Devils Postpile, Florence Lake, and Lake Thomas Edison
1228 PM PDT Thu Nov 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 3
feet. Isolated amounts of 4 feet of snow above 8000 feet.
Westerly winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Yosemite NP outside of the valley and Upper San
Joaquin River.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hikers and campers could face life
threatening conditions due to heavy snow, strong wind, and
freezing cold temperatures.

---

If you are travelling to Yosemite be sure to keep updated on current conditions, snowchains could be required and other road closures are possible.

Dave.

Heavy storms on the way -- I bet the road is closed for good by tomorrow night!

Mark

Snow is showing on most of the roads in the Sierras. And it looks pretty snowy at the Yosemite Valley.

check out the snow in the Web cam of Yosemite Falls!

Mark

All I could see for the last couple of days from the High Sierra webcam was a whited out screen. Now it's showing a significant amount of new snow has fallen.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...ovember-22.jpg

Looks to me like it's going to be a permanent closure, it's just a case of when they call it !

Dave

I think you are right. Caltrans says 120 (Tioga), 108 (Sonora) and 89 (Monitor) are closed due to "winter closure". 4 (Ebbetts) has been "closed to traffic" since 11/1.

Although Yosemite 'Alerts' page are still declaring it as a Temporary closure the official 'Opening and closing' pages have confirmed it as closed for the season on October 31st. Unfortunately no one got close this year, Mass Tim correctly predicting an early closure but still 8 days out ! Since the start of the Pandemic there seems to be no effort to keep the road open later into the season as they once did so perhaps this is the new 'normal'. So there we have it, at least until we start the next contest to predict when it may open for the 2023 road trip season.

For anyone planning to visit Yosemite in the summer of 2023 you may be pleased to learn that reservations will not be required !

Dave.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Southwest Dave

For anyone planning to visit Yosemite in the summer of 2023 you may be pleased to learn that reservations will not be required !

---

I'll say, I might be in the minority, but I generally thought the reservation systems were a net positive. I haven't visited Yosemite since they started using them, but I did visit Rocky Mountain NP with the timed entry restrictions and really enjoyed having a more limited number of people in the parks.

Noting the last time I was at Yosemite about 5 years ago, the traffic jams were pretty insane, and as I was leaving, the line of cars waiting to get into the park was close to 2 miles long, Yosemite feels like a place that would have benefited from keeping the timed entry in place long term.

Quote:

---

I'll say, I might be in the minority, but I generally thought the reservation systems were a net positive.

---

I tend to agree even though a PITA for those touring without wanting to be tied down to dates. As we travel off season we have not experienced the congestion but it's not hard to imagine it impacting on the enjoyment and management of the park. The reason Yosemite held onto the reservation system for 2022 was because of key areas being closed for repairs, creating less space to explore in. They are looking for new ways to combat the growing visitor numbers and the effect it has on visitor experience and the habitat.

From Yosemite Facebook page.

Quote:

---

Yosemite has been grappling with congestion—even gridlock—for decades. We want to build from the lessons learned from the last three summers of managed access. Look for an announcement in December, when we'll start seeking your help to design an approach that provides a great visitor experience while protecting Yosemite's natural and cultural resources.

---

A huge responsibility and difficult balancing act in protecting these natural wonders while trying to let as many people enjoy them as possible.

Dave

And I agree too.

The days are long past where people can expect to enter a national park (or any concert venue) without a ticket.

Mark

Well it's certainly looking a lot like winter for the rest of the week !! It's possible that the high points along Tioga pass could see 5 foot of snow accumulation laying on the ground by Sunday evening ! With heavy snow and winds gusting up to 50mph along crests and through canyons it sounds pretty treacherous out !

It's just the beginning of this batch of winter weather and already the 'Hump' is starting to show in the bottom right of this picture from the High Sierra webcam.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...inel-Dec-1.jpg

Dave.

It looks as though plenty of snow will sweep through the Sierra's from now into the New year and the hump is making a comeback !

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...nel-27-Dec.jpg

Dave.

Nice to see the return of the hump!

I bet Spring opening will be later this year than in other recent years... Time will tell.

Mark

Yeah the hump is back big time for the New year !!

What a great image from the Sentinel webcam.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...l-1st-2023.jpg

Happy New Year folks !!

Dave.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Southwest Dave

Yeah the hump is back big time for the New year !!

What a great image from the Sentinel webcam.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...l-1st-2023.jpg

Happy New Year folks !!

Dave.

---

Such a beautiful sight! Love the light glistening on the trees.

More snow is forecast for later today.

Happy New Years to you too!

Mark

Love the cloud formation over the mountains, it reminds me of an alien spacecraft !

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...inel-4-jan.jpg

And yes there is a lot of snow forecast on the highground over the next few days and more to follow after a brief window of clear conditions. (There is also a serious risk of flooding to the west of the Sierra's due to rainfall.)

From the National weather service.

Quote:

---

TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 2
to 4 feet above 7000 feet. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING

---

Dave

The hump continues to grow and with the possibility of another 4 to 8 feet of fresh snow to come between Saturday and Tuesday it could get a lot bigger yet ! This will hopefully be great news for the water table and help Mono lake to return to safe levels!!

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...an-06-2023.jpg

Dave.

Yep, that is looking gorgeous!

Mark

Complete white out and the hump continues to 'Thrive'.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...9th-Jan-23.jpg

I love this image from the Yosemite Rangers taken in the Tuolumne Meadows area looking along Lembert Dome on 29th December. (Avalanche activity was observed on Tioga pass)

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...ne-meadows.jpg

Plus, at the National weather centre they expect there to be up to another 6 feet of fresh snow accumulation over the next few days. (More in localised spots)

Dave.

Wow, that is a great photo.

Thanks for posting.

Mark

Today, the snowstorm continues

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog.../0114_2023.jpg
January 14th at 9 am PsT

This could the tallest I've ever seen the HUMP!

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...15sentinel.jpg
Taken January 15th at 8:30 am PST

The clouds are lifting a bit down in the Yosemite Valley. Still looks a tad chilly this morning:
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog....ahwahnee2.jpg

I've never seen it that high and with a further weather warning in effect I wonder if it will completely cover the view ?

Quote:

---

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 feet.
Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Sierra Nevada at elevations mainly above 5,000 feet from
Yosemite to Tulare County. Snow levels will lower Monday night
to around 3,500 feet before snow ends.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

---

Love that image in Yosemite valley !!

Dave

Blue skies over Yosemite this morning...

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...0.sentinel.jpg
Taken at about 8:30 am PST

I can't really tell, but I think it might be snowing again today?

The snow has melted off the branches of the tree we can see in the upper left frame. Which is the only reference we have for whether or not the HUMP is still growing...

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...9.sentinel.jpg
(Yosemite Conservancy Webcam at Sentinel Peak -- January 19th at 8:44 am PST)

What do you think? Will it grow again today?

Mark

The sky has cleared and there is no snow forecast over the next few days. It's going to be very cold though so although it's unlikely to grow, it's not likely to go anywhere either !

Dave.

The earliest to hit a century in their 12 winters !

Quote:

---

January 11, 2023 Posted by: Laura and Rob Pilewski
It was another wet week in the Golden State. Here at 8,600 feet in the central Sierra Nevada the precipitation fell as snow, and we now have over 100 inches HS (Height of Snow) on the ground. This is the earliest we have hit the century mark in our twelve winters in Tuolumne Meadows. With new snow that is this deep, it is going to take a minimum of a day or two of settlement to make traveling any distances a reasonable or safe affair.

---

And what about this image, captured on Jan 16th along the Tioga road. (Wow !!)

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...Tioga-road.jpg

Dave

And the web cam at Sentinel Peak is offline today -- too bad, other web cams show it is a beautiful day in Yosemite.

We heard from a friend that Kirkwood, CA has received 352 inches of snow thus far this year.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...kwood_snow.jpg
(see the cabin, between the trees?)

Ah, they got it working!
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...7.sentinel.jpg
January 20th at 4:20 pm PST.

I think the Hump has begun to shrink!!

A beautiful day in Yosemite.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...0.sentinel.jpg
January 21, 2023 at 09:20 am PST.
(Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy)

It looks as though 'Big Foot' may have visited the Hump and had a run around !

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...p-22nd-Jan.jpg

Very strange.

Dave

Maybe Big Foot

I am not sure what else is causing the Hump to get smaller. I think it might be more due to consolidation (due to weight) than melting alone.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...4.sentinel.jpg
January 22nd at 1:54 pm PST)