Tioga Pass Prognosticator #18

[Mark Sedenquist]

Advent of the Winter RoadTrip Season in the West

This is our eighteenth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. (I know it just opened for the 2014 summer travel season, and the road isn't even dry from the snow melt, but time marches on...)

The current reigning Chief Prognosticator, George Carey known on the Great American RoadTrip Forum as glc is one of the most active members of this forum. He is actually a Two-Peat TPP having correctly predicted the opening dates for both Spring, 2013 and Spring, 2014. There is one other member who shares the credit for achieving a two-peat of the TPP. Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative) on the forum) correctly identified the opening in Spring, 2011 and the closing during the Winter of 2011. Both George and Jessica have also notched dcTPP notches in their Tioga Pass Prognosticator belts...

This year, the western drought continues to affect weather patterns in the Yosemite National Park area. There is some possibility that this year will see El Nino weather patterns which should, in theory, bring earlier snow and rain to the Sierra Nevadas and close the pass earlier -- but on-going climate change will certainly affect whatever storms come this way. There have only been four other TPPs awarded since this featured event began in Spring, 2006.

There was no official winner of the Chief Prognosticator (TPP) for the 2013 Winter Closing, but Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), was awarded the Winter dcTPP (darn-close prognosticator).

Rainfall & snow predictions will probably be trickier than normal this year. Do you have what it takes to be the new Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator?

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th
2001: November 11th

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD*
Please read entry rules carefully
To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing...
Spring 2012 Opening
Fall 2012 Closing
Spring 2013 Opening!
Winter, 2013 Closing
Spring, 2014 Opening.

Past honorees with their POG photos: (Proof of Gas...)


GEORGE CAREY is the TPP for 2014 -- shown with his road trip ride on June 15, 2014.


2013 TPP is George Carey (glc) shown posing above with this RoadTrip Ride at the local Conoco station.


JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): Winter Closing 2011 Tioga Pass Prognosticator


JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): 2011 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator


BRIAN SHANNON, (Exodus): 2010 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator


PHIL BOARDMAN, (PhilB): 2009 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

And here you can monitor current conditions from 4 Web cams in Yosemite NP:
Yosemite Falls
El Capitan
Half Dome
High Sierra

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

By the way, click here to see what Half Dome looks like when snow is falling....

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

[Mark Sedenquist]

I am predicting a nice, wet fall.... (crossing my toes as I write this). So putting in the first dart for Monday, December 1st at Noon.

Mark

[Mark Sedenquist]

Did you know it snowed last night at Yosemite?

Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
Captured at ~ 7:45 am PDT

[Southwest Dave]

Yes this weather was forecast as I forewarned on the TPP 17 thread a couple of days ago. It's about until Thursday and although it might not be enough to cause a closure, it's certainly worth checking for updates over the next few days if you have travel plans over the Pass.

Dave.

[Southwest Dave]

The official Yosemite status page has the road listed as 'Call' before travelling, but according to reports there is a temporary closure in force for Tioga pass and Glacier point.

Dave.

Gorgeous day -- nonetheless on the 22nd...

Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
Captured at ~ 11:30 am PDT

Yosemite Falls on May 22nd!

Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
Captured at ~ 11:35 am PDT

Gorgeous light on the afternoon of Saturday, May 24th:

Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
Captured at ~ 5:45 pm PDT

[Mark Sedenquist]

Yosemite Falls on June 11th at about 6:30 PM PDT. Not quite as strong as a month ago!

Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

Actually if you want to see something amazing.... check out these photos from Iguazú Falls in Brazil!

[Mark Sedenquist]

A nice view of the Yosemite high country -- not too much smoke at the moment:

Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

And this is what Yosemite Falls looks like at the end of summer....

Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

[Mark Sedenquist]

This is not the view we want to see. Looks like four or more separate spot fires burning to the SW of Half Dome:

September 7th at about 2:00 pm PDT
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

Yes, this was dubbed the Meadow Fire.

Here is video about the 80 hikers on Half Dome that were evacuated from the top by helicopter.

Pretty amazing photo captured by Michael Frye at about 9pm on Sunday.

More photos on the MeadowFire hashtag

[RahRah]

Throwing my hat in for Tuesday, October 21 at 10:30 AM. (edited to correct date)

[Southwest Dave]

It's getting closer to 'that time', the year seems to have flown by ! That would be an early closure RahRah, the second earliest since 1980 in fact, the earliest being on October 17th in 2004.

The temperatures in the valley are expected to be in the mid 90's for the first half of this week !

Dave.