Competition time. The 32nd Tioga pass prognosticator. Winter closing 2021.

Welcome to the 32nd Tioga pass prognosticator and your chance to win a free tank of petrol for your road trip ride !!

***All you have to do is correctly predict the date the Tioga Pass will close for the 2021 winter season!!***

It's been an uncertain time for travel due to the pandemic, but one thing for sure is that Mother nature will take charge and close the Tioga pass to vehicles sometime during the winter months, but when ?? The Tioga Pass is one of the most scenic drives in the American west and is part of California State Highway 120 (CA-120), which crosses the Sierra Nevada in Yosemite National Park, but due to elevation and winter snow accumulation it will become impossible to drive across for long periods during winter. If you predict the correct date you could win a free tank of gas for your road trip ride, if you get within an hour of the official closing time you will also receive a bonus prize !! It doesn't matter how you arrive at your prediction, you can use a crystal ball, study data or just take a wild guess, all you have to do is follow the rules as set out below.

So have you got what it takes to become the newly crowned TPPC ?? (Tioga pass prognosticator champ)

The Competition

***Please read the entry rules carefully***

To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" and time must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*If you manage to identify the correct closing time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post you must "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

If you are not familiar with Tioga pass just take a look at these contrasting images from the same web camera !!

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_05-21_13.jpg

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/photo...8_Yosemite.jpg

Here are some links that may help you to gather information on previous years and current conditions.

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:

2020 competition was suspended due to the pandemic.
2019.November 19th
2018:November 20th
2017: November 14th
2016: November 16th
2015: November 1st
2014: November 13th
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th

Here is a link to the official Yosemite Opening and closing dates page.

Yosemite webcam for a view of whats happening right now !.

And here is a link to the previous 10 Tioga pass closing competitions.

2019 Winter closing.
2018 winter closing.
2017 winter closing.
2016 winter closing.
2015 winter closing.
2014 winter closing.
2013 winter closing.
2012 winter closing.
2011 winter closing.
2010 winter closing.

Here is a list of previous winners and dcTPP's. (darn close Tioga Pass Prognosticators.)

Tioga pass champions.

Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2018. Reigning Champ !
......................(tantrum), Spring 2015 Opening (never identified or claimed the prize)
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
..................... (weirj), Winter 2008 (never identified or claimed the prize)

***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)

************** tseeb. 2020 Spring opening
**************anuj1985. winter 2019
**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

And here are some winning contestants filling their tanks with their prize money !

Mark Sedenquist Winter Closing, 2018 ( must be "insider trading" and time for someone to take his crown !!)
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...19_Barstow.jpg

Double winner George Carey (glc) in Spring opening 2014 and 2013 !!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg

(Who says lightning doesn't strike twice !!)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg

Jessica Beagles-Roos [CAnative] 2011 winter closing.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...os-Kingman.jpg

Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative) 2011 Spring opening. (Another double winner !!)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg

Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg

Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg

Remember, your prediction must be posted on this thread to include time and date and you must 'Ping the Poll' at the top to qualify !

Good luck !!

Dave.

Nov. 22nd. 9 am.



Donna

Predicting the closing date is tougher than the opening and has only one entry so far.

Tioga will temporarily close tomorrow and not sure if it will re-open or temporarily close again next Mon/Tues when more precipitation and lows in the mid-teens are predicted for South Lake Tahoe.

https://snowbrains.com/tioga-road-close-snowstorm/

My WAG is November 18 at 5 PM although it would be less work for NPS if they just left Tioga closed and nobody here wins. From https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/conditions.htm
"Tioga Road (Hwy 120 through the park) and Glacier Point Road are temporarily closed
Tioga Road (the continuation of Highway 120 through the park) and Glacier Point Road are temporarily closed due to an incoming storm. Call 209/372-0200 (then 1, 1) for current status."

Ski forums had pictures of snow at Mammoth Mountain, which is not far from Tioga and at Mt Rose ski area, where almost 9,000' pass between Reno and Tahoe had chain control.

Yeah, my brother was attempting to drive over the pass today. No idea if he made it before the closure.

I think it will reopen and my WAG is November 30th at 8:30 am.

Happy Prognosticating All!

Mark

Maybe the winner(s) of this Prognosticator Puzzle will be able to join us at the 26th Anniversary Party of RTA on March 5th!

I hope so.

Mark

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Yeah, my brother was attempting to drive over the pass today. No idea if he made it before the closure.

Maybe the winner(s) of this Prognosticator Puzzle will be able to join us at the 26th Anniversary Party of RTA on March 5th!

I hope so.

Mark

---

Mark, It will be interesting to hear if your brother got through (or where he went instead) as Tioga was scheduled to "temporarily close on Thursday, October 7, at 5 pm" according to snowbrains link I posted earlier. Tioga and Glacier Point are both still closed.

I will keep the Anniversary Party in mind. Current plans have me in Las Vegas late on the following day, but I may be able to move it up.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Yeah, my brother was attempting to drive over the pass today. No idea if he made it before the closure.

---

All passes WERE closed yesterday, he was driving back to the bay area from Mammoth and so went west via Minden for an eleven hour cruise. I will post photos here when I get them from him.

The Tioga pass is 'Amber' at the moment, currently open with a caution warning of icy conditions. Anyone planning to travel are advised to use the Yosemite website for the latest information as it can change at a moments notice !

Dave.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

All passes WERE closed yesterday, he was driving back to the bay area from Mammoth and so went west via Minden for an eleven hour cruise. I will post photos here when I get them from him.

---

Did your brother run into traffic or weather or make a lot of stops? Google Maps says Mammoth to San Jose via Minden is 6 hrs 15 min, less than an hour longer than going through Yosemite (5 hrs 19 min) even though it is 75 miles further. To Santa Rosa, it is almost the same time via Minden or Tioga. Time difference between routes to other Bay Area locations are somewhere in between.

I was a little worried about what I was getting into in April when driving the camper from Mammoth to South Tahoe I had snow on Deadman Summit, which is only about 10 miles N of Mammoth and barely over 8K elevation. I was glad to hear from friend who was ahead of me in his Tesla that there was no snow on nearly 9k Conway Summit. We got to cabin at same time as he charged behind Hard Rock Casino.

Tioga pass is to close "Temporarily" again on Sunday at 4pm due to an incoming storm. Looking at the weather forecast it doesn't seem to amount to much at all but could be the risk of ice.

I'm going to go with November 11th at 4pm.

Dave.

Tioga could be closed for the season as over 3' of snow is predicted expected on Monday at Mammoth Mountain which is a little South and similar elevation (Main Lodge 9,000', top 11,053'). That would make 10/17 the closing day for Tioga for 2021.

Mammoth has moved up their planned opening day from 11/13 to 10/29.
See https://opensnow.com/location/mammothmountain and https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe for detailed predictions.

Yeah that would be really early !! To put that in perspective, it closed on Oct 16th 1949 and since then only in 2004 could it match Oct 17th. It looks as though it's likely to be around 12 inches of new snow in certain areas of the pass but unless it gets some assistance from the plow crews(?) it could be enough to close it.

Dave

The Tioga pass is still temporarily closed to traffic at this moment in time but the weather looks wonderful in Yosemite right now, even if a tad chilly ! The Yosemite Facebook page says that sensors suggest there was a few feet of snow at higher elevations.

The scene from the High Sierra webcam right now !
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...ct-27-2021.jpg

Will it warm enough to allow a thaw to get it re-opened this season? Time will tell.

Dave.

From the National weather service.

Quote:

---

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hanford CA
454 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

CAZ323-326>328-092100-
/O.CON.KHNX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-211110T0000Z/
Yosemite NP outside of the valley-Upper San Joaquin River-
Kaiser to Rodgers Ridge-Kings Canyon NP-
454 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON ABOVE 7000 FEET...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected above 7000 feet. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts up to 18
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Kings Canyon NP, Yosemite NP outside of the valley,
Kaiser to Rodgers Ridge and Upper San Joaquin River Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

---

I wonder if this is enough to make them call it for the season ?

Dave.

Certainly looking likely

Mark

With night time temps hovering above freezing (36f) and daytime temps possibly touching 60f in the next few days at 8500 feet, just maybe we aren't done yet !

Dave.

Improved conditions has made it possible to get Glacier point road open again and with a few settled days ahead perhaps we could see the Tioga pass open again.

Dave.

With the possibility of it re-opening this season I am going to throw a second dart (as I no longer have a valid entry) and say that the pass will close permanently on December 2nd at 5pm.

Dave.

Mine might still be valid, but I am throwing a second dart too.

December 3rd at 8 am.

Mark

I don't think Tioga, Sonora or Ebbetts Passes will be re-opening before the beginning of Winter. If there is no precipitation between now and then, which us drought-suffering Californians hope is not the case, a late Dec. or early Jan. re-opening is possible, but not very likely.

I drove from South Lake Tahoe to Mammoth early on Wed. AM as 9-11" of snow fell at Mammoth on Mon. into Tues and I wanted to ski it. Monitor Pass, which is over 8300' and East of the Sierra Crest was closed on my way South, but had re-opened by my return on Thurs. PM. I did not take it, even though it saves a few miles getting to nearly 8600' Carson Pass that I used to return to the Bay Area as I wanted to take advantage of less expensive gas in Gardnerville, NV and last fast food until Jackson. Picture is sunrise over Gardnerville on Wed. AM.
Attachment 5056
Due to record Northern CA rainfall Oct 24-25 when one location near Sacramento received over 80% of last rainfall year's rain in 24 hrs and a few received more than 50%, Firefall at Yosemite made a rare late Oct. appearance. See https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/y...rnd/index.html for details and some great photos. Following is from National Weather Service.
Attachment 5057

I thought it possible that it would open a few days after they re-opened Glacier point road as the forecast was promising. However that hasn't happened so far and I have also learnt that it isn't just snow that's the problem, there are fallen trees blocking the road and I'm not sure that they will put crews to work to clear them this late in the season !

Dave.

Surprisingly to me, 8734' and very narrow Ebbetts Pass and 9624' Sonora Pass both re-opened on Monday 11/15. Sonora Pass is very steep at the top on both sides so it has a lot less miles above 8K than Tioga. But snow level is current closer to or even above 9K so there is some hope for Tioga re-opening although I think Parks Service likes having less work with it closed.

In related news https://www.sfgate.com/california-pa...e-16626629.php "Tuolumne Meadows, Bridalveil Creek and Crane Flat will be closed as they undergo extensive renovations. Tuolumne Meadows will see the longest closure, as the National Park Service says that it will be shuttered until 2024, or even 2025, for rehabilitation."

Ebbetts Pass is probably my favorite Sierra crossing. It is surprising that they reopened it! Such a beautiful road.

Mark

10" of snow is predicted at Mammoth by Friday this week and more is predicted for next week which probably means Tioga will stayed closed.

I drove 9624' elevation Sonora Pass on Wed 12/1 after skiing two days at Mammoth. While Mammoth had opened a few more lifts on man-made snow, natural snow was very limited below 9000'. My Honda SUV turned 276K miles (444 km) going down the W side of pass. I made it from Gardnerville, NV to Mammoth and home to San Jose on tank of gas. First is just W of Pass.
Attachment 5058
Next is odometer showing 276K. I was not looking for it, but caught it just before it turned another mile.
Attachment 5059
I think the marks on the road were from sweeper they used on it. Sorry for the hat reflection in windshield.
Attachment 5060


I wanted to get to So. Tahoe Mon 11/29 with an hour of daylight to checkout family cabin and rake some pine needles that are always falling, but things my 91 year-old Mother needed help with before I left piled up so I didn’t leave her house until 1:30. It was almost dark when I stopped at Silver Lake on CA-88. (I took that route to avoid Sacramento traffic and it is shorter.) Continuing toward Carson Pass, I could barely see some of the burnt trees from Caldor Fire before and after Kirkwood.

Yeah, it feels like we have just been waiting for the announcement for ages and was a case of 'when' not 'if'. Maybe this incoming storm will give them a nudge and they will call it for the season.

Thanks for the photos and update. (Wish I was there !)

Dave.

My brother, Dan Sedenquist, drove CA-Hwy 4 over Ebetts Pass on Friday. Still astonishing to me that it would ever be open on the 3rd of December. He reported very icy conditions on the eastern side and skim ice on all of the lakes near the pass.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...lake_12-03.jpg

And another one:
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...e_12-03_02.jpg

And since we all love roadtrip rides -- this is Dan's beast:
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog..._RoadBeast.jpg

Dan just sent this one:
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...EbbetsPass.jpg
And writes:

Here is a shot of the ice pouring out of the rocks making a nasty sheet onto the road. Glad I didn't have to drive on it. This was near the summit.

Thinking these next two storms will simply close that pass for the winter.
--Dan Sedenquist

Mark

Very cool and I'm not talking about the weather ! Love Dan's photo's and his road trip ride!

Dave.

CA-108 (Sonora), 4 (Ebbetts) & 89 (Monitor) closed today and the first two may stay closed into April or May. I also like Dan's photos and wonder how he is posting them larger than I can or did. (I will write to you and explain how that works -- Mark)

It has been confirmed that Tioga pass and Glacier point are closed for the season after significant snow fall. It looks as though the official closing date will be October 17 2021 which was the date it was temporarily closed and last open to traffic. This is an unusually early closure.

Dave.

And this weekend's storm is going to be a doozy. Here was the forecast about an hour ago:

Snow totals of 3 to 5 feet are likely for the Sierra Nevada, with isolated areas receiving up to 8 feet. Some areas could see snowfall rates of more than 2 inches an hour.

October 17th -- Really? That happened at least once before -- in 2004.

I guess I get to retain my title another year, eh?

Mark

Quote:

---

October 17th -- Really? That happened at least once before -- in 2004.

---

It closed on Oct 16th 1949 and since then only in 2004 could it have matched Oct 17th. However, for reasons unknown the Yosemite official opening and closing page has declared the Tioga pass to have closed on October 21st 2021. I have enquired about this and will be interested to see what they say, but for now the official closing date is October 21st.

Quote:

---

I guess I get to retain my title another year, eh?

---

The throne is still yours, for now !!

Dave.

Dave,

Yes, I saw that you wrote to the NPS on their FB page. It will be interesting to see why they changed that date.

Mark

There was no response from the Yosemite team and the closure date remains October 21st for this season.

The weather front that brought about 'calling it' for the season, and closing both Tioga pass and Glacier point road permanantly for the winter, was captured by the High Sierra webcam on December 9th.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...h-Yosemite.jpg

This was the scene in Yosemite valley 6 days later captured by the Yosemite team.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...h-December.jpg

Significant snow is expected to fall in the coming week which can only be good news for the water table.

Dave.

Did I win closest even though I was a month off?

Sorry but that's not close enough to qualify for 'Darn' close tseeb but at least you can take something from the fact of being the closest ! ;-)

Dave.