Competition. The 28th Tioga pass prognosticator. Winter closing 2019.

Welcome to the 28th Tioga Pass Prognosticator and your chance to win a free tank of gas for your road trip ride !

***All you have to do is correctly predict the date the Tioga Pass will close for the 2019 winter season!!***

The Tioga Pass is one of the most scenic drives in the American west and is part of California State Highway 120, (CA-120), which crosses the Sierra Nevada in Yosemite National Park. Sometime during Fall and early winter the snow will arrive, eventually closing the Pass until the following Spring. Have you got what it takes to predict the closing date ? If you predict the correct date you could win a free tank of gas for your road trip ride, if you get within an hour of the official opening time you will also receive a bonus prize !! It doesn't matter how you arrive at your prediction, you can use a crystal ball, study data or just take a wild guess, all you have to do is follow the rules set out below.

Just look at these contrasting images of Yosemites high country from the same Webcam!!

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_05-21_13.jpg

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/photo...8_Yosemite.jpg

So have you got what it takes to become the newly crowned TPPC
(Tioga Pass Prognosticator Champion)??

The Competition.

***Please read the entry rules carefully***

To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" and time must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct closing time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post you must "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...
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Here is some further info and links that may help you in your quest !

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2018:November 20th
2017: November 14th
2016: November 16th
2015: November 1st
2014: November 13th
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th

Here is a link to previous opening and closing dates for Tioga Pass.

See whats happening right now with Yosemite webcams.

And links to 10 previous RTA Tioga pass winter closure contests.

2018 winter closing.
2017 winter closing.
2016 winter closing.
2015 winter closing.
2014 winter closing.
2013 winter closing.
2012 winter closing.
2011 winter closing.
2010 winter closing.
2009 winter closing.

Here is a list of previous winners and dcTPP's. (darn close Tioga Pass Prognosticators.)

Tioga Pass Prognosticator Champs!

Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2018. Reigning Champ !
......................(tantrum), Spring 2015 Opening (never identified or claimed the prize)
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
..................... (weirj), Winter 2008 (never identified or claimed the prize)

***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)

**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Here are some POG photo's of previous winners. (Proof of gas)

Mark Sedenquist Winter Closing, 2018 ( must be "insider trading")
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...19_Barstow.jpg

George Cary (glc) Spring opening 2014.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg

George again. Spring opening 2013.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg

Jessica Beagles-Roos [CAnative] 2011 winter closing.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...os-Kingman.jpg

CAnative 2011 Spring opening.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg

Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg

Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg

Remember, your prediction must be posted on this thread to include time and date and you must 'Ping the Poll' at the top to qualify !

So what are you waiting for ?? Have the opportunity to win a tank of gas for your road trip ride, for free !!

Good luck prognosticators !!

I am a little late getting this up and running for this contest as 'real life' got busy, but here we are so good luck everyone !

I'm going to get my date in and it's going to be November 23rd at 8am.

Dave.

November 22, 8 am.

November 20, 8 am.

- - - Updated - - -

How do I ping the poll?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anuj1985

November 20, 8 am.

- - - Updated - - -

How do I ping the poll?

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You should see a poll at the top of the thread. Select the date range that relates to your choice and click on it.

I think the snow is going to start flying early this year. Parts of Wyoming and Colorado already have snow on the ground.

So, Friday, November 15th at 8:30 am PST

Mark

I was going to pick 11/13, but don't want to be so close to Mark so my pick is 11/12 at 9 AM.

I saw some snow mixed in the precipitation at about 6,000' in Truckee on Mon 9/14 and Mammoth had some snow yesterday or today. Picture is from about same altitude as Tioga Pass.
Attachment 4931

That looks to be a significant amount of snowfall, especially so early in the Fall so it will be interest ing to see how this season unfolds.

Dave.

Squaw Valley said they had 2" of snow at 8200' on Mon 9/14. We had a 1 hr 20 minute of delays about 10 miles W of Donner Summit (well below where any snow fell) in early PM. It sounded like two semis went off the Interstate (more than 10 miles apart). Highway seem like it was closed when they were pulling them back onto road. We were totally stopped twice for at least 20 minutes. My picture of Donner Summit about 1:45 PM
Attachment 4932
Very cold temps and snow now predicted for next Sat/Sun at Mammoth Lakes.

It is really outrageous to have so much winter weather already.

Thanks for the updates!

Mark

That was not the case down here in SoCal. At home, the A/C ran in the late afternoons most of last week, giving us a break on Thursday and Friday.

We were up at Disneyland again yesterday. It was in the low 90s there, but it cooled off quickly in the evening due to a nice breeze. We sat comfortably for the parade and fireworks without a jacket or long pants. Fall is on its way, we thought!

This morning we got home at 11 am and it was already closing in on 90 again. The AC will probably be back on in a couple of hours.


Donna

Well that wintery weather has brought about a temporary closure of Tioga pass and Glacier point road this weekend.

From Yosemite website.

Quote:

---

Tioga Rd (Hwy 120 through the park) and Glacier Point Road will be temporarily closed this weekend
Tioga Road will temporarily close on Saturday, September 28, at 4 pm. Glacier Point Road will temporarily close on Friday, September 27, at 8 pm due to snow. Both roads will open on Monday, conditions permitting. Call 209/372-0200 (then 1, 1) for updates.

---

On a side note the Northern Rockies are taking a hit from the weather with a major winter storm bringing heavy snow and high winds !

Dave.

Yosemite is experiencing a nice settled period of weather with blue skys and pleasant daytime temperatures. So not much to report accept for the High Sierra webcam is up and running having been out of commission for some while.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...2nd-Oct-19.jpg

Dave. (Wishing I was there)

11/29/19- 9am

Not sure if Fall/Winter closing rules are the same as Spring/Summer opening rules when it seemed like people were able to put in a new entry as long as it was done 15 days or more in advance.

Even though I still have a week until my earlier guess of 11/12 it does not look like Tioga will be closing until after mid-Nov. So if allowable, I'm putting in a new guess that is two weeks later than my earlier one and more than 3 weeks from today of 11/26 at 8:30 AM.

Hi tseeb. Yes the rules are basically the same and your prediction is fine.

Dave.

Everything remains calm in Yosemite right now and the weather looks amazing given the time of year ! However we know how quickly that can change as a winter blast can come in quickly. The Yosemite conservancy have updated their site, so I have done the same with the link to the webcam pages at the start of this thread so it's all working correctly again.

Take a look at whats happening right now right here.

Dave.

Well, that's a real bummer.

So, we can't use the screen grabs any longer, eh?

As a result, I am thinking about cancelling my membership account. I think it's kind of dumb on their part.

Mrak

Just use the Windows Snipping Tool.

I tried my usual tools -- they don't work -- there are source code blocks in there now.

Mark

I drove W over Tioga Pass on Thurs, Nov 14. I think my original guess of Nov. 13 was based on that would be the day I'd need Tioga to be open to get to Mammoth, which opened the previous Saturday on man-made snow, and it would close.

I drove to Mammoth via South Lake Tahoe, stopping at Sly Park Reservoir for a short mountain bike ride that started just before sunset and finished in the dark, but before the full moon rose. Some of the advantages of going via Tahoe is that it breaks up the trip (I've never tried leaving San Jose early enough to ski Mammoth on arrival day) and fuel in Minden/Gardnerville area is less than in CA (although not as much less as it used to be except for diesel). Also my family has a cabin in So. Tahoe that had not been used since I was there at the end of Sept.

I'll let pictures (and captions) tell the rest of the story.
Early morning drives from Tahoe to Mammoth often have great sunrises. This is going down Kingsbury Grade
Attachment 4934
Entrance to Yosemite. Snow on peaks in background is probably from last winter
Attachment 4935
The entrance station may have closed on date of my original guess. Do I win anything
Attachment 4936
Next two pictures from Olmstead Point
Attachment 4937Attachment 4938

A couple of more from Olmstead Point. First is the view to E featuring Tenaya Lake and Mt Conness. Second is Clouds Rest, the highest point visible from Yosemite Valley, and a long hike that ends in a knifes-edge ridge with a views including looking down on Half Dome. Also note the frozen waterfall? at left.
Attachment 4939Attachment 4940
I stopped just before Crane Flat (Gas Station/Store) for 1 mile each way hike to Tuolumne Grove where there are about two dozen sequoias. The living trees there are not that big or impressive (for sequoias) compared to those at Calaveras Big Trees (where I have been a few times including last Summer and will probably RV/camp next Summer) and Sequoia National Park (where I have only been once). A sign warns to allow 2-3 hrs in less than 1:15, even though I walked loop at Grove, took a few pictures and stopped for a couple of minutes on the 400' climb back to trailhead.
Attachment 4941Attachment 4942Attachment 4943

Great pictures tseeb, Thanks for sharing !

With a winter weather warning in place Yosemite officials have decided to close the Tioga Pass from 3pm Tomorrow (19th November) until further notice. This is expected to be a temporary closure, but we will have to wait and see how it plays out.

Dave.

Dave, Thanks for you appreciation of my efforts.

This week's storm went further N than predicted - we even had sprinkles overnight Tues in San Jose. Snowfall was supposed to be concentrated between Mammoth and South Lake Tahoe with predictions of 3-9" and 3-7" at Mammoth and Heavenly, respectively while they only received 1-2". Mt Rose ski area, located between NW corner of Lake Tahoe and Reno, with a base elevation of 8,260' received 6-7". Rose has been open since late Oct, but only Fri-Sun with beginner runs until tomorrow 11/22 when they open 7 days a week and may open more terrain.

Assuming Tioga re-opens in the next day or two, my guess of next Tuesday 11/26 could be very close as three days of snow and very cold weather is predicted next Tues-Thurs.

Quote:

---

three days of snow and very cold weather is predicted next Tues-Thurs.

---

That's if it re-opens of course. It's still closed at the moment and with nightime temps hovering around -10C for the rest of the week it could be deemed unsafe if ice is an issue and with more snow is due, who knows ?

Dave.

Here are some quotes taken from an official post on Yosemite's Facebook page.

Quote:

---

We’re expecting lots of snow next week! Keep an eye on the forecast:

---

Quote:

---

Based on the current forecast, tire chains will be required on all roads in the park and some roads normally open in winter could briefly close due to heavy snowfall and/or accidents.

---

Quote:

---

Tioga Road will remain closed through this weekend, and we do not yet have a potential re-opening date.

---

So the pass isn't going to open prior to the weekend and there is potential for a lot of fresh snow. Hmm ?

Dave.

Would they just open it for Monday and close it on Tuesday? Does not seem very likely.

While it seems like storm is slightly delayed, current predictions include 8-12" for Mammoth on Tues. night.

During my two stops in Yosemite earlier this month, it seemed like most of the people I heard were not speaking English. So I'm wondering if NPS does not want to have to deal with foreigners (and I do realize not all non-English speaking people are from other countries) having accidents due to icy conditions in a remote area with an incoming storm in rental vehicles .

I know this is picky, but I think I'll have to make further contact with NPS about https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/tiogaclosed.htm which is titled Driving Directions when the Tioga Road is closed. It says "When the Tioga Road is closed, alternate routes are available to get to various destinations", the directions are how to get to Yosemite from various destinations when Tioga road is closed, not "to various destinations".

Tioga is still listed as 'Temporarily closed' but I can't see anyway back from this incoming storm given that it's late November ! Look at those snow accumulation forecasts !

Quote:

---

TodaySnow, mainly after 3pm. High near 29. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

TonightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 29 by 7pm. Windy, with a southwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 27 to 33 inches possible.

WednesdaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 16 by 9am. Wind chill values as low as zero. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Wednesday NightSnow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Thanksgiving DayA 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. East wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Thursday NightA 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming east in the evening.

FridayA 20 percent chance of snow before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

---

Winter storm warnings are in effect and if you are planning to visit Yosemite you should carry chains, expect delays and get the latest updates before travelling using the number below as listed on the official webpage.

Quote:

---

Expect snow throughout Yosemite Tuesday–Friday (Nov. 24–27). Tire chains will be required on all park roads. Some roads normally open in winter could briefly close due to heavy snowfall and/or accidents. Call 209/372-0200 (then 1, 1) for updates.

---

Dave.

I know it's not "official" yet, but Caltrans says Tioga is closed for the winter.

http://www1.dot.ca.gov/hq/roadinfo/Hourly

Quote:

---

SR 120

[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]

IS CLOSED FROM CRANE FLAT TO 4 MI WEST OF THE JCT OF US 395 /TIOGA PASS/
(TUOLUMNE, MONO CO) - FOR THE WINTER - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE

---

George,

Yeah, by our rules, the NPS is the determining factor of when the road is officially "closed" -- but I agree, it looks like we've achieved the end of Summer travel this year.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...tinel_1128.jpg
"Courtesy of the Yosemite Park Conservancy"

Not much of a hump this year -- but the high country is looking pretty white.

Mark

That's a great capture from the Yosemite webcam Mark, glad you managed to share it !

Dave.

They haven't confirmed the date as yet but the official Yosemite site has confirmed it's closed for the season !

Quote:

---

Tioga Road and Glacier Point Road are closed for the winter
Tioga Road (continuation of Highway 120 through the park) and Glacier Point Road are closed for the season due to snow. They usually reopen in late May or June.

---

We will have to wait and see, but I think the official date will be Tuesday 19th November ! I will check, but I think that would mean no new Champ, but a new DcTpp (Darn close Tioga Pass prognosticator) in anuj1985 who predicted November 20th at 8am on post 4 of this thread.

Edit: The announcement was made on the 27th November which would make tseeb the DcTpp if the Pass was officially declare closed on that day. We await the verdict !

An image of Cooks meadow from Yosemite.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...ook-meadow.jpg

Dave.

Nice photo.

Brrrrrrrrrrrr. That looks like a cold day in the park.

And yes... I figured out how to share the images again from the Web cam. I was going to post a photo from the Mt. Whitney web cam, but it's snowing too hard to see anything! I will post one once the snow stops flying.

Mark

Still too many clouds at Lone Pine to get a photo of Mt. Whitney, so I thought I would share something else.

This is the web cam at Mt. Laguna where is currently 25 degrees F and just 54 miles east of San Diego, California! (Granted it is at 6,000 feet).

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...aguna_1129.jpg
(Courtesy of HPWREN)

I'd heard that it was snowing in East County. Thanks for the picture. Our favorite tent camping spot (spring, summer, fall) was up on Mt Laguna.

Mt. Whitney emerges from the storm (for now)

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...y-11-30-19.jpg
(Courtesy of whitneyzone.com)

and the snow begins flying again...
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...11-30-19_a.jpg
(Courtesy of whitneyzone.com)

They had so much snow at Big Bear that they had to close all 3 roads in to all but residents. Only one has been reopened - CA-18 from the north, so you have to go to Victorville to get there. R3 chains all vehicles no exceptions.

Big Bear Village was reporting four feet of snow on the ground. That's an epic amount of snow for these mountains.

Mark

Another pretty photo from Southern California. This is the main observatory at Mt. Wilson, California
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...cam_120119.jpg
December 1, 2019 @ 10:30 am

Clearing for now -- but it looks a tad chilly

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...y-12-03-19.jpg
(Courtesy of whitneyzone.com)