Competition time. Tioga Pass Prognosticator 38: Winter closing 2024

How would you like to win a free tank of gas for your Road Trip ride!?

This is our 38th attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favourite mountain crossings in the American West, the Tioga pass. The Tioga pass (CA 120) crosses the rugged Sierra Nevada mountains through Yosemite NP, and one thing we know for sure is, each year the Fall/Winter snows will descend upon the mountains and close access to ROAD TRIPPERS for many months. This is your chance to use your predictive skills and win that tank of gas, we don't care how you arrive at the date, you can throw a dart at the calendar, gaze at a crystal ball or study weather patterns and previous years results, or what ever else it takes ! So when do you think Tioga pass will close for the winter of 2024? All you gotta do is follow a few simple rules laid out below and your next road trip could start out with some free miles !

The Competition

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

The Rules

****Please read rules carefully***

To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" and time must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*If you manage to identify the correct closing time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

***When you have identified your prediction in your post you must "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection.)***

Look at these contrasting images from the High Sierra webcam!

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_05-21_13.jpg
With the snows, the 'Hump' forms and partially blocks the view.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...inel-Feb-7.jpg

Below is some information from previous years that may help in making your choice.

Official closing dates in recent years.
2023 November 15th
2022 October 31st
2021 October 21st (Very early closure)
2020 November 5th
2019.November 19th
2018:November 20th
2017: November 14th
2016: November 16th
2015: November 1st
2014: November 13th
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th

..and the previous 10 Winter closing Competitions.
2023 Winter closing
2022 Winter closing
2021 Winter closing
2020 Winter closing. Cancelled due to Pandemic
2019 Winter closing
2018 Winter closing
2017 Winter closing
2016 Winter closing
2015 Winter closing
2014 Winter closing

A link to the previous opening and closing dates from Yosemite NPS.

And a look at what's happening in Yosemite right now from the High Sierra webcam.

Previous Tioga Pass Prognosticator Champs!

Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2018. Reigning Champ!
......................(tantrum), Spring 2015 Opening (never identified or claimed the prize)
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
..................... (weirj), Winter 2008 (never identified or claimed the prize)

..and the DcTPP's (Darn Close Tioga Pass Prognosticators)
************** Tony (tseeb) 2024 Spring opening
************** liam2k04 2023 Winter closing
************** Mark Sedenquist 2023 Spring opening
************** Southwest Dave 2022 Spring opening
************** tseeb. 2020 Spring opening
**************anuj1985. winter closing 2019
**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Here are some POF (Proof of fuel) photo's from previous happy winners!

Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018 and still reigning Champ!
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...19_Barstow.jpg

George Carey (glc) Spring opening 2014
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg

George again, Spring 2013 (Back to back wins)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg

CANative Spring 2011.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg

Brian Shannon. (Exodus) Spring, 2010.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg

Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg

So, there you go folks. Happy Prognosticating and keep on Road Tripping!

Dave

November 26th at 5pm (PST) is my first dart thrown in.

Dave: Thanks for getting this page set-up again!

Mark

5pm on 21st November

Just some news.

My brother, Dan, drove over Tioga Pass yesterday in a full-on snow storm. And there is considerable snow on the upper slopes of Yosemite today.

Mark

I saw the weather forecast earlier, and now there are warnings in place and the Tioga pass is temporarily closed. Unfortunately the High Sierra webcam isn't active at the moment and has been showing the same image over the last few days.

Quote:

---

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
inches.

* WHERE...Elevations above 9,000 feet. Includes Yosemite NP
outside of the valley, Upper San Joaquin River, Kings Canyon
NP, and Sequoia NP.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to snow covered
roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Stronger showers and thunderstorms could
briefly lower snow levels to around 8,000 to 8,500 feet at
times.

---

Dave

Just had to share this photo. This is the top of the TrailFest racing course on Mammoth Mountain. TrailFest is an annual running race. I am sure that there has been snow on the top of the mountain this early before -- but usually everyone on the summit is in shorts and tee shirts for this race.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...lFest_1023.jpg
Mammoth Mountain -- top of the TrailFest course, September 20th at 10:18 am PDT

12:01 AM, 10/22, 2024

However, the Planetary Scientist in me wants to take a much later date due to Global Warming.

Buck,

Could you please provide a bit more background on how this date was determined?

Quote:

---

Edit: So, I didn't realize that Buck's date was a prognostication date -- I thought he was referring to a planetary scale date and I was clearly lost-in-translation. There is no reason to provide an explanation. We are ALL true PROGNOSTICATORS.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AZBuck

12:01 AM, 10/22, 2024

However, the Planetary Scientist in me wants to take a much later date due to Global Warming.

---

Buck.
Don't forget to 'Ping the poll' above in the date range that covers your prediction.

Dave

The weather looks fantastic in Yosemite right now, with clear blue sky's and temperatures in the valley in the 80's, possibly rising to 90F by Tuesday. Even up on the Tioga pass the temps are hitting the mid 70's!

I am going for November 15th at 5pm.

Dave

mid-70's at the pass will certainly be melting that early snow!

Looks like we all betting on a November close this year. Time will tell.

Mark

That recent snow is all gone????

I can't even remember seeing Yosemite Falls in October with no water flowing?

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...s_no_water.jpg
Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy -- October 12, 2024

Looking like a dry fall, so I am going to go with Monday, December 2 at 4:00 pm.

Yes, I am thinking about changing gears and tossing in another dart -- perhaps even later than yours!

Good luck on your prognostication!

Mark

Quote:

---

I can't even remember seeing Yosemite Falls in October with no water flowing?

---

It was very dry and bright and the Falls were at a trickle when we visited in late October 2007, but it was cold enough to freeze the pass overnight and cause temporary closures. It eventually closed for the season on the 6th December that year.

It could well be a late closure, but we know how quickly things can change in the Sierra's.

Dave

Yosemite continues to enjoy blue sky's and settled weather. On Wednesday the temperature is due to peak at around 89F, the average for the month is 71F. While looking at averages, I noticed that Fresno had it's hottest ever recorded temperature in October, on Thursday 3rd it was recorded to be 105F!

Dave

So, in Las Vegas, last week we had triple digits in the valley, and snow fell on the local mountains on Friday morning. So, I would say that the weather is unsettled to be sure.

I think it is less and less likely that we'll see a November closure, so I am going to remove my dart from the 26th of November at 5pm PST and throw a new prognosticator dart on the 20th of December at 8 am PST.

Quote:

---

[I am unable to re_PING the poll]

---

But I would if I could...

Mark

I was sort of curious how I had performed as a prognosticator for the TPP for winter closings over the last few years (and obviously I didn't feel like working this morning...) so I looked at the winter closing and openings over the last couple of years.

It was fun looking at our coverage of the heavy snow years!

Winter Prognosticator Closing
My darts: November 15, 2020..........................Actual was November 5, 2020
My darts: Nov. 30, 2021 + Dec. 3, 2021.............Actual was October 21, 2021
My darts: Nov. 21, 2022 .................................Actual was October 31, 2022
My darts: Nov. 17, 2023 + Dec. 8, 2023 ............Actual was November 15, 2023
My darts: Nov. 26, 2024 + Dec. 20, 2024 ..........Actual was...(still pending).......

Interestingly, my first prognosticator guess for Spring Openings was much closer to the mark:
My darts: May 12, 2020..................................Actual was May 27, 2020
My darts: May 12, 2021.................................Actual was May 27, 2021
My darts: May 12, 2023 + July 24, 2023...........Actual was July 22, 2023
My darts: June 7, 2024 ...............................Actual was June 10, 2024

I also looked at the incidence of Winter Closings since 2002. It has occurred in November every year except: 2003, 2004, 2007, 2012, 2021, & 2022.

So on we go!

Mark

It looks lovely there this morning!

Image taken from the High Sierra webcam today at 10:50am.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...0-Oct-2024.jpg

Dave

Wow, I didn't know the web camera was back working.

Good Job posting this today!

Mark

As we near the end of October there is a change to the weather which will close the Tioga pass on Sunday at 6pm. This a temporary closure due to the risk of weather disruption. On Monday snow showers are likely, and although not accumulating to much, the temperature plummets to a day time high of 39F and a night time low of 17F making for Icey conditions.

The view from the High Sierra webcam today
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog...s/Oct-26th.jpg

Dave

Closing, depending on weather more than two weeks out, is always more of a guess to me than opening, which depends on Winter and Spring snowfall and to a lesser extent, Spring weather.

My guess is Tuesday 11/26 at noon as I expect Tioga to close before US Thanksgiving and that leaves some room between my guess and previous ones.

I see Sonora is still closed today while Yosemite website says all roads are open. I think Tioga may close with storm on Halloween, but it should re-open with sunnier weather predicted afterwards.

I had not been on this website for a while and saw on https://www.roadtripamerica.com/foru...etition!/page8 that I said I would add some photos from May 2024 which I finally did.

The weather still looks very settled in Yosemite. The forecast predicts that snow is likely on Veterans day, but only a 20 percent chance there will be more to follow on Tuesday.

Dave

The Tioga pass and Glacier point road both closed on Sunday at 2:30pm and will remain closed until further notice. For the time being, this is a temporary closure, and they will be re-assessed once the storm has passed. The forecast predicts there will be 'on and off' snow right through the week, and into Monday without amounting to much. Although night time temperatures are dipping as low as 1F later in the week, I can't see it opening up anytime soon, if at all?

There is quite a bit of snow today as shown on the High Sierra webcam. (This will probably update automatically as I can't find a way to take a still image at the moment)

Dave

There is a WINTER WEATHER ALERT IN AFFECT.

Quote:

---

From the National Weather Service.
Yosemite NP outside of the valley-Yosemite Valley-San Joaquin
River Canyon-Upper San Joaquin River-Kaiser to Rodgers Ridge-
Kings Canyon NP-Grant Grove Area-Sequoia NP-South End of the
Upper Sierra-
Including the cities of Florence Lake, Devils Postpile, Yosemite
Valley, Lake Wishon, Grant Grove, Johnsondale, Wawona, Shaver
Lake, Giant Forest, Huntington Lake, Cedar Grove, Tuolumne
Meadows, Lodgepole, Hume Lake, and Lake Thomas Edison
847 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 6 inches and
up to 13 inches at the higher elevations.

* WHERE...A portion of central California.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening
commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

---

Personally, I think this could be enough to close it for the Season.

Dave

Here is a screen grab. The live shot is showing active snow falling.
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog.../1115_1201.jpg
Courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy -- November 15th at 12:00 pm

Yep, lots of white stuff flying around.

It is sleeting in the valley floor right now.

And snow is coming down on the lower slopes (where the webcam for El Capitan is positioned.)

Yeah, I think Southwest Dave might be right -- this could close the pass!

Mark

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Here is a screen grab. The live shot is showing active snow falling.

Yep, lots of white stuff flying around.

Mark

---

That's much better than passive snow falling ;)

Yeah, I was trying to see who might be closest to the prognostication for today.

Mark

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Here is a screen grab. The live shot is showing active snow falling.

---

Thanks. I tried to grab from the live image, but it kept repeating the previous image I copied on a earlier post.

Dave

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Yeah, I was trying to see who might be closest to the prognostication for today.

Mark

---

The Tioga pass was closed on Sunday 10th as I understand it. If that ends up being the date for a full closure, I would be the closest, but still a long way off with my prediction of the 15th Nov

Dave

It is sleeting in the valley floor right now.

And snow is coming down on the lower slopes (where the webcam for El Capitan is positioned.)

Look at the live shots right now! Lots of LARGE birds in the valley floor camera and clouds are clearing

Sheriff Dave,

Any updates yet?

Mark

Both roads are still closed and there are snow showers forecast throughout the second half of the week. It certainly doesn't look enough to call a Seasonal closure just yet, but it doesn't seem like Tioga pass is going to be open any time soon, if at all!

Dave

With heavy snow possible from Friday, through the weekend and beyond, this is starting to look very much like this could be it for the season. Maybe we will see the return of the 'Hump' on the Webcam image by the beginning of next week!

Dave

I know that that nearly 6 feet of snow is supposed to reach the northern Sierra by tomorrow night, but look how gorgeous it is right now!
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog.../1121_1034.jpg
November 21st at 10:30 am PST (Courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy)

And no humps yet!
https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog.../1121_1039.jpg
(Courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy)

Per Yosemite National Park's website, the status of Tioga and Glacier Point Roads has been updated to "closed for the winter." I believe this would put the closing date/time as November 11 at 2:30 pm.

Sounds likely. Now, Sheriff Dave has to make his "semi-official declaration."

Wow, all of the Yosemite web cams seem to be offline.

Mark

The webcams are back.

Where the heck is this massive Cyclone Bomb of snow that is supposed to be here now?

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog.../1122_1131.jpg
November 22nd at 11:30 am PST -- Courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy

Cameras seem to be offline again,

The time stamp on this image was 7 am. Today.

https://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog.../1123_0922.jpg
November 23rd at 07:00 am PST -- Courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy

As liam2k04 mentioned above, both the Tioga pass and Glacier point road are closed for the season, and it appears that they both closed on November 11 @2:30pm. We will wait and see if we get an official verdict for now, but I have noted that the Official Opening and closing page on the Yosemite website hasn't updated the 2024 Spring opening yet!

Looking at the weather forecast and seeing what is coming over the next few days I can see why they called it! There is an Urgent weather winter weather message in force.

Quote:

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1137 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

CAZ323-326>331-240345-
/O.CON.KHNX.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-241127T0000Z/
Yosemite NP outside of the valley-Upper San Joaquin River-Kaiser
to Rodgers Ridge-Kings Canyon NP-Grant Grove Area-Sequoia NP-
South End of the Upper Sierra-
Including the cities of Florence Lake, Devils Postpile, Shaver
Lake, Cedar Grove, Lake Wishon, Huntington Lake, Hume Lake,
Lodgepole, Tuolumne Meadows, Grant Grove, Johnsondale, Giant
Forest, Lake Thomas Edison, and Wawona
1137 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow above 6500 feet. Total snow accumulations
between 10 and 24 inches possible. High elevation snow up to 4
feet. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of central California.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday
morning and evening commutes.

---

Dave