Tioga Pass Prognosticator #18

Advent of the Winter RoadTrip Season in the West

This is our eighteenth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. (I know it just opened for the 2014 summer travel season, and the road isn't even dry from the snow melt, but time marches on...)

The current reigning Chief Prognosticator, George Carey known on the Great American RoadTrip Forum as glc is one of the most active members of this forum. He is actually a Two-Peat TPP having correctly predicted the opening dates for both Spring, 2013 and Spring, 2014. There is one other member who shares the credit for achieving a two-peat of the TPP. Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative) on the forum) correctly identified the opening in Spring, 2011 and the closing during the Winter of 2011. Both George and Jessica have also notched dcTPP notches in their Tioga Pass Prognosticator belts...

This year, the western drought continues to affect weather patterns in the Yosemite National Park area. There is some possibility that this year will see El Nino weather patterns which should, in theory, bring earlier snow and rain to the Sierra Nevadas and close the pass earlier -- but on-going climate change will certainly affect whatever storms come this way. There have only been four other TPPs awarded since this featured event began in Spring, 2006.

There was no official winner of the Chief Prognosticator (TPP) for the 2013 Winter Closing, but Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), was awarded the Winter dcTPP (darn-close prognosticator).

Rainfall & snow predictions will probably be trickier than normal this year. Do you have what it takes to be the new Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator?

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th
2001: November 11th

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD*
Please read entry rules carefully
To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing...
Spring 2012 Opening
Fall 2012 Closing
Spring 2013 Opening!
Winter, 2013 Closing
Spring, 2014 Opening.

Past honorees with their POG photos: (Proof of Gas...)

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg
GEORGE CAREY is the TPP for 2014 -- shown with his road trip ride on June 15, 2014.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg
2013 TPP is George Carey (glc) shown posing above with this RoadTrip Ride at the local Conoco station.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...os-Kingman.jpg
JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): Winter Closing 2011 Tioga Pass Prognosticator

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg
JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): 2011 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg
BRIAN SHANNON, (Exodus): 2010 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg
PHIL BOARDMAN, (PhilB): 2009 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

And here you can monitor current conditions from 4 Web cams in Yosemite NP:
Yosemite Falls
El Capitan
Half Dome
High Sierra

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

By the way, click here to see what Half Dome looks like when snow is falling....

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

I am predicting a nice, wet fall.... (crossing my toes as I write this). So putting in the first dart for Monday, December 1st at Noon.

Mark

Did you know it snowed last night at Yosemite?
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...nel_052014.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
Captured at ~ 7:45 am PDT

Yes this weather was forecast as I forewarned on the TPP 17 thread a couple of days ago. It's about until Thursday and although it might not be enough to cause a closure, it's certainly worth checking for updates over the next few days if you have travel plans over the Pass.

Dave.

The official Yosemite status page has the road listed as 'Call' before travelling, but according to reports there is a temporary closure in force for Tioga pass and Glacier point.

Dave.

Gorgeous day -- nonetheless on the 22nd...
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-05-22-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
Captured at ~ 11:30 am PDT

Yosemite Falls on May 22nd!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...s-05-22-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
Captured at ~ 11:35 am PDT

Gorgeous light on the afternoon of Saturday, May 24th:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...s-05-24-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
Captured at ~ 5:45 pm PDT

Yosemite Falls on June 11th at about 6:30 PM PDT. Not quite as strong as a month ago!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...s-06-11-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

Actually if you want to see something amazing.... check out these photos from Iguazú Falls in Brazil!

A nice view of the Yosemite high country -- not too much smoke at the moment:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-08-27-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

And this is what Yosemite Falls looks like at the end of summer....
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...s-08-27-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

This is not the view we want to see. Looks like four or more separate spot fires burning to the SW of Half Dome:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...el-09-7-14.jpg
September 7th at about 2:00 pm PDT
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

Yes, this was dubbed the Meadow Fire.

Here is video about the 80 hikers on Half Dome that were evacuated from the top by helicopter.

Pretty amazing photo captured by Michael Frye at about 9pm on Sunday.

More photos on the MeadowFire hashtag

Throwing my hat in for Tuesday, October 21 at 10:30 AM. (edited to correct date)

It's getting closer to 'that time', the year seems to have flown by ! That would be an early closure RahRah, the second earliest since 1980 in fact, the earliest being on October 17th in 2004.

The temperatures in the valley are expected to be in the mid 90's for the first half of this week !

Dave.

The Valley is still experiencing fine conditions and temps are in the mid 80's this week. Even up in the mountains it is reaching into 60F at 9000ft ! Not bad at all for October !

Dave.

It's still fine weather on the pass at the moment but things are looking more famliar for the time of year. There is chance of a light snow flurry Saturday morning with temps dropping to below freezing at night. [26F] The valley on the otherhand, is still experiencing some wonderful weather with temperatures seeing the mid 70's [F] untill the weekend and then dropping away to 60/65F. A great time to visit for anyone headed that way !

Dave.

Friday, Nov. 21. 10am.

As we near November the first significant winter storm arrives.

Quote:

---

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
411 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CAZ096-311915-
/O.CON.KHNX.WS.W.0004.141101T0000Z-141101T1800Z/
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
411 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY...

* SNOW AND ELEVATION...4 TO 8 INCHES FROM 6000 TO 8000 FEET. 6 TO
15 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...INCLUDING TUOLUMNE
MEADOWS AND TIOGA PASS AS WELL AS KINGS CANYON NATIONAL PARK AND
HUNTINGTON LAKE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THIS IS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON. THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION FROM RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY
TO COLD AND SNOWY VERY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANYONE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PLAN AHEAD FOR ADVERSE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS MAY INCLUDE DELAYING OR CANCELING
TRAVEL PLANS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

---

It looks as though the sky will clear and weather settle down on Sunday, but the temperature is dropping away.

Dave.

The snow has arrived as the Sentinel cam shows.

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2...ps7ce24d37.jpg

Word is that Tioga pass will close temporarily later today.

Dave.

Just looked at the Caltrans site - it is indeed closed, as are Ebbetts, Sonora, and Monitor passes. Carson and US50 have chain restrictions. Lassen is closed.

Despite fine weather returning the pass is expected to remain closed at least until the weekend. There is a reported foot of snow layed down around Tenaya lake area.

From Yosemite NP.

Quote:

---

The Tioga Road (Hwy 120 through the park) and Glacier Point Road are temporarily closed due to snow. They will be evaluated Sunday or Monday for possible reopening. Check current road conditions/chain restrictions by calling 209/372-0200 (then dial 1

---

Dave.

According to the Caltrans site, Ebbetts and Monitor are now open. Sonora and Tioga are still closed.

Yeah, all of the passes were closed when I passed by them on my way south on US-395 yesterday...

Mark

Everything is open again.

Can you believe that this area was snow-covered only a couple of days ago?
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_11-08-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy
Captured on November 8, 2014 at ~ 12:40 pm PST

A little bit more snow possible this week, but doesn't look as though it will be anything of significance and the water temperature remains above freezing. Is it going to be another late one or will a big storm sweep in and do it's worst. Your guess is as good as mine !

Dave.

Tioga Pass is currently closed due to snow so keep checking for updates if you are travelling in the area.

Dave.

The pass remains closed at present with a little more snow possible in the middle of next week. I think the first big snow storm to hit will close the pass for the season at this stage.

I'm gonna go for December 2nd @ Noon as that'll be 30 years since my first date with Lezli. [Now wife for 25 years]

Dave.

That's a very sweet way to commemorate that first date!

mark

December 10 at noon.

Weather is beginning to close in a bit:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_11-19-14.jpg
Captured November 19th at about 3:20 pm PST.
Photo courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy

December 11th at 2:30 pm is my current guess.

As a resident of Southern California, I certainly hope there is enough snow to close the road this year. I'll also pick a significant family date -- my mother-in-law's 100th birthday.

December 9th at 3 pm.

Jessica,

Nice to see you back here!

Just a light crust of the white stuff from today's storm:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_11-20-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy
Captured November 20th at ~ 3:35 pm PST

Before 9am on 13th December, feast of the patron saint of good eyesight, and the patron of Sweden (and my half birthday).

Lifey

Unless you say otherwise Lifey I will take your prediction to be at 9am as "before 9am" is not really specific enough for the bonus prize of being within 1 hour of the opening. ;-)

Dave.

The pass remains closed, but with little snow on the ground and a reasonable weather forecast for the week ahead, lets hope that changes. I think it highlights the fact that the 'accountants' have decided that no money will be spent trying to keep it open as long as possible and that they are happy to let nature run it's course.

Dave.

It looks as though there is a real possibility of [light ?] snow in the mountains from Saturday through to the following Wednesday. With the pass still shut with just an inch and a half of snow reported in Tuolumne meadows I am starting to seriously doubt whether it will re-open at all this season, unless it happens in the next couple of days.

Dave.

It does seem odd to have it closed with such a small bit of snow on the ground. Not much showing here either:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_11-27-14.jpg
Captured at 6:55 am PST
Photo courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy

MELTING FAST!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...11-27-14_a.jpg
Captured at 2:55 PM PST
Photo courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy

There's even water going over the cliff at Yosemite Falls!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...s_11-27-14.jpg
Captured at 3:03 PM PST
Photo courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy

Whoa! Look closely -- you can see waterfalls running in several places -- Looks pretty wet today!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_11_29-14.jpg
Captured at 1:55 PM PST
Photo courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy

Significant snow is expected to arrive this week, possibly between 2 and 3 feet of it ! Given that it has remained closed with what seems to be a couple of inches on the road for most of November it could be it. I will have to dig around, but I think the last time it was actually open was November 1st.

From the weather service announcement.

Quote:

---

This will reduce visibility and may cause localized flash flooding. In the California mountains, 1-2 feet of snow is expected with the highest peaks approaching 3 feet.

---

Dave.

GLC had posted it was open on Nov. 7, and then you announced it was closed on the 14th - so the date is probably in that range.

Either way, it doesn't look like we'll have a winner this time.

Still looks like rain only falling over most of Yosemite. So.... hard to know if is really "officially" closed now.

Mark

No way of knowing if that is it or not for the season, not until they call it. Although it doesn't look like much snow from the Sentinell cam, there has been more snow to the east of the Sierras at Mammoth and at June mountain where there is 16inches of snow on the ground. Oh I wish they could power up the kiosk cam at the east entrance again, that one really did give you a good picture of conditions on the road.

Glacier point road is still open.

Dave.

Heavy snow is expected Thursday and Friday with new snow accumulation of over 24 inches possible.

Dave.