Tioga Pass Prognosticator #16

Advent of the Winter RoadTrip Season in the West
This is our sixteenth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. (I know it just opened for the 2013 summer travel season, and the road isn't even dry from the snow melt, but time marches on...)

The current Reigning Chief Prognosticator, George Carey known on the Great American RoadTrip Forum as glc is one of the most active members of this forum. He was also the dcTPP (darn close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) for the Spring opening, 2012. He joins a very august and rarefied group of sitting TPPs -- there have only been four other TPPs awarded since this featured event began in Spring, 2006. Although one of this elite group, Jessica Beagles-Roos, managed to predict the winning date with back-to-back predictions for the Spring opening and Winter closing in 2011.

There are five other dcTPPs... Jessica Beagles-Roos CaNative, Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2013, 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively.

Rainfall & snow predictions will probably be trickier than normal this year. Do you have what it takes to be the new Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator?

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th
2001: November 11th

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD*
Please read entry rules carefully
To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing...
Spring 2012 Opening
Fall 2012 Closing
Spring 2013 Opening!
Spring Opening 2014.
Spring Opening 2014.
Winter Closing 2014.

Past honorees with their POG photos: (Proof of Gas...)

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg
Current reining TPP is George Carey (glc) shown posing above with this RoadTrip Ride at the local Conoco station.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...os-Kingman.jpg
JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): Winter Closing 2011 Tioga Pass Prognosticator

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg
JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): 2011 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg
BRIAN SHANNON, (Exodus): 2010 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg
PHIL BOARDMAN, (PhilB): 2009 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

And here you can monitor current conditions from 4 Web cams in Yosemite NP:
Yosemite Falls
El Capitan
Half Dome
High Sierra

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

By the way, click here to see what Half Dome looks like when snow is falling....

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

First Dart in......

Monday, December 30th at 8:30 am

Mark

After a couple of 'dry' winters I got a hunch there will be more snow this year and things will return to near normal, so for me it's,

November 7th @ 5pm

Good luck folks !

Dave.

Yes, it's possible I've set the poll bar too low for an early winter closing...

Edit: I've revised the poll so that the earliest benchmark is actually October 31st...

Mark

Extremely sad.

Road appears to be closed now to the public in order to facilitate access for firefighters and equipment. Given size and intensity of fire, road may be closed awhile.

Here is a very good video using Google's Fly-by technology that shows were the Rim Fire is burning and it's location relative to other Yosemite-area landmarks.

And one of the best sources for current information is this article, being updated daily.

The pass is open - the road is closed between Crane Flat and Yosemite Creek.

the assumption has been that road would be closed for snow at a high point which is generally Tioga Pass but occasionally has been Olmsted Point (avalanche danger). On YNP website the road status is in orange.

Sheriff Dave, can you provide clarification? Are we guessing closure at a specific point on the road, that is Tioga Pass, or closure at any pointon the road which precludes driving through the park.

I hope they can get this [and other] fires under control soon ! We need the rain gods to help out !

As for the competition clarification, things haven't really changed. The winning date will be the one that matches the official closing date for Tioga Pass on the Yosemite NP pages, which is not announced until it is clarified as a permanent closure. It's not decided on a particular point along the road, it is a case of when the pass is no longer drivable across the Sierras for the season.

Dave.

120 has been reopened from Groveland into the park, but the Tioga Road is still closed from Crane Flat to Yosemite Creek. Hetch Hetchy is still closed.

Very smoking conditions again in Yosemite Valley.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...oky_130912.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

The Yosemite NPS site now says this:

Quote:

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The Tioga Road (Highway 120 through the park) is closed from Crane Flat to 1.5 miles east of White Wolf at least through the weekend.

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From YNP Facebook posting --

Quote:

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The news you've all been waiting for: the Tioga Road has fully reopened! Tuolumne Meadows is again accessible from the west and Yosemite Valley is accessible from the east. The Merced Grove will open tomorrow morning at 8 am (the Tuolumne Grove remains closed). Thanks to fire crews for all your hard work! Continued updates will be posted at http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/rimfire.htm.

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And gorgeous weather and conditions are back to SOP status in Yosemite:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-09-25-13.jpg
(Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy)
Captured at 11:40 am PDT

Sept 30th Posting on Mono-Logue --

Quote:

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With the possibility of the first Federal Government shutdown in 17 years, one of the first questions in Lee Vining is, “Will Tioga Pass stay open?” Fortunately, the answer is “yes.” Yosemite National Park staff in Yosemite Valley indicate that Highway 120 through the Park will remain open. Stopping, visiting the park, and all recreation will be prohibited. Only staff related to emergency assistance and law enforcement will remain working within the park boundaries.

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Thanks for sharing that info Jessica, that is good news for travellers.

Dave.

Occupy Yosemite was held at the Tioga Pass entrance station rather than inside the park at Tuolomne Meadows. on Friday. Skies were blue and late afternoon temperature dropped to 20's.

It looks lovely in Yosemite right now but there is a high wind warning in place from 5pm this afternoon to 5am tomorrow morning with gusts of up to 75mph possible in the high Sierra. Following this there will be a good chance of snow for Mon through to Tues night, it's not likely to be a significant amount, but it's a start.

Happy Prognosticating folks !

Dave.

Picking November 23rd; Big Game date. I expect Stanfurd will crush The Bears, so I might as well hope for some precipitation as a consolation prize*.

Can I have a ruling on using a sliding start time? I'll take official game time, whatever it turns out to be. Due to TV contracts it hasn't been picked yet, but whatever they pick is what I'll claim as my entry.

OK Sheriff?

* (For those not following and who don't care anyway, Cal is now 1-7 while Stanford is ranked #5 nationally. Of course The Bears have already lost to the #2, #4 and #20 teams, so why not go for four losses against top 20 teams? oy!)

That's OK Don, let me know the time when it's confirmed and I can update your post.

Dave.

Lets throw out our guess... and say it will stay open through Thanksgiving weekend, but then shutdown at noon on December 2nd.

This morning's Caltrans report shows Monitor, Ebbetts, Sonora, and Tioga closed and chain restrictions on I-80, US-50, and Carson.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_10_28-13.jpg
Photo courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy

That's really something. It was 20 years ago (yesterday) that our erstwhile home in LA was consumed by a wildfire -- it was a bit warmer and drier that day.

Mark

I'll try November 17th at 4 pm.

Apologies to Cal Old Blue, but my family is gathering to attend the "Big Game" on the Farm and would rather not have precipitation.

Jessica

December 8, 4pm.

Everything is quiet and remains settled in Yosemite for the next few days at least. If you are in the area or lucky enough to live nearby then Yosemite is offering free admission in celebration of Veterans day this weekend from Saturday 9th through Monday 11th.

An Autumn video from Yosemites Nature notes series.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzA-M8ASGqk

Dave.

I'm going to choose my birthday if no one else has claimed it.

November 28 at 2:17 PM

Utahtea

Apart from a small amount of snow possible on Thanksgiving day it still remains clear in the mountains and it's once again heading for a very dry year again.

Can the contest continue into another year [2014] for only the second time in history and for 2 consecutive years ?

I think not, so I will take another shot and say December 19th @ 5pm

It's actually been closed for the past few days from the last storm.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by glc

It's actually been closed for the past few days from the last storm.

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It's been know to reopen so I have no idea if my original date of Nov. 28th is still in the running or not. If I make another guess does my original date get thrown out even if it's the winner? Should I wait and see? Also the rules state that our chosen date has to be posted on this forum more than or equal to fifteen days prior to the offical Tigoa Pass Road Closing date as per the rules? Does that apply to second guesses too?

Please read entry rules carefully To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. -



If my date has to be 15 days from date posted, then I'd like to take Dec. 13th at 2:17 PM but I don't want it if it means I might lose out on my original date of Nov. 28. If I can make a prediction earlier than the 15 days, then I might make a different prediction.

Please advise :)

Utahtea

Sheriff Dave is the ultimate decision-maker on this, but here is my take on your questions:

Quote:

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It's been know to reopen so I have no idea if my original date of Nov. 28th is still in the running or not. If I make another guess does my original date get thrown out even if it's the winner?

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Most of us have made second and even third guesses, but I don't of anyone who won in the way postulated. But I can say that I believe that November 28th is no longer in the running for this contest.

Quote:

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Also the rules state that our chosen date has to be posted on this forum more than or equal to fifteen days prior to the offical Tigoa Pass Road Closing date as per the rules? Does that apply to second guesses too?

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Yes, this is firm no matter how many times you entry a guess.

Quote:

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If my date has to be 15 days from date posted, then I'd like to take Dec. 13th at 2:17 PM but I don't want it if it means I might lose out on my original date of Nov. 28. If I can make a prediction earlier than the 15 days, then I might make a different prediction.

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You can make any prediction you'd like -- but an early prediction will not be in the "contest period" as per the rules.

Mark

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Sheriff Dave is the ultimate decision-maker on this, but here is my take on your questions:

Most of us have made second and even third guesses, but I don't of anyone who won in the way postulated. But I can say that I believe that November 28th is no longer in the running for this contest.
Yes, this is firm no matter how many times you entry a guess.
You can make any prediction you'd like -- but an early prediction will not be in the "contest period" as per the rules.

Mark

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Thanks Mark

In that case if it's not to late, I'll take Friday, December 13th at 2:17 PM.

Utahtea

(edited to add the time)

Just to confirm that Mark is correct and both your dates remain in the contest, but it looks most unlikely that 28th Nov will be a the date going by the info we have thus far. Of course if it opened briefly and closed again and that's the official date that is posted for the closure, it's a winner.

2:17pm is very specific, so I'm guessing it might be a DOB or similar. It does leave you about 5 hours short of 15 days if we go by the time you posted your prediction, but we can let that one go. ;-)

Good luck !

Dave.

THANK YOU! 2:17 is time of birth :) I was just keeping the same time as my first prediction. I know I was cutting it close but I did mention it the first time with in the 15 days. I just didn't know the rules then. ;)

Dec 17th, 2013 at 3 pm
and
Jan 1st, 2014 at 3 pm.

Oh but I've forgotten how to ping the poll for additional guesses.

There is a possibility of 6 inches of fresh snow near the east kiosk through Tuesday with temperatures dropping to minus 17 C followed by another dusting of snow on Weds. It looks clear after this, but is followed by daytime highs of minus 6 C and nightime lows of minus 15 C at 8600ft near Tuolumne meadows. Although not much snow has been put down, perhaps winter is starting to get a grip on the pass and it's not likely to re-open unless it thaws out up there.

From what I can tell, the last time it was open was back on Nov 19th but we will have to wait and see.

The updated forecast looks even less promising now with a couple of feet of fresh snow possible.

Quote:

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Friday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

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It might not be far away from an official announcement if this little lot comes down.

Yep, this could be it. Ebbetts/Monitor/Sonora are all closed and there are a lot of chain restrictions out there right now. Only way to get across the Sierras right now without chains or 4wd with snow tires is I-80.

Keep your eyes open, Sheriff - as per Caltrans: Ebbetts, Monitor, and Sonora all closed for the winter today, 12/9.

Yep..... Looks like a closure announcement is around the corner...