Spring Rite of Passage: Tioga Pass Prognosticator #11
This is our eleventh attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Last Spring, (June 2010) RTA Forum Member, Exodus, claimed the title of Reigning Chief Prognosticator when he correctly named the opening day and opening time of this famous highway. {Exodus' winning prediction was June 5th at 8:00 am} Winners with their prizes can be found here.
Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. For all of those folks who think that Tioga Pass is not a big deal... one of our long-time roadtripper colleagues remembers driving it in the 1930's when it was a single lane, dirt track, with no guardrails and drop-offs on both sides of the road....
************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...
In the past we've had four winners of the dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) -- Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively, and the first Tioga Pass Prognosticator award was presented to weirj in Winter 2008. We're now looking for our third Tioga Pass Prognosticator for the Spring road opening. Maybe you're the next one?
So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Jessica Beagles-Roo (CANative) Spring, 2011
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007
Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2011: June 18th (8:45 am)
2010: June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th
And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.
The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD
* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.
When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page
Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
And here you can monitor current conditions from some Web cams in Yosemite NP.
And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).
And if you go to the Winter, 2010 TPP and look at this page, (scroll down the page) you'll see a live Web cam of Half Dome together with a still taken on November 24, 2010 to see how much snow fell in late November! I've since added shots taken in January and March, 2011 -- the March 2011 is truly astounding....
Happy Predicting!
Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff
Voting my birthday... again
So, I'm declaring a vote for May 12th at 11:45 am....
-- Mark
Some useless info for you predictors!
^^ Thanks travelingman, I need more like you if I am to win the prize !!
You might be interested to know that the Mono Lake committee recorded a record amount of November snowfall since 1994 ! Although there will be many factors at work, it's hardly surprising that the 1995 opening was the second latest since 1980, when it finally opened on June 30.
The snow depth at Tioga entry station would appear to be well above average at a depth of 40" and there is a 'humdinger' of a storm forecast over the weekend that could dump between 43 and 73" of fresh snow !!
My prediction June 16 @ 4pm
Good luck to all !
A quick update and competition reminder.
Things have settled down on the pass for the time being but with the snow pack reportedly between 60 and 70 in deep at Tuolumne meadows it would appear to be well above average for the time of year compared to the last few seasons.
Today's picture taken from the Web cam at Sentinel dome.
http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j2...iteJan2011.jpg
That link doesn't load but....
Hard to imagine there could be 60' feet of snow anywhere in North America. 60 inches (5 feet) Yeah, I could see that.
But nice photo capture!
Mark
The 'in' in inches innit.
OK wise guy ! I had meant to type > 'between 60 and 70in' but must have got carried away with the space bar. Lol.
Yeah, that links slow on the main Yosemite page as well so it should update.
Normal 'service' resumed.
With no significant snowfall for Approx 6 weeks and above average temperatures for the time of year, the snow pack depth has decreased by quite a bit from it's 'above average' December levels. Up to now though, it has been so settled there has been nothing worthy of an update going on.
However, that is all about to change as we return to more familiar weather for the time of year. A winter weather watch is in place for the area as a storm approaches today. The forecast through to the weekend is predicting between 40" and 65" of fresh snow accumulation above 7000ft !!
Improbably opening possible
I'm predicting the opening will actually happen on 5/23 because I want to be able to drive it when I'm in that area for the very 1st time! We are touring parts of CA and sure want to drive over Tioga Pass on the way to Lake Tahoe. I'm expecting unseasonally warm weather in May to speed the melting process! (Hopefully without causing other problems.)
Brock
[Almost] Anythings possible
Hi Brock and welcome to the RTA forums !
Good luck with your prediction and I hope they get it open for you !
Half Dome visible again. [just]
The current view from the Sentinel dome camera.
http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j2...ntineldome.jpg
The latest report from Tuolumne Meadows confirms that it is indeed an 'out of the ordinary' season.
Quote:
Update for March 30, 2011
Posted: March 31, 2011 | posted by: Jeffrey Trust!
Weather: (March 24 through March 30)
High temp: 53°F (March 30)
Low temp: -1°F (March 25)
New Snow: 38 inches
Total settled snow depth: 84 inches” as of March 31
Ski Conditions and Weather: This winter is one for the record books. In March we received 112 inches of snow, containing 8.01 inches of water. We have received over 35 feet of snow this winter, and winter probably isn't over yet. We reached our maximum snow depth here at the ranger station of 105 inches this week. But don’t let that fool you, higher elevations have much more snow. Our snow survey site at Rafferty Meadows (below Tuolumne Pass) had 145 inches of snow containing 57 inches of water. Only the legendary winter of 1983 dropped more snow (156 inches) at this site, and only the big winter of 1995 dropped more water (58 inches), since record-keeping began at this spot in 1948. With 105 inches of snow, this is the fourth deepest end-of-March snowpack at the Tuolumne Meadows snow survey site since 1930--exceeded only by the winters of 1995 (107”), 1969 (126”), and 1983 (138”). The storms have stopped for now; unsettled weather is expected for the weekend. The snow is settling fast now that the temperatures have warmed up, so expect skiing conditions to change daily.
There is an estimated 15feet of snow at the East Kiosk !
With more unsettled weather due at the weekend and the fact that in 1983 and 1995 [used for comparison above] when the pass didn't open until the very end of June, I am afraid to say that it doesn't look promising for anyone hoping to cross in late May/early June !
A couple more shots of the 2011 Melt
Unfortunately, you'll need to employ some imagination here to see the contrast...
But this first photo was taken at about Noon on the 29th of March, taken from Tunnel View... (look at the relative size of Bridalveil Fall in both photos). Also by the time the second photo was taken, all of the snow had melted from the parking lot and the wall I'm sitting on was dry and people were running along it -- Not the case when it has been icy only 48 hours before!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/ra/ca...l_mar29-11.jpg
(Photo by Megan Edwards -- March 29th ~ Noon)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/ra/ca...l_mar31-11.jpg
(photo by Mark Sedenquist -- March 31st ~ Noon)
Just about every rock surface in the valley was glistening with run-off from the dozens of creeks and streams flowing with snow melt this time of year.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/ra/ca...anee_cliff.jpg
(Photo: Mark Sedenquist, Cascade near Ahwahnee Hotel)
And finally one more of the Upper Yosemite Falls -- Lots of snow melt rushing into space!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/ra/ca...2_Mar31-11.jpg
(photo: Mark Sedenquist, Upper Yosemite Falls -- March 31st, 2011 at about 8:00 am)
April 1 was the first peak flow
Another web cam that is fun to watch is the rise and fall of the Merced River in Yosemite NP. This web cam is updated every five minutes. Also, if you click on the Gauge graph, you can get a sense about what's happening up above the valley since the water in the Merced is fed from those cascades and waterfall.
As recently as last week, the ground in that view had almost a foot of snow on the ground...
Mark
Yeah, it was pretty much ideal
I noticed that flow rates have dropped as the freeze sets in... Pretty hairy weather, indeed!
