Tioga Pass Prognosticator #17

Tioga Pass Prognosticator #17
Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. For all of those folks who think that Tioga Pass is not a big deal... one of our long-time roadtripper colleagues remembers driving it in the 1930's when it was a single lane, dirt track, with no guardrails and drop-offs on both sides of the road.... This year, finds California in the midst of one of the worst droughts on record -- and we suspect it was more about a lack of funding that led to the winter closure of this memorable pass than snow accumulation on the road. Clearly, climate change appears to be affecting the Tioga Pass Prognostication "game." There was no official winner of the Chief Prognosticator (TPP) for the Winter Closing, but Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), was awarded the Winter dcTPP (darn-close prognosticator). There have only been four other TPPs awarded since this featured event began in Spring, 2006. Although one of this elite group, Jessica Beagles-Roos, the current dcTPP, managed to predict the winning date with back-to-back predictions for the Spring opening and Winter closing in 2011.

There are five other dcTPPs... Jessica Beagles-Roos CaNative, Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2013, 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively.

Rainfall & snow predictions will probably be trickier than normal this year. Do you have what it takes to be the new Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator?

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Official Tioga Pass Openings in recent years:
2014: May 2nd (Noon)
2013: May 11th (Noon)
2012: May 7th (Noon)
2011: June 18th (8:45 am)
2010: June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th -

And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD*
Please read entry rules carefully
To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing...
Spring 2012 Opening
Fall 2012 Closing
Spring 2013 Opening!
Winter, 2013 Closing

Past honorees with their POG photos: (Proof of Gas...)

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg
Current reigning TPP is George Carey (glc) shown posing above with this RoadTrip Ride at the local Conoco station.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...os-Kingman.jpg
JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): Winter Closing 2011 Tioga Pass Prognosticator

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg
JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): 2011 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg
BRIAN SHANNON, (Exodus): 2010 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg
PHIL BOARDMAN, (PhilB): 2009 Spring Opening Tioga Pass Prognosticator

And here you can monitor current conditions from 4 Web cams in Yosemite NP:
Yosemite Falls
El Capitan
Half Dome
High Sierra

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

By the way, click here to see what Half Dome looks like when snow is falling....

Happy Predicting!

Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

First Dart in...

Friday, April 4th at 7:45 am

mark

3rd May, 2014 - 10.30am.

Lifey

Now how can I put another in for 14th May. That then covers the May birthdays. The only April birthday has already been taken. :(

May 14th @ 8am

Lifey

You can't actually 'Ping the Poll' a second time, but your second prediction will stand as it's identified in a post, but can you enter a time to your second choice to validate it. [If it's past the editing window, PM me the time and I will enter it.]

Thanks.

Dave.

Birthdays.... yeah, that's a good idea

OK -- then May 12th at 6:45 am

It could well be an early opening this year, unless there is significant snowfall in the coming weeks. The most surprising thing at the moment is the fact that the pass has been closed at all. As stated in the opening post, we think it's more about budget issues then it is weather. At this moment there is a reported snow depth averaging around 10 inches between Tuolumne Meadows and the east entry kiosk and in the coming week, all I see on the forecast is blue sky's.

Take a look at this mornings webcam from Sentinnel Dome, incredible !!

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5510/1...c4f0be43_z.jpg

By comparison, here is a shot from the same camera on January 13 2010.

http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j2...iteJan2011.jpg

Good luck !

Edit : I have just read that 2013 was Yosemite's driest calender year since weather record keeping began in the park. [Possibly 1907 ?]

Dave,

Thanks for posting those two photos. Yep, climate change is a-happening!

Mark

Just remembered another (in-law family) birthday. 27th April - 8.30am.

Lifey

ARG....my date is already taken.

I was wondering when the voting would start. We just spent three days in Yosemite last week. It is unbelievable & scary how little snow there is up in the mountains.

Attachment 3700

Since my date is taken, I'll choose May 10th at 8 am.

Utahtea

If we can pick more than one date, then I'll take my BIL's birthday of May 5 at 8 am

Utahtea,

I was wondering when we would hear from you. I agree, it is hard for me to imagine the Sierras with no snow on them.

How was your trip?

Very scary scenario if we don't get some more rain/snow soon!

Mark

Quite unbelievable conditions in Yosemite with temps in the 60's [F] in the valley and forecast to be in the 50's at 8000ft by Tuesday. Tuolumne meadows has a reported snow depth of just 3 inches. It's melting away ! With a state wide average rainfall of just 1.39 inches in the current 'water year', it put's it below the dry benchmark of 1976-77. The odds of the next 4 months producing enough rain to make an average year is 1 in 200.

The pass is only closed because of a layer of ice that has formed across the road, this is a response from the NP when asked why the pass remains closed by a member of public.

Quote:

---

The Tioga Road is currently closed. Recent surveys of conditions on Tioga Road by road crews found that a significant ice layer has formed on the road this year due to extended cold temperatures following brief warming periods earlier in the season. Tioga Road was designed and is maintained as a summer road, so it lacks guardrails, berms, and other engineered features to prevent sliding vehicles from dropping off many of the embankments. In the fall of 2012, the park pushed the envelope trying to keep the road open and during one small snowstorm had 26 accidents, including multiple rolled vehicles, in a period of less than two hours due to icy conditions.

---

From Sentinel cam today.

Attachment 3702

Dave.

That is an interesting comment from the NP service, about the results of keeping the road open for so long, in 2012. Maybe we won't see that again.

I was listening to some radio station from the US. They were discussing the extended drought in CA. Some were saying, if no significant rain/snow falls before summer, it could well be the driest year for almost 500 years. Apparently they can tell this from the studies of rings in trees, layers in rocks, and other natural features. Great concern was expressed about the availability of fresh produce.

Lifey

There is precipitation in the forecast with 10 inches of snow accumulation possible over 7000feet from Weds night through to Friday.

Dave.

It's about time we had a view like this!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...inel_02_07.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
February 7th @ 9:15 am PST

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...inel_02_08.jpg
(Courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy)
Looking better and better -- taken February 8th at 2:00 pm pst

It's nice to see the first signs of 'the hump' back in the right hand corner of the webcam image, let it snow, let it grow !

Dave.

Still no sign of the hump growing, in fact it appears to be dissapearing.

http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j2...pseb8175c3.jpg

The forecast in the Sierra's is for blue sky's and calm weather for the next week, it makes you wonder if there will be anything left to plow come April when they usually make a start.

Dave.

Whether there's anything left to plow or not won't be the real issue, they have to clear the winter debris from the road - rocks, tree branches, etc.

The snow pack and the plowing is the real issue in my opinion George. Much of the rock and tree fall across the road is caused by avalanche and then buried under the snow which can then can damage machinery if they do not plow with caution. So rock fall and trees slow the plowing operation down, especially when hidden under snow, but otherwise wouldn't have a major impact on clearing the road as they are equipped to deal with it. I would think less snow would equal even less debris than normal as even wind damaged tree's would not necessarily be 'carried' to the road by the snow pack. Clearing the road of debris and repairing damage is the 'norm' but the snow depth is the major factor in how quick they can get it done.

Anyway it was a bit 'tongue in cheek' when I said it, as plowing is more than likely going to have to happen.

Dave.

It looks as though most of you think it is going to be an early opening, but we all know a late storm could make things look very different.

So here are a list of dates that have already been claimed this season so far, although ultimately it's your responsibility to check your predicted date hasn't already been taken. [My get outa jail card. lol ]

April. 4th - 27th - 30th. Taken.

May. 3rd - 5th - 10th - 12th - 14th. Taken.

My first prediction is gonna be April 30th @ Noon.

Dave.

Looks like some significant snow coming later this week!

I'll add April 26 - 11:00 AM - as my vote!

The snow has arrived as George mentioned and it's possible that we might see up to a couple of feet of new snow laid over the next few days. Keeps things interesting !

Dave.

Central Valley folks are relieved, though it is too late for some of the crops. Prices are starting to climb on some produce in this state because crops have already been lost to drought. Hopefully things will improve!

The southern portion of the state could get hit with some bad t-storms (unusual around here!) as well as TORNADOES (practically unheard of here). But we need the rain, too, so we're not doing too much whining.


Donna

The HUMP is Back!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_03_02_14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
(photo: March 2nd at 12:30 pm PST)

I'd like to see the hump at least 10x this size, but this is better than nothing. However, as a side bet, I think 90% of this snow will be melted by next Sunday...

Mark

I sure hope a LOT of snow falls in the next fortnight. Not just for the sake of the locals, but in a bit of a selfish way. I still recall the spectacular view of the snow covered Sierras as we approached LAX in 2012. Looks like this year the view will be without snow. :(

Lifey

I think you might get your snow topped Sierra view if you can convince the pilot to take the same route, even if it's a bit patchy. It looks as though there will be another 4 or 5 inches of new snow tonight through Thursday.

The late February storm helped to ease the drought conditions a little, but the Locals will still be looking for a lot of percipitation through March to help out the situation.

The latest report for Mono Lake.

Quote:

---

The severe drought conditions that persisted through most of January eased a little more in February. At the end of January, Lee Vining precipitation for the water year was 37% of average. But February precipitation was 76% of average in Lee Vining (and 70% of average at Cain Ranch), which raised the water year total-to-date since October 1st to 47% of average.

---

Dave.

I regret I won't be able to duplicate the same time photo capture as last year -- but even allowing for the different time of day -- these two photos show a dramatic difference in snow coverage for March 24th.

March 24th 2013:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_03-24-13.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

March 24th 2014:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-24-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

As long as I am looking at the log files.... I thought I would add a two more taken on various days in March over the last couple of years. (I thought I had a representative sample for each year -- but I guess not). Notice the dramatic shrinkage of the HUMP in 2014!

March 14, 2009 -- Slightly different camera position
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-14-09.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

March 18, 2012:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...inel-03-18.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

March 24th 2013:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_03-24-13.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

March 24th 2014:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-24-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

March 26th 2014
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-26-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

March 27th, 2014 The HUMP is back?
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-27-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

March 29th, 2014 Fast. fast, melt
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-29-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

March 30th, 2014. Another nice dusting on top!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-30-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

It looks as though we could see up to 12 inches of fresh snow on the high ground during this coming week. There is a winter weather advisory in place for areas over 6000ft in elevation for a combination of snow and strong winds.

Dave.

March 27th, 2014 The HUMP is back?
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-27-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

March 27th at ~10:30 am PDT

That looks a little more like it and there is more expected through the weekend and possibly into the start of next week. It's arrived with less than 3 weeks remaining to when the plowing effort usually begins.

Dave.

March 29th, 2014 Fast. fast, melt
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-29-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

Scroll up for some contrasting views!

More resource for the waterfalls to come!

March 30th, 2014. Another nice dusting on top!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-03-30-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

Gentle now... but should be rocking in a day or so...
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...s_03-30-14.jpg
Captured March 30th at 1:50 pm PDT
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

And this is very cool.... A brand new streaming capture of this waterfall!


EDIT: I just checked the video feed on the waterfall -- about twice as much water as earlier today!

And this is the live recording at the Happy Isle Bridge on the Merced River in Yosemite Valley.

Another winter weather advisory is in place with more snowfall expected.

Quote:

---

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FEET.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: CAMP NELSON...GIANT FOREST...JOHNSONDALE...
LODGEPOLE...SHAVER LAKE...YOSEMITE VALLEY

---

It looks as though it could continue to be an unsettled week ahead .

Dave.

Californians should be pleased with a little more water coming their way..... or is it?

Lifey

Winter Wonderland -- Snow in Yosemite Valley: Not an April Fool's joke:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...s_04-01-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy
Captured April 1st at ~ 10:50 am PDT

...And the HUMP reforms for a day or two...
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-04-01-14.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy

Yes, down here in San Diego County, we have been rained upon today. More is expected tomorrow, too. The only thing I don't like about rain in SoCal is that many do NOT know how to drive in rain!!!! (If it ever snowed here, I would hole up at home or at work, and refuse to get on the roads until they were "just wet". That actually happened back on Valentines Day, 2008. I waited at work until the snow melted!)



Donna