Tioga Pass Prognosticator #14
Advent of the Winter RoadTrip Season in the West
This is our fourteenth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. (I know it just opened for the 2012 summer travel season, and the road isn't even dry from the snow melt, but time marches on...)
The current Reigning Chief Prognosticator, Jessica Beagles-Roos known on the Great American RoadTrip Forum as CAnative earned her title with back-to-back winning predictions for the opening date of the Spring 2011 season, (June 18th at 10:00 am) and the Winter 2011 closing date (January 17th, 2012 at 3:00 pm). She nearly pulled off a three-peat by correctly guessing (off-line) that the opening date would be May 7th, 2012. Unfortunately she didn't make that guess official and so her record-breaking three-peat performance came to an end.
George Carey, (glc on the Forum) is the current acting dcTPP (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator). George joins four other dcTPPs...Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte (Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively.
So, now it's a clean slate. Do you have what it takes to be the new Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator?
************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...
So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007
Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th
2001: November 11th
And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.
The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD
* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.
When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page
Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010
Winter Closing, 2010
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing...
Spring 2012 Opening
And here you can monitor current conditions from some Web cams in Yosemite NP.
And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).
Happy Predicting!
Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff
Sheriff Dave will need to make a ruling
We'll need a ruling from Sheriff Dave, but technically Jessica could still achieve a three-peat status.... Since there was no TPP for the Spring, 2012 opening, and if CAnative were to snag the TPP for the Autumn closing... she could in theory leapfrog the Spring, 2012 contest and RETAIN her Chief TPP status... But the odds in achieving this are, as we all know, frightfully low!
Mark
This is how you can ping the poll more than once...
To take advantage of multiple predictions on the poll, you need do it the first time you "vote" so, in this case I am choosing October 29th at 9:00 am and December 7th at 5:00 pm
It does feel unseasonable chilly
What a truly odd year!
Mark
Ever seen this dry before?
I guess it happens every year, but somehow I've never noticed it before. I must not have looked at the Yosemite Falls web cam in September before. But if you look now, (and it's still daylight) you'll see that the falls are dry! It's hard for me to imagine this is the same spot as the place where the roar of the falls can be heard for miles!
Mark
Nice long fall in Yosemite looms
It's going to be darn hot in southern Cali too -- temps in the 110's .
Megan and I are headed to Tucson next week, much more temperate there....
So, looking good for a very long fall in the Yosemite area!
Mark
Not a lot of accumulation.
I think it's a bit early to be thinking of a permanent closure, but who knows ? With snowfall of just 3-7 inches predicted and then clearing up again Thursday we should see it open again, although the sub zero temps may have a say in that.
Tioga pass status. 'Call'.
It looks as though a settled few days are ahead for Yosemite, yet on the Yosemite site they are currently advising you call ahead with regards to the status of Tioga pass.
Dave.
Maybe an early closure is possible afterall...
Snowing right now in Yosemite. A large, mass of artic air is sweeping into California this weekend. Low temps and ice....
Mark
Not so sure about 'summer'.
The sun is out, but with overnight lows not getting above 20f and the possibility of snow showers forecast for Thursday through Monday who knows ? The road status is 'Closed' at this moment [probably due to ice] and where I am reasonably confident it will open again before the weekend, [hence the December guess] we all know that unsettled weather followed by a hefty storm and suddenly it's 'Game over'.
Don't leave it too long folks !!
