Tioga Pass Prognosticator #8
Tioga Pass Prognosticator #8
This is our eighth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. (I know it just opened for the 2009 travel season, and the road isn't even dry from the snow melt, but time marches on...)
******December 2, 2009 Update: dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
Official NPS Closing Date: November 12, 2009
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue) Winter 2009 Click here for the declaration of dcTPP winner!
Last year, this famous road "officially" closed on October 30th. It actually wasn't that cut-and-dried. The Yosemite National Park site listed the road open until mid-December, but fall and winter storms had effectively closed the road in October. And so, obtaining an "official closing date" could be another long process this year. Last year, also marked the first "awarding" of the Tioga Pass Prognosticator Closing prize which went to Forum Member, weirj, who chose "On or before Halloween (Oct. 31st)". This year, the rules have been tightened a bit (same as the Opening Prognosticator 2009 rules).
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009 (Click here for news about this achievement)
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue) Winter 2009 Click here for the declaration of dcTPP winner!
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte) Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless) Spring 2007
Official Tioga Pass closings in recent years:
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th
2001: November 11th
And here are the Yosemite National Park Official Closing and Opening Dates for last several years!
The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD
* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road closing date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* As per revision on 11/08/09, a single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.
*Moderator Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave) is the wrangler on this contest and he can answer any further questions you might have about this communal predictive effort.
And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).
Previous RTA Prognosticator Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Good luck! ...And may the best guesser prevail!
7-10-09: I forgot to add the photo of the kiosk here -- Look how beautiful it is there today!
http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/tioga/tioga/tioga_currenta.jpg
RTA Editorial Team
OK, if we're doing significant events...
November 11.
My daughter's 3rd anniversary and the 3rd anniversary of Cal's 24-20 loss the the Wildcats in 2006, which ended up knocking them out of the Rose Bowl (again; finished tied w/ USC but lost on head-to-head).
Figure around 9pm... when my daughter walked down the aisle, and the Bears walked back to the locker room.
I got a book, I think you'd enjoy
Not to say that you would do this, of course, but your post above made me think of the first line in this review....
Speaking of which, I just got my latest "The North Tunnel Echo" in the mail today....
Mark
Getting back to the issue at hand
Since one can name more than one date (within reason)
November 19th at 8:00 am
Mark
So... You missed that memo?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Southwest Dave
[As the official wrangler [apparently ;-)] how about limiting it to two guesses max and then possibly after the 1st Oct each member could then have one more on any available dates remaining. This would save anyone abusing the "within reason" part and possibly all the [what would be considered] prime dates being taken by a few members. I know it's a bit of fun but a little clarity might be better.]
Seems like a good policy adjustment to me -- but I'm not sure I understand would you just wrote...
Mark
I watched the cells as they rolled onshore
That was a very dramatic storm system that rolled through the Golden Gate this morning.. Yeah, this could be THE storm that closes the road for 2009! I was watching the radar returns -- Amazing storm!
Here's the 3:20 PM alert for the High Sierra today:
The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a Winter Storm
Warning for heavy snow above 7500 feet... which is in effect until
8 am PDT Wednesday.
* Timing: the heaviest snows will occur from this afternoon
through the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday.
* Total snow accumulations: 1 to 2 feet of snow is likely between
7500 and 9000 feet... with accumulations up to 4 feet expected in
the higher elevations.
* Winds: wind gusts near the Sierra crest of up to 140 mph are
expected... with gusts to 65 mph in the lower elevations. This
may lead to localized blizzard conditions and near-zero
visibility.
* Snow levels: snow levels between 7500 and 8000 feet are expected
with some fluctuation possible tonight.
....140 mph on the crest.... Yikes!
Mark
2 Attachment(s)
Been watching a webcam...
UCSD runs a webcam at the Tioga Pass entrance station; most recent image.
Seems to update once every hour or two.
I snagged a couple for comparison, three hours apart (11:55 and 14:55).
Mount Diablo here in the East Bay has seen gusts over 70mph, and sustained winds in the 40-50mph range (a bit shy of 4000').
Yeah and if you look at the first page of this thread, you'll see that we've been using that web cam since the very beginning of this contest feature....
I would say that your chances are remote
Four+ feet of snow is a lot of snow and I would think that your chances of having the Tioga Pass route re-opened by next Monday are very, very remote.
Mark
As they say in the financial world...
Past performance is no indication of future results.
That said, this website lists the opening and closing dates for Tioga Pass back to 1933.
Bringing the photo forward again
http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/tioga/tioga/tioga_currenta.jpg
Wow, look how much has melted since last week!
if you look closely you can see the ranger in the kiosk!
Mark
Edit: 10/26/09: wow, the snow is continuing to melt! -- I guess they knew what they were doing when they didn't officially close the road in those earlier snow storms.
