Tioga Pass Prognosticator #4

This is our fourth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a tradition rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum.

12/12/07: The official date was just announced:
The Official Closing Date for 2007 was December 6th!

Last year, this famous road closed on November 26, 2006*. In 2005, it closed on the 25th of November….hmmm, maybe there is a trend here somewhere. Here are the official opening and closing dates from 1980 to the present. Actually, in April, 2007, the NPS website showed that the official closing date was November 27th (even though I know the gates were shut on the 26th and so RTA Forum Member memetu, was technically correct -- memetu predicted the 27th – (and there is no statute of limitation on the 2006 award…should anyone know how to reach memetu.)

For the Spring opening, RTA Forum member, Kinless used his highly honed prognosticator skills and predicted that Tioga Pass would open for the summer, 2007 road trip season, on May 10th. Unfortunately, it actually opened at Noon on May 11th, so for the want of this 24 hour period, he missed the grand prize but earned the equally coveted title of dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) More about the Spring opening poll can be found by clicking here.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD To win this prize, the date must be posted on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official closing date.

Good luck!

RTA Editorial Team

Current Record Holders:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009 (Click here for news about this achievement)
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue) Winter 2009 Click here for the declaration of dcTPP winner!
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte) Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless) Spring 2007

So, I am thinking that the ultimate summer road trip road, will be open until December 2nd.

Mark

I predict the closure this year for November 15th.

Of course, the last totally accurate weather forecast was when God told Noah there was 100% chance of rain...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Arizona Bob

I predict the closure this year for November 15th.

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OK Dokey, -- What scientific calculation was this?

Mark

It was the science of the carefully calculated guess!

My educated guess technique could stand some improvement -- I have been wrong each time....

Seems a little weird to predicting the closure and the pavement is not yet dry on the summer opening... but time marches on!

Mark

Actually I guessed May 10th for the 2007 TPP opening but either way it was one day off. Regardless I'm happy to receive a runner-up prize.

Mark, I had a question. Is there a "cut off" date where no more guesses are allowed? I think the only reason I guessed accurately for the opening is because I knew there wasn't much snowfall for the season and used that to my advantage.

Obviously it's a little harder to strategize when the first big snowfall will be, but regardless, will (or should) there be a deadline?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kinless

I had a question. Is there a "cut off" date where no more guesses are allowed? I think the only reason I guessed accurately for the opening is because I knew there wasn't much snowfall for the season and used that to my advantage.

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Yes, it has been in the previous polls -- but I forgot to put it in this time (I have since corrected it -- thanks). To win this prize, the date must be posted on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official closing date.

Mark

I based the my guess at the opening on my own birthday. I was wrong. But, if I'd picked my dads birthday, I'd have been spot on! So... I'm going to bet on another birthday... my mums. November 21.

If Craig's going with his Mum's Birthday - I'll go with my Momma's as well. I'm guessing December 3rd.

Laura

I'll go with my husbands' birthday, November 28.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lnewman

I'll go with my husbands' birthday, November 28.

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It's funny, I just told this new member that this was not likely -- maybe you ought to work together?

Mark

Well, Arizona Bob took my sister's birthday (Nov. 15) so I guess I'll have to go with my mom's birthday and my birthday (Oct. 30 and Oct. 31). I wanna create that snowpack for the reservoirs that Mark is worried about. :-)

I am not going with birthdays!(Well, none of my family has a birthday that time).
I know Summer is strong. I am picking Dec 1st.
As much as I would want to win, I'd actually be happy if winter came soon.
Its just too hot!

I just responded to a new member who was hoping to use this pass the first week of December -- it may still be open.... Time will see. What is your latest prediction?

Mark

I just looked at the web cam at the entry kiosk for Yosemite on the Tioga Pass road -- there is snow on the ground! Early!

Today's look at that link (above) it melted pretty fast....

Mark

November 4. My birthday seems a good time to close a pass.

I better get in on this before it gets to be too late.

I'll go with Monday, November 12th as my official guess.

That feels a bit early to me, but road closures are more unpredictable than road openings.

(I'd say the 10th again but that falls on a Saturday and I'd think weekends are less likely for closures. But then again, Mother Nature can work weekends, unlike snow-removal crews.)

I will say it will close November 24th (my birthday), and reopen on April 20th

(crossing finger, because I actually have noooo clue :) )

My pick is November 27th. After doing much scientific research on the matter, and since I personally know of no one born on November 27th, and quick search on the web I discovered that the great Steve Urkel of Family Matters was born on this day. So that is my pick. November 27th.

Cause I'm saying it closes the night of Thanksgiving, November 22

I gave up a couple of years ago of daring to expect I would ever get this right --but you may well be correct this year!

I am still thinking it will be later -- maybe even mid-December....

Mark

Is that snow I'm seeing on the ground from the link that you posted earlier Mark? If the weather is as crazy there as it is here it very well could be. We went from having temperatures 15-20 degress above normal last week to temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal this week. I literally had to switch from fans and some air conditioner to some heat in my house overnight.

Laura

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lhuff

Is that snow I'm seeing on the ground from the link

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Three snowstorms followed by hot, dry winds -- not much snow up there right now. Temps are dropping way below freezing though at night.

Actually that earlier link is a daily photograph -- so that little bit of snow is current as of this morning!

And now there is a lot of snow (11/11/07) take a look at that link above today!

Mark

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Midwest Michael

Cause I'm saying it closes the night of Thanksgiving, November 22

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I see you are about as accurate as I am this year!

Still open -- check out today's photo! Dry roads, blue skies and just a touch of snow in the fields!

Mark

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Editor

I see you are about as accurate as I am this year!

Still open -- check out today's photo! Dry roads, blue skies and just a touch of snow in the fields!

Mark

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Sheesh, it's not just Tioga: North Cascades Highway over Washington and Rainy Passes is still open, and it's almost December. It's not abnormally late, normal closure is 11-01 to 12-15-ish but it's still interesting. '06 and '05, they closed it down earlier in November.

-Brad

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Arizona Brad

It's not abnormally late, normal closure is 11-01 to 12-15-ish but it's still interesting. '06 and '05, they closed it down earlier in November.

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The Pacific North West had a biblical deluge of rain earlier in the year and so I am surprised the latest cold snap didn't close those passes -- I bet it happens soon.

Mark

If weather.com is right, Yosemite is expecting snow on 4th & 5th. Hopefully, it does not warm up too much after that. If so, Tioga may close on those days.

cool

Today, a new photo appeared in this link...And the road is still open... It is starting to look like no one will win this contest again this year.... I just looked at the radar signature for the area -- there is a massive amount of unsettled, cold air sweeping into the region -- the (open) road may not last much longer....

Mark

The Wenatchee World has reported that Washington DOT officials closed North Cascades Highway on Tuesday. Perhaps Tioga isn't too far behind?

Please can I change my vote to 'after 7th December'? :)

I have a feeling that Tioga's days are numbered. We're supposed to get a massive storm coming through here (South Cali) tomorrow and I see that the Sierras are gonna be whiplashed with the same. I say the next 48 hours will bring a change in the status.

(Unfortunately that prediction is a little late as far as the contest is concerned. Drat.)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by UKCraig

Please can I change my vote to 'after 7th December'? :)

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Craig, sure -- I will even add some more dates in the poll -- but you gotta choose one date! & post it here to be "official" (and it has to meet this test: So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD To win this prize, the date must be posted on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official closing date....)

Check out today's photo! There is a pile of snow covering the lens protector!

Just looked at the radar signatures (11:00 pm pst) and it is snowing hard in this area -- I bet closure will be coming quickly.

Mark

Both Tioga and Glacier Point are closed due to snow -- but I am not sure that this is the "official" closing date.... But it would be a memorable date -- Dec. 7th, 2007

I would be surprised if they re-open the road after last night's snow storm. Did anyone have December 6th or 7th for our poll?

Mark

I think Tioga Pass is "done for this year" but I haven't heard what the official closure date was -- I am thinking it was 12-07-07.

The Official Closing Date for 2007 was December 6th!

Mark