Tioga Pass Prognosticator #3

This is our third attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West.

Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west.

In 2006:
Tioga Pass officially opened on June 17th
Winter Closure occurred Thanksgiving Weekend in November There was a snowstorm on the 26th which closed the road for the 2006 season.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD

Good luck!

Current Records:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009 (Click here for news about this achievement)
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue) Winter 2009 Click here for the declaration of dcTPP winner!
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte) Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless) Spring 2007

My ever-faithful dart has struck the board on June 18th, 2007.

Mark

I'm thinking Spring doesn't arrive on Tioga until several days into Summer.

Put me down for June 28th.

Well my birthday is June 14, so I'd guess then :)

My guess will be June 12th. It seems like a good, even number.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Editor

if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride.

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I'm disqualifying myself from entering, since I'd feel too guilty winning a tank of fuel at U.K. prices!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dj toast

I'm disqualifying myself from entering, since I'd feel too guilty winning a tank of fuel at U.K. prices!

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Interesting -- I never considered that element. OK -- if you choose the correct day -- I will still stick with the intent of the challenge -- No matter where in the world and what the cost of petrol is there.... (subject to the clarification dated 12/18/06: total value not to exceed $75.00 USD)

Mark

Okay then, as we have approval from the top for UK entries, a bit of research reveals that the average opening date has got earlier and earlier in the 73 years since 1933. In the 1930s it was June 19, in the 1990s it was June 4 and for the current decade it's May 28.

So, with a keen eye on Mark's $75 (just over half a tank in the UK I'm afraid), that's the date I'm going for: May 28th.

The same source reveals that the earliest opening was April 8 and the latest July 8.

I'd guess my birthday as well....May 20.

June 15, 11:55 pm, no doubt about it : )

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bigfoot

June 15, 11:55 pm, no doubt about it : )

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That is mighty specific -- I doubt our friends at CalTrans will be able to narrow it down that close.... Actually, the snow pack in the Sierras is alarmingly light this year -- it could be the earliest opening on record....

Thanks for your prediction!

Mark

This has been an exceptionally low season for snow & rain in CA, but maybe its just a late season. Usually open by memorial day(on an average), this time I predict it June 13th. My first choice though was 12th. Already picked. Never mind!

I have no idea what we're really talking about but I'll put the sucker bet on May 15th. That's just because it's been in the 70s and some 80s around here this week. So I'll guess that they'll have some warm spells too and melt the snow faster.

May 29th, if we are going with birthdays...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cool

This has been an exceptionally low season for snow & rain in CA,

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Cool, I think the snow gods heard you! It is snowing hard in the Sierras today! So, who know when the pass will open now?

Mark

June 4th!!

It snowed it bay area too, Mark! Mt.Diablo & even the local mountains received some snow.
Snow is much needed here in CA. It is raining a lot in bay area too!
Guess we got the Seattle fever :-)

cool

We are in the US early May and are going to drive from Las Vegas to San Francisco, I doubt tht the pass will be open, but being the optimistic type of guy that I am, I'm going to predict it will open on the 5th May. If it does I will be one of the first to use it in 2007

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Originally Posted by kalipol

I'm going to predict it will open on the 5th May. If it does I will be one of the first to use it in 2007

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I was one of the first over Sonora Pass last May, so maybe you will have Tioga's number this year1

Mark

If it's not too late to guess, I'm going to say May 10th.

I'm going on a Utah roadtrip in mid-May 2007 and on the way back I plan on going over this pass, so it's more of a hopeful wish than a guess.

Still, snowfall in that area hasn't been this sparse since 1988, and they opened the road April 29th back then, so I'll give them a few more days leeway this year.

May 24, 8 a.m.

Eight am huh?

That would be a first -- It is usually ~ 10:30 ish.

Mark

A week from today, the plowing crew goes back to work on the Tioga Pass Road. We will provide updates as they make their way over the road. Here is the latest info about this annual effort.

Mark

Barring any more snow events in April and May, the road could have a very early opening date.

"Unofficial Information": The road has already been plowed from the gate closure at Lee Vining to Tioga Pass (from the east). The road is still closed, but best estimates are that they will open the eastern gate on or before April 27th.

Snowpack at the Tuolumne Meadows ranger station is already gone. In fact, all of the road through the meadows has already melted.

[Editor Update: My information (above) was current on the 16th, but the high Sierras received over 12" of snow in the last few days and so know, there could be snow back on the road here...]

Plowing is underway from Crane Flat (heading east) -- no local news yet about the conditions the crew is encountering. Official updates will be linked from my previous post....

Mark

Shocking! Let's pray for more snow, else my prediction is gonna look silly :)

The weather bureau is reporting an 80% chance of snow in Yosemite this Friday. Probably not a lot (1/2-1" of rain down here), but something.....

Larrison,

Thanks for that! We need all of the extra moisture we can get -- LA has been bone dry for much of this year.

Mark

Come on baby, snow... snow!! :)

Sierras are receiving snow here & there(not enough). I think that the Tioga pass opening date would create a record this year! Half dome cables might be up early too!

Update: 70% chance it might snow on Sunday.
cool

From the NPS, posted on 04/24/07:
Tioga Road progress for April 24, 2007
Starting Location: 41.6 miles from Crane Flat gate
Ending Location: 43.9 miles miles from Crane Flat gate (Tuolumne Meadows area)
Distance plowed today: 2.3 miles
Snow depth: 0 - 2 feet

Glacier Point Road progress
Plows have made it to the Sentinel Dome/Taft Point trailhead, however extremely icy conditions will prevent further progress until weather improves.

As of the 25th, it looks like they finally made it to "the Pass." We'll see if they open the far east gate today as they once stated on the site (although now I can't find where they posted that information; may have deleted it).

Here is the 04/25/07 update.

The opening date might actually be within a week of the day I guessed (May 10).

I have high confidence that this pass will be free and clear when we reach it on May 22nd during our roadtrip. It will sure make life easier.

Last week, the unofficial word was that they would open the eastern gate today, (04/27) but I haven't heard about it yet today.

It is a little scary to me that they were able to reach the pass on the 25th (bodes ill for the snowpack this year!)

You might well be correct about the 10th!

Mark

I still haven't heard about the eastern gate opening.

http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/images/0425.jpg
(photo credit = Yosemite NP)
(above) is what it looked like when the plows reached the Tuolumne Meadows

There is now a one-lane road all the way across Tioga Pass -- but there is still much work to be done to get the highway opened.
http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/images/tioga1.jpg
(NPS photo credit -- Taken 04/30/07 near Raisin Creek
As you can see -- this highway is still a ways from being ready to go

Mark

Well, Tioga is still being worked on, but they opened up Glacier Point Road May 4th at 12:00 PST, which would be riiiiiiiiiiight abouuuuut...

...now.

(UPDATE: They delayed the opening by a full day because a few inches of snow fell. May 5th it is now.)

Good. I was hoping that would open up before we got there. I'd like to go up to Glacier Point when we reach Yosemite.

Come on, Tioga. Just hold until next Thursday! :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kinless

Well, Tioga is still being worked on, but they opened up Glacier Point Road May 4th at 12:00 PST, which would be riiiiiiiiiiight abouuuuut...
...now.

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It so gorgeous when it first opens -- I hope you get some great photos!

Mark

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Editor

It so gorgeous when it first opens -- I hope you get some great photos!

Mark

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Is it open already?

cool

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cool

Is it open already?

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GRAHHHHH!!!!!!

They're reporting May 11th at high noon for Tioga to open.

I came SO close to winning! Doh!

Tioga Pass officially opened today, May 11th, at noon. While not a record, it sure comes early this year.

May the Summer driving season begin.

(I'll be heading over the pass on May 22nd and getting lots of pics.)

Kinless,

I agree.... "May the Summer driving season begin"

It seems to us that since you were the closest -- that there should be some reward.... So, send me your contact information and the RTA Editorial Group will award you with an $35.00 USD prize and the distinction of being an official dcTPP... Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator

Congratulations!

Mark

Mark, I apologize for bumping up this old thread, but I just wanted to say that I was on a roadtrip from San Diego to Chicago in spring '07. I wanted to go over Tioga on May 4th - so close yet so far! If I had just waited ONE week!