Competition time. Tioga Pass Prognosticator 38: Winter closing 2024

[Southwest Dave]

How would you like to win a free tank of gas for your Road Trip ride!?

This is our 38th attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favourite mountain crossings in the American West, the Tioga pass. The Tioga pass (CA 120) crosses the rugged Sierra Nevada mountains through Yosemite NP, and one thing we know for sure is, each year the Fall/Winter snows will descend upon the mountains and close access to ROAD TRIPPERS for many months. This is your chance to use your predictive skills and win that tank of gas, we don't care how you arrive at the date, you can throw a dart at the calendar, gaze at a crystal ball or study weather patterns and previous years results, or what ever else it takes ! So when do you think Tioga pass will close for the winter of 2024? All you gotta do is follow a few simple rules laid out below and your next road trip could start out with some free miles !

The Competition

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

The Rules

****Please read rules carefully***

To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" and time must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*If you manage to identify the correct closing time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

***When you have identified your prediction in your post you must "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection.)***

Look at these contrasting images from the High Sierra webcam!

With the snows, the 'Hump' forms and partially blocks the view.


Below is some information from previous years that may help in making your choice.

Official closing dates in recent years.
2023 November 15th
2022 October 31st
2021 October 21st (Very early closure)
2020 November 5th
2019.November 19th
2018:November 20th
2017: November 14th
2016: November 16th
2015: November 1st
2014: November 13th
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th

..and the previous 10 Winter closing Competitions.
2023 Winter closing
2022 Winter closing
2021 Winter closing
2020 Winter closing. Cancelled due to Pandemic
2019 Winter closing
2018 Winter closing
2017 Winter closing
2016 Winter closing
2015 Winter closing
2014 Winter closing

A link to the previous opening and closing dates from Yosemite NPS.

And a look at what's happening in Yosemite right now from the High Sierra webcam.

Previous Tioga Pass Prognosticator Champs!

Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2018. Reigning Champ!
......................(tantrum), Spring 2015 Opening (never identified or claimed the prize)
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
..................... (weirj), Winter 2008 (never identified or claimed the prize)

..and the DcTPP's (Darn Close Tioga Pass Prognosticators)
************** Tony (tseeb) 2024 Spring opening
************** liam2k04 2023 Winter closing
************** Mark Sedenquist 2023 Spring opening
************** Southwest Dave 2022 Spring opening
************** tseeb. 2020 Spring opening
**************anuj1985. winter closing 2019
**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Here are some POF (Proof of fuel) photo's from previous happy winners!

Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018 and still reigning Champ!


George Carey (glc) Spring opening 2014


George again, Spring 2013 (Back to back wins)


CANative Spring 2011.


Brian Shannon. (Exodus) Spring, 2010.


Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009


So, there you go folks. Happy Prognosticating and keep on Road Tripping!

Dave

[Mark Sedenquist]

November 26th at 5pm (PST) is my first dart thrown in.

Dave: Thanks for getting this page set-up again!

Mark

[UKCraig]

5pm on 21st November

[Mark Sedenquist]

Just some news.

My brother, Dan, drove over Tioga Pass yesterday in a full-on snow storm. And there is considerable snow on the upper slopes of Yosemite today.

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

I saw the weather forecast earlier, and now there are warnings in place and the Tioga pass is temporarily closed. Unfortunately the High Sierra webcam isn't active at the moment and has been showing the same image over the last few days.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
inches.

* WHERE...Elevations above 9,000 feet. Includes Yosemite NP
outside of the valley, Upper San Joaquin River, Kings Canyon
NP, and Sequoia NP.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to snow covered
roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Stronger showers and thunderstorms could
briefly lower snow levels to around 8,000 to 8,500 feet at
times.

Dave

[Mark Sedenquist]

Just had to share this photo. This is the top of the TrailFest racing course on Mammoth Mountain. TrailFest is an annual running race. I am sure that there has been snow on the top of the mountain this early before -- but usually everyone on the summit is in shorts and tee shirts for this race.


Mammoth Mountain -- top of the TrailFest course, September 20th at 10:18 am PDT

[AZBuck]

12:01 AM, 10/22, 2024

However, the Planetary Scientist in me wants to take a much later date due to Global Warming.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Buck,

Could you please provide a bit more background on how this date was determined?

Edit: So, I didn't realize that Buck's date was a prognostication date -- I thought he was referring to a planetary scale date and I was clearly lost-in-translation. There is no reason to provide an explanation. We are ALL true PROGNOSTICATORS.

[Southwest Dave]

12:01 AM, 10/22, 2024

However, the Planetary Scientist in me wants to take a much later date due to Global Warming.

Buck.
Don't forget to 'Ping the poll' above in the date range that covers your prediction.

Dave

[Southwest Dave]

The weather looks fantastic in Yosemite right now, with clear blue sky's and temperatures in the valley in the 80's, possibly rising to 90F by Tuesday. Even up on the Tioga pass the temps are hitting the mid 70's!

I am going for November 15th at 5pm.

Dave