Tioga Pass Competition time once more ! The 35th Tppc !

[Southwest Dave]

Here we are again for the Tioga pass Prognosticator, Spring opening 2023. This is RTA's 35th competition in trying to predict future conditions of this iconic pass that crosses the Sierra Nevada in Yosemite NP. It is usually closed sometime in November due to snow depth and will not open again until late Spring or early summer after the big thaw and the snow and debris has been cleared by the road crews. This is a mammoth task and can take weeks to achieve, while all the time there is a risk of late storms and avalanches delaying the opening. Quite the challenge !

Do you want to win a tank of gas for your road trip ride ??

All you have to do is follow the rules posted further down the page to predict the correct opening date for Spring 2023 and a tank of gas is yours! It doesn't matter how you get there, you can study data, use a crystal ball or throw a dart at a calender, you just need the correct date. This year has started out with an abundance of snow and a recent snow survey showed there to be an average of 122 inches of snow in the Tuolumne meadows area of the park. That could take some clearing !

This image was captured on February 7 2023 from the High Sierra webcam.



This is a tricky one to predict with our last Spring opening Champion being tantrum way back in 2015 although Mark Sedenquist is our reigning Tppc (Tioga pass prognosticator champion) when he correctly predicted the winter closing in 2018. Last Spring I missed out on the crown by just 42 hours and got the 'Runner up' title of DCTPP. (Darn close Tioga pass pronosticator) Now it's time to see if we can find a new champ who can correctly predict when the pass will open for the Spring of 2023 so here's what you need to know.

The competition.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

The rules.

*** To win this prize, your date must be identified in a post on this thread more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date.
** ** Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry). *And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
*** Once you have selected your date you must select the relevant date range in the Poll above.
*** A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member so make sure your date hasn't been claimed already. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
***The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.***

Here is a list of previous Champs !
Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018 (Still holder of the crown !!)
*** tantrum, Spring 2015 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013
Opening Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008 -

And previous DCTPP (Darn close Tioga pass prognosticators)
***************Southwest Dave Winter closing 2022
***************Utahtea Spring 2020
***************anuj1985 Winter 2019
**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Below are some Historic dates to help get you started.
2022 May 27th 9am
2021 May 27th (9am)
2020 June 15th (9am)
2019 June 21st (9am) *** This was a time restricted opening to traffic and fully opened on July 1st 8am)***
2018 May 21st (9am)
2017 June 29th, (8am)
2016 May 18th (Noon)
2015 May 4th (8 am)
2014 May 2nd (Noon)
2013 May 11th (Noon)
2012 May 7th (Noon)
2011 June 18th (8:45 am)
2010 June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

Here are some link to Tioga pass conditions and previous contests.

The official Tioga pass Opening and closure page fromYosemite NP

See whats going on right now from the High Sierra webcam

Below are links to previous Tioga pass Spring opening contests.

Spring 2022
Spring 2021
Spring 2020
Spring 2019
Spring 2018
Spring 2017
Spring 2016
Spring 2015
Spring 2014
Spring 2013
Spring 2012

And some photos of our lucky winners filling up their Roadtrip rides !

Mark Sedenquist. Winter closing 2018 and still the reigning Champ ! (Time to take his throne folks!! )


George Carey (glc) Spring opening 2014


George again Spring 2013. (Back to back wins)


CANative Spring 2011.


Brian Shannon. (Exodus) Spring, 2010.


Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009

I hope you all have a great Roadtripping year and good luck with those predictions !!

Dave.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Excellent work Sheriff Dave!

I am voting for my birthday, May 12th at 8 am.

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

A storm is sweeping across the Sierra's Tuesday night through Friday bringing with it some significant snowfall, particularly to the high ground.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. 1 to 2 feet of snow accumulation
from 1,000 to 3,000 feet, 2 to 3 feet of snow accumulation from
3,000 to 5,000 feet, and 3 to 4 feet of snow accumulation above
5,000 feet. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...The Sierra Nevada and the Foothills.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Very
strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. The cold wind
chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed
skin in as little as 30 minutes.

The High Sierra webcam has been out of action the last few days so I hope they manage to get it online again soon!

Dave

[Southwest Dave]

I haven't seen a storm warning quite like this before, (or not that I can recall) they have shut the whole of Yosemite NP park down to visitors and all roads into the park are closed ! With blizzard conditions combining winds of up to 75mph and possibly 6 feet of new snow over the next few days, the advice is simple. Don't travel !

Blizzard Warning
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM PST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow. Additional snow
accumulations of 1 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60
mph. For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions expected.
Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 feet. Winds gusting as high
as 75 mph.

* WHERE...The Sierra Nevada.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 10 AM PST this
morning. For the Blizzard Warning, from 10 AM this morning to
4 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
snow will cause white-out conditions at times. Downed trees and
tree limbs with power outages are possible due to heavy snow
and gusty winds. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 35
below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as
10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels ranging from 2000 to 3000 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Worth highlighting I think !

The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 35 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

Dave.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Megan and I just are back from a 24-hour road trip to Death Valley and back. More snow on the mountains than I have ever seen and certainly more than can remember in historic photos.

And the storm warning from Yosemite are dire indeed.

Mark

[Mark Sedenquist]

In light of the snow predictions -- I am thinking about adjusting my predictions for the opening day. The one thing that is holding me back is that there is thought in the weather geek communities that a system is setting up to bring warm atmospheric rivers to the west coast in mid-March, which could fall as rain on all of that snow pack. Flooding potential gets extreme in that scenario.

Mark

[Mark Sedenquist]

This is the coolest planning tool ever. Long-time photo contributor, Bruce Jones, just shared this with us.

Look at this:



The way this was generated was go to CNRFC - Hydrology - Freezing Level Data (noaa.gov)

**Navigate down to the Graphical Freezing Level products and click on the day and time you want to look at.

** So I chose Day One at 4pm (which was today at 4pm) and that image (above) is what is generated.

Why this is so cool for roadtrippers is you can use this tool (NWS freezing level site) to look at freezing levels which will tell you where the snow level will be during storms.

Pretty neat eh?

Mark

[Southwest Dave]

That is cool, very cool ! (Ice cold in fact) Nice tool for Road trippers.

Dave

[Southwest Dave]

Some great images of Yosemite following the snow storm !

This is looking at the Falls inbetween the storms.



And after the 'BIG' one in Curry village.





At Yosemite falls shuttle stop !



And finally, if you're going to get stuck, I guess it's handy to have a toilet !!



Dave.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Those are crazy photos.

Mark