Competition time. The 32nd Tioga pass prognosticator. Winter closing 2021.

[Southwest Dave]

Welcome to the 32nd Tioga pass prognosticator and your chance to win a free tank of petrol for your road trip ride !!

***All you have to do is correctly predict the date the Tioga Pass will close for the 2021 winter season!!***

It's been an uncertain time for travel due to the pandemic, but one thing for sure is that Mother nature will take charge and close the Tioga pass to vehicles sometime during the winter months, but when ?? The Tioga Pass is one of the most scenic drives in the American west and is part of California State Highway 120 (CA-120), which crosses the Sierra Nevada in Yosemite National Park, but due to elevation and winter snow accumulation it will become impossible to drive across for long periods during winter. If you predict the correct date you could win a free tank of gas for your road trip ride, if you get within an hour of the official closing time you will also receive a bonus prize !! It doesn't matter how you arrive at your prediction, you can use a crystal ball, study data or just take a wild guess, all you have to do is follow the rules as set out below.

So have you got what it takes to become the newly crowned TPPC ?? (Tioga pass prognosticator champ)

The Competition

***Please read the entry rules carefully***

To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" and time must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*If you manage to identify the correct closing time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post you must "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

If you are not familiar with Tioga pass just take a look at these contrasting images from the same web camera !!





Here are some links that may help you to gather information on previous years and current conditions.

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:

2020 competition was suspended due to the pandemic.
2019.November 19th
2018:November 20th
2017: November 14th
2016: November 16th
2015: November 1st
2014: November 13th
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th

Here is a link to the official Yosemite Opening and closing dates page.

Yosemite webcam for a view of whats happening right now !.

And here is a link to the previous 10 Tioga pass closing competitions.

2019 Winter closing.
2018 winter closing.
2017 winter closing.
2016 winter closing.
2015 winter closing.
2014 winter closing.
2013 winter closing.
2012 winter closing.
2011 winter closing.
2010 winter closing.

Here is a list of previous winners and dcTPP's. (darn close Tioga Pass Prognosticators.)

Tioga pass champions.

Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2018. Reigning Champ !
......................(tantrum), Spring 2015 Opening (never identified or claimed the prize)
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
..................... (weirj), Winter 2008 (never identified or claimed the prize)

***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)

************** tseeb. 2020 Spring opening
**************anuj1985. winter 2019
**************Southwest Dave. Spring 2019
************** tseeb Spring 2018
************** Mark Sedenquist, Winter 2017
**************Southwest Dave Spring 2017
**************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

And here are some winning contestants filling their tanks with their prize money !

Mark Sedenquist Winter Closing, 2018 ( must be "insider trading" and time for someone to take his crown !!)


Double winner George Carey (glc) in Spring opening 2014 and 2013 !!


(Who says lightning doesn't strike twice !!)


Jessica Beagles-Roos [CAnative] 2011 winter closing.


Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative) 2011 Spring opening. (Another double winner !!)


Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010.


Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009.


Remember, your prediction must be posted on this thread to include time and date and you must 'Ping the Poll' at the top to qualify !

Good luck !!

Dave.

[DonnaR57]

Nov. 22nd. 9 am.



Donna

[tseeb]

Predicting the closing date is tougher than the opening and has only one entry so far.

Tioga will temporarily close tomorrow and not sure if it will re-open or temporarily close again next Mon/Tues when more precipitation and lows in the mid-teens are predicted for South Lake Tahoe.

https://snowbrains.com/tioga-road-close-snowstorm/

[tseeb]

My WAG is November 18 at 5 PM although it would be less work for NPS if they just left Tioga closed and nobody here wins. From https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/conditions.htm
"Tioga Road (Hwy 120 through the park) and Glacier Point Road are temporarily closed
Tioga Road (the continuation of Highway 120 through the park) and Glacier Point Road are temporarily closed due to an incoming storm. Call 209/372-0200 (then 1, 1) for current status."

Ski forums had pictures of snow at Mammoth Mountain, which is not far from Tioga and at Mt Rose ski area, where almost 9,000' pass between Reno and Tahoe had chain control.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Yeah, my brother was attempting to drive over the pass today. No idea if he made it before the closure.

I think it will reopen and my WAG is November 30th at 8:30 am.

Happy Prognosticating All!

Mark

[Mark Sedenquist]

Maybe the winner(s) of this Prognosticator Puzzle will be able to join us at the 26th Anniversary Party of RTA on March 5th!

I hope so.

Mark

[tseeb]

Yeah, my brother was attempting to drive over the pass today. No idea if he made it before the closure.

Maybe the winner(s) of this Prognosticator Puzzle will be able to join us at the 26th Anniversary Party of RTA on March 5th!

I hope so.

Mark

Mark, It will be interesting to hear if your brother got through (or where he went instead) as Tioga was scheduled to "temporarily close on Thursday, October 7, at 5 pm" according to snowbrains link I posted earlier. Tioga and Glacier Point are both still closed.

I will keep the Anniversary Party in mind. Current plans have me in Las Vegas late on the following day, but I may be able to move it up.

[Mark Sedenquist]

Yeah, my brother was attempting to drive over the pass today. No idea if he made it before the closure.

All passes WERE closed yesterday, he was driving back to the bay area from Mammoth and so went west via Minden for an eleven hour cruise. I will post photos here when I get them from him.

[Southwest Dave]

The Tioga pass is 'Amber' at the moment, currently open with a caution warning of icy conditions. Anyone planning to travel are advised to use the Yosemite website for the latest information as it can change at a moments notice !

Dave.

[tseeb]

All passes WERE closed yesterday, he was driving back to the bay area from Mammoth and so went west via Minden for an eleven hour cruise. I will post photos here when I get them from him.

Did your brother run into traffic or weather or make a lot of stops? Google Maps says Mammoth to San Jose via Minden is 6 hrs 15 min, less than an hour longer than going through Yosemite (5 hrs 19 min) even though it is 75 miles further. To Santa Rosa, it is almost the same time via Minden or Tioga. Time difference between routes to other Bay Area locations are somewhere in between.

I was a little worried about what I was getting into in April when driving the camper from Mammoth to South Tahoe I had snow on Deadman Summit, which is only about 10 miles N of Mammoth and barely over 8K elevation. I was glad to hear from friend who was ahead of me in his Tesla that there was no snow on nearly 9k Conway Summit. We got to cabin at same time as he charged behind Hard Rock Casino.