Winter Rite of Passage: Tioga Pass Prognosticator #10

[Mark Sedenquist]

Tioga Pass Prognosticator #10
This is our tenth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. (I know it just opened for the 2010 travel season, and the road isn't even dry from the snow melt, but time marches on...Even worse, the Grand Prize Winner from the 9th Prognosticator hasn't even received his goodies yet.. but soon.)

For all of those folks who think that Tioga Pass is not a big deal... one of our long-time roadtripper colleagues remembers driving it in the 1930's when it was a single lane, dirt track, with no guardrails and drop-offs on both sides of the road....

Last Spring, RTA Forum Member, Exodus, claimed the title of Reigning Chief Prognosticator when he correctly named the opening day and opening time of this famous highway. {Exodus' winning prediction was June 5th at 8:00 am} Here's the post announcing that achievement.

We're now looking for the 2nd Winning Prognosticator for the Winter Closing. Previously, it's only been awarded once -- and that was back in 2008.

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they may also be arbritrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring 2010 -- Official annoucement
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009 (Click here for news about this achievement)
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue) Winter 2009 Click here for the declaration of dcTPP winner!
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte) Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless) Spring 2007


Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th
2001: November 11th
And here are the Yosemite National Park Official Closing and Opening Dates for last several years!


The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD

* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page

Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring Opening 2006
Winter Closing 2006
Spring Opening 2007
Winter Closing 2007
Spring Opening 2008
Winter Closing 2008
Spring Opening 2009
Winter Closing 2009
Spring Opening 2010

And here you can monitor current conditions from some Web cams in Yosemite NP.

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

Happy Predicting!

Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff

[Mark Sedenquist]

OK, he who posts the thread, throws the first first dart....

Mark

[AMiniAndAMap]

I just got back from a 6-week cross-country road trip, including my first drive through Tioga Pass, so I'll throw the second dart:

November 12, 2010 at 3:12 am.

[glc]

November 8 at 4pm.

[Mass Tim]

November 14 at 4:37am.

[CalOldBlue]

11/11 at 11:11.

I think I picked an evening time last time out.

[Southwest Dave]

^^^^

Yes you did, the time was around when your daughter walked down the aisle and the Bears walked back to the locker room ! ;-)

[CalOldBlue]

Ah yes! The evening I not only lost a daughter, I lost another shot at the Rose Bowl.

Cal Bear fans: 51 years and counting.

[Southwest Dave]

With a big low pressure coming into California and some snow accumulation expected in the high Sierra's, it is a reminder that it is "that time of year" again. [Gee, where did the time go ?]

Although the Tioga pass usually stays open into November and occasionally December, it was only 6 years ago that it closed on October 17, just 13 day's from now !

Weather update.

Prediction. I am going to go with November 16th @ 4pm

[Midwest Michael]

Lets stick with the numeric theme and go 11/10 at 09:00 am