Competition. Tioga Pass Prognosticator 23. Spring Opening 2017.

Tioga Pass Spring opening 2017 competition.

Win a tank of fuel for your ride !

.................................................. ....

This is our 23rd attempt at predicting future conditions for one of America's favorite mountain passes. Tioga Pass crosses the Sierra Nevada mountains through Yosemite NP as part of CA Highway 120 which can close for the winter season from any time in October and may not open up again until as late as June. After 6 years of drought conditions, January 2017 has brought much need precipitation to the area, one of the wettest ever January's recorded in Mono Basin with possibly more to come. This is good news for water levels at Mono lake and the folks in California who rely heavily on this water source. In Tuolumne Meadows it has turned from record drought to record snowfall with the Yosemite website reporting : 'Within a mere three weeks we have measured 207 inches of snow and 20.25 inches of water '.

Taken from Yosemite Sentinel webcam on January 7 2017.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-01-07-17.jpg

So if you fancy your chances of correctly predicting this seasons opening date and becoming our next Tioga Pass Prognosticator champion, you can win a tank of gas for your road trip ride. To enter for free, read on !!

The Contest.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of Roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD* ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they can also be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

The rules.

*** To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road OPENING date. **Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread
** ** Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry). *And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
*** Once you have selected your date you must select the relevant date range in the Poll above.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
2016 May 18th (Noon)
2015 May 4th (8 am)
2014 May 2nd (Noon)
2013 May 11th (Noon)
2012 May 7th (Noon)
2011 June 18th (8:45 am)
2010 June 5th (8:00 am)
2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
2006: June 17th
2005: June 24th
2004: May 14th
2003: May 31st
2002: May 22nd
2001: May 12th

Our reigning Tioga Pass Prognosticator champ is member is Tantrum who successfully predicted the 2015 Spring opening and our current Dctpp (Darn close Tioga pass Prognosticator) is member travelingman who missed out on last years correct closing date by just 24 hours.
Here's the official list of the Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date: -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:

Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:

*** tantrum, Spring 2015 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013
Opening Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008 -

***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)

*************travelingman Winter 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007 -

Here are some links you may find helpful:

Yosemite record of recent opening and closing dates.

A list of opening and closing dates for other Sierra Nevada passes.

And see what's happening right now on Yosemite Webcams.

And here are links to the previous 10 competitions.
Winter closing 2016.
Spring opening 2016.
Winter closing 2015.
Spring opening 2015.
Winter 2014 closing.
Spring 2014 Opening.
Winter closing 2013.
Spring opening 2013.
Winter closing 2012.
Spring opening 2012.
Winter closing 2011.

So what are you waiting for ? You could be filling up your tank like these previous winners !

glc. (George Carey.)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg

CANative. (Jessica Beagle-Roos)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...os-Kingman.jpg

Exodus. (Brian Shannon.)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg

PhilB (Phil Boardman)
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg

***Good luck !!***

I'm gonna get the ball rolling with an early prediction, which is going to be for
May 29th @ 11am

Dave.

May 12th at Noon -- Memorable day

And a big thanks to Sheriff Dave for getting this set up again!

Mark

Still lots of snow in the high country of Yosemite Valley
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ck_0129-17.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy. January 28th at 8:40 am PST

Just a few days ago, all of those trees were covered in snow too.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...2_01-29-17.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy, January 29th at 3:45 pm PST.

Hopefully they will get the Sentinel Webcam up and running soon as it gives a much better picture of what's happening on the high ground. Perhaps it's been buried under all that snow !!

Dave.

The National weather service has announced a storm warning for the Sierra Nevada. Looks like a lot more snow on the way !

Quote:

---

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
TO KINGS CANYON ABOVE 6000 FEET.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET. UP TO 30
INCHES NEAR THE CREST.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND MAY
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW
ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING
SNOW...REDUCED VISIBILITY...AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

---

Take care if you are travelling and avoid if possible.

Very heavy snow is forecast across the Sierra with new snow accumulation of up to 2.5 foot predicted on the high ground in Tuolumne meadows through today into Tuesday night. !!

Dave.

Our San Diego area forecasters are showing a map full of snow in the mountains through the end of the week, at least. Of course, all of these are just forecasts.

We are getting rain down here on the southern and lower elevation areas of California....



Donna

From Spain to Glaceir point next June.
Got to drive there next 11th of June, so I hope it opens:
June 3rd. Noon

More snow is due in the second half of this week up on the pass and could continue into next week. News from the east side of the Sierra's in Mono basin say February 1st snow surveys revealed an approximately 200% of average snow water content. This puts the April 1 average at just over 120%, so even with a dry Feb and March it would be an above average season. With a wet end to the season, new records could be made for April 1st survey report.

Dave.

The latest winter storm warning predicts there could be up to 4feet of new snow accumulation.

From the National weather service.

Quote:

---

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING ABOVE 7000 FEET...

The National Weather Service in Hanford has issued a Winter Storm
Watch above 7000 feet...which is in effect from Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.

* LOCATIONS...Southern Sierra Nevada from Yosemite National Park
to the Tulare and Kern County border above 7000 feet.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and blowing snow.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 to 3 feet with up to 4 feet possible
from Yosemite National Park to Kings Canyon National Park.

* TIMING...Snow will begin Sunday afternoon and become heavy at
times Sunday night through Monday.

---

Dave.

........and so is the 'Hump'. Snow is still falling and the hump is already Huge !

https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2350/3...e0135be9_z.jpg

Dave.

Todays view [or lack of] from the Sentinel webcam.

http://pixelcaster.com/yosemite/webcams/sentinel.jpg

I can't recall seeing a bigger Hump' than that right there !!

Dave.

Yes, that is an incredible amount of snow. The waterfalls are going to be incredible this spring!

Mark

The main web cam that we usually use is still blocked by snow, but look at this view taken at the USGS web cam on the Merced River in Yosemite Valley at Happy Isles Gauging station:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...les_030617.jpg
This is a lot of snow on the valley floor.
Photo courtesy of the USGS, March 6th at 7:40 am PST

And this was taken from the Web Cam near Lone Pine today:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ney_030617.jpg
Photo courtesy of WhitneyZone.com

And if you are fortunate to see this right now -- this is one of the more dramatic views I've eer seen of Yosemite Falls!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

And if you are fortunate to see this right now -- this is one of the more dramatic views I've eer seen of Yosemite Falls!

---

Attachment 4544

Could it be this one Mark?

Yes, that is the view I was thinking of.

I am going to update my opening day bid....Been looking at the snow pack reports and I think the road Tioga Pass Road will now open on Wednesday, June 21st at Noon.

Mark

There is a Winter weather warning out from the National weather Service over the weekend with more of the white stuff coming down.

Quote:

---

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1058 AM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017

CAZ096-250200-
/O.CON.KHNX.WW.Y.0007.170324T1800Z-170325T1800Z/
Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon-
1058 AM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...Southern Sierra Nevada above 7000 feet from
Yosemite National Park to Kings Canyon National Park.

* HAZARD TYPES...Reduced visibility in snow. Snow accumulating
on trees and power lines.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches above 7000
feet with local amounts up to 12 inches over higher
elevations. Snow level lowering to around 6000 feet by
Saturday morning with a 1 to 3 inches accumulation possible.

* TIMING...Snow developing during the afternoon near Yosemite and
spreading southeast later today. Snow becoming heavy at times
this evening, then diminishing snow showers into Saturday
morning.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions with reduced visibility
and blowing snow. Possible power outages.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow will cause
travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited
visibilities, and use caution while driving.

---

Dave.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Southwest Dave

There is a Winter weather warning out from the National weather Service over the weekend with more of the white stuff coming down.



Dave.

---

Twain Harte looks like a nice little town to make a stop ;)

Me thinks you'd want to have snow goggles up there today!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...nel_032817.jpg
Photo courtesy of the The Yosemite Conservancy March 28th, at 12:45 pm PDT

It will be interesting to see how badly damaged those treeline trees are after this year.

My June roadtrip takes me to Tioga pass next 11th of June and we really don't have high hopes that it'll be opened by then. Anyway fingers crossed, hoping for a hot spring and to have better luck with highway 108

Another top up of snow is forecast for the high ground in the Sierra's with heavy snowfall forecast throughout Friday.

From the National weather centre.

Quote:

---

* LOCATIONS...The Sierra Nevada from the Tulare and Kern County
line north to Yosemite National Park above 7000 feet.

* Snow Levels: Snow levels will initially be around or above 7000 feet
Friday before rising to 8000 - 9000 feet in the afternoon,
especially south of Kings Canyon. On Saturday morning snow levels
will fall again to 5000-6000 feet.

* HAZARD TYPES...Snow and blowing snow.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Between 2 and 3 feet above 7000 feet.

* TIMING...Heaviest snow fall will be late tonight through early
Saturday morning.

---

Still waiting to see what the snow survey report for April 1st reveals for the year, but the depth of snow at Tioga entry station is reported to be about 16feet deep and around 9feet in Tuolumne Meadows.

Fresh layer of snow on the bumpy snow from yesterday:
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-04-07-17.jpg
Photo courtesy of The Yosemite Conservancy -- April 7th at 8:55 am PDT

I have copied this info from Yosemite's facebook page.

Quote:

---

The April snow survey results are in! The highest elevations of the park have more than twice as much snow as usual, with new records near Tioga Pass (213%) and Vogelsang (217%). While snowpack is a little lighter at the mid-elevations, overall snowpack is at 177% of average in the Tuolumne basin and 168% in the Merced basin. At Tenaya Lake the snowpack is at 203% of average.

---

That's certainly welcome news after so many years of drought and they are estimating that Mono Lake could rise by 3.8feet in the coming year.

Dave.

The crews have been working on the clearing of Glacier point road, but no reports that they have started on Tioga as yet. (Normally work starts around this time of year.) It looks as though they have one of the biggest challenges on their hands for a number of years, cutting through 8feet of snow in places and tackling numerous downed trees.

Plowing along Glacier point road to Sentinel dome parking area.
http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j2...pscfvxumeg.jpg

Dave.

The road crews are mobilizing equipment to begin plowing along the Tioga Road, but this in itself is causing delays as they are having to drive the heavy machinery around a long detour because of the closure on Big Oak Flat road.

Crews have reached Glacier point parking lot but there is a lot of work to be done in widening the road out and removing hazardous trees along the way.

Dave.

The "Hump" is gone for another year, I would expect.

Those trees look a little "hammered" as well.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-04-23-17.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy. April 23rd at 6:30 pm PDT.

Plowing crews have reached White Wolf from the west side of the Tioga Road! They are plowing through six to eight feet of very wet snow and are progressing about a half mile most days. Advance avalanche crews are working at Olmsted Point (one of the major avalanche zones along the road)

http://go.nps.gov/1g93kk.

Thanks for the update !

Yes they are steadily making progress but usually at this point they are just cutting an opening through the road. Once that is completed they then have to start the widening of the road and clear fallen trees and rocks from the road. This slows the crews as with a deep snow pack they can't always see what's there and are mindful not to damage the equipment.

Dave

The Glacier Point road was set to open at 9am today although I haven't yet seen official confirmation that it actually happened.

Tioga crews are around the Yosemite Creek and still working hard.

Dave.

The NPS website says the Glacier Point Road is in fact open.

Tioga:

Quote:

---

There is no estimated opening date; in years with similar snowpack, the road has opened in late June or early July.

---

Snow in the forecast for this week - this may slow things down!

Video taken on May 1

June 25th, noon.



Donna

Crews are working around the May lake area and still battling with snow depths of 8-10 feet and progress is slow at around 1 mile per day. Forestry crews are working behind them between Crane flat and White Wolf clearing fallen and hazardous trees. A lot of work ahead !

That's a cool video posted by George, showing the scale of the task ahead. Here it is again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crECtMJQ3OA

Dave.

The HUMP is certainly gone for another season!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-05-23-17.jpg
May 23rd at 11:51 am PDT. Look how brown and damaged the needles look in those trees. Weird!
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy.

And that video from the previous post -- is rather stunning!

I hope it will open on June 2nd 2017 at noon as will be at Mono lake and would like to go to Yosemite!

After looking at the video of the work yet to be done as of April ... (does anyone know WHEN in April that video footage was captured???), I am updating my prognostication... June 19th at 9 am!

Mark

Hi Ada. I will certainly keep my fingers crossed for you, but I certainly wouldn't place a bet on it being open by June 2nd even with long odds.

Dave.

Mark, that footage was taken on May 1.

According to local media, it may not be open till July.