Contest. Tioga Pass Prognosticator 22.

When will the Tioga Pass close for the winter season ?

This is our Twenty second attempt at predicting the correct date and time for the opening and closing of the Tioga Pass. This is one of the most scenic drives in the American west and is found along CA Highway 120 as it crosses the Sierra Nevada in Yosemite NP. Sometime during Fall and early winter the snow will arrive, eventually closing the Pass until the following Spring. The Yosemite Rangers will announce the closure when they feel it is no longer safe or advisable for motor vehicles to travel the road.

Do you have what it takes to be crowned
the Tioga Pass Prognosticator Champion

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Each year with changing weather patterns and budget cuts, it is becoming much more of a challenge to predict the correct date, but you have to be in it to win it !! Maybe you are a weather guru, own a Crystal Ball, have a memorable date in mind, or you simply throw a dart at the calendar. Whatever your method, can you predict this years winning date and win a tank of gas for your road trip ride ?

Two very different images of Half Dome from the same Webcam.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_05-21_13.jpg

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/photo...8_Yosemite.jpg

Our most recent winner and still the reigning Chief Prognosticator is RTA member 'Tantrum' who correctly predicted the Spring Opening in 2015. If you wish to take that title you can enter for free and win a tank of gas, this is what you need to do.

"The Contest".

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD*

Please read entry rules carefully.

To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" and time must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct closing time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighbourhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).

************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

So here's official list of the Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date: -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:

Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:

*** tantrum, Spring 2015 Opening

George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008

***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)

*************Jessica Beagles-Roos [CANative] Spring 2016
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007

Some information and Links that might help you along the way.

Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2016: November 16th
2015 November 1st
2014: November 13th
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th

Here are previous predictive efforts back to 2010.
Spring Opening 2016
Winter closing 2015
Spring opening 2015
Winter closing 2014.
Spring opening 2014
Winter closing 2013
Spring opening 2013
Winter closing 2012
Spring opening 2012
Winter closing 2011
Spring opening 2011
Winter closing 2010
Spring opening 2010

Yosemite NP's official list of previous openings and closures can be found here.

And a link to opening and closing dates for other Sierra Nevada passes.

And to see what's happening in Yosemite right now, check out the Webcams.

And POG photo's [Proof of Gas] from previous winners.

George Cary [glc] Spring opening 2014.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg

.....and George again Spring opening 2013.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg

Jessica Beagles-Roos [CAnative] 2011 winter closing.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...os-Kingman.jpg

CAnative 2011 Spring opening.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg

Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg

Phil Boardman (PhilB) Spring 2009
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg

Good luck !!

First dart in: November 18, 2016 at Noon

Mark

November 17, 2016 At 11:45 am

To everyone taking part please check that your date and time predictions are posted in a thread and you have 'Pinged the Poll' above. ( We have some entered into the Poll who have not posted their actual selection and Vice Versa.)

Quote:

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To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" and time must be identified in a post on this thread...**)

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Quote:

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When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection)

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Dave.

I don't see any poll

You should see the Poll selection at the top of this thread travelingman then click 'Vote now'. (?)

Otherwise known as Fireworks night. I am going to predict November 5th @ 10am.

Dave

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Southwest Dave

You should see the Poll selection at the top of this thread travelingman then click 'Vote now'. (?)

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The poll does not show on my Iphone device!

I logged on with my laptop and it does show there. I was able to vote!

If others are having the same trouble using their Iphone, go to a computer instead. Yeah, I know, who still uses their laptop?

update: Although the poll doesn't show on my Iphone, it verified that it does work with two different Android tablets. Guess the poll just isn't compatible with Iphones, but that is how I read my email.

It's looking beautiful up on the high ground as September nears an end.

Attachment 4350

However there is a little snow possible in the forecast for Sunday into Monday morning, just to remind us we will be into October with the possibility of some early winter storms not too far away.

Dave.

Expect a closure this weekend due to the big storm in the Pacific Northwest. Very high winds, rain, and up to 8 inches of snow is forecast for Tioga Pass. Ebbetts and Sonora are both already closed due to the storm.

Tioga Road is now closed. From weather.gov:

Quote:

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Today
Snow showers. High near 47. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Tonight
Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 11pm. Low around 32. Very windy, with a southwest wind 45 to 50 mph decreasing to 35 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Monday
A 50 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Windy, with a west southwest wind 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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Good catch George, we are getting to that stage where things start to get interesting !

Dave.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...10-29-16-1.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy. October 28th at 10:44 PDT

No snow yet, but it is on the way

The pass is closed with a possible 12 inches of snowfall above 8000ft in the forecast.

Half Dome looks like the top half a Rook the way the cloud has shaped it in the above photo, or is that just me !?

Anyone travelling into Yosemite valley will need to check the latest info as a rock fall has closed the entrance on El Portal Road to Big Oak Flat Rd. You can still access the Valley via 120 from the west or 41 from the south.

Dave.

[Tioga Pass is still closed at this time]

Yosemite's Facebook page just posted that 140 will be reopened at 7pm tonight.

The Pass remains closed for now with a reported 10-18 inches of snow at the east entry gate and 5 inches along Dana Meadows with ice creating a problem. A clear but cold week ahead is forecast so hopefully the day time sun will do enough to cause a thaw of the ice and get the road open, if not it could be a real early closure this year. [October 28th I think it closed]

[Glacier point open]

Dave.

I'll try Nov 22nd at 3 pm.

My son got to Sonora Pass area for hiking today (cold and snow) so maybe there will be some thawing. Very happy about the rain and snow this fall in No CA.

Jessica

Apparently the road opened today.

Yes confirmed open on the official site and the Yosemite Facebook page with a decent weather forecast for the week ahead.

I am taking a shot at November 29th @ 10am

Dave.

Dec. 1st at noon.

It's looking lovely in Yosemite right now with possible snow showers forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday and although it doesn't look to be anything too significant, the temperatures take a dive so I wonder if ice may become a problem.

Dave.

As I suspected, both the Tioga Pass and Glacier point road have been closed due to icy conditions. Snow showers are forecast from Saturday right through to Monday so it's possible it won't open before the weekend. Is that it for the season ? We will have to wait and see.

Dave.

Just in case it's not closed yet, I'll get my guess in for Dec. 5th at 10am.

Friends of mine are reporting that the Valley weather in Yosemite was really nice yesterday. Still waiting for a further report from them.



Donna

It looks as though the first significant snow is going to fall over this coming weekend. Up on the high ground could see up to 18inches of fresh snow and even Yosemite valley will not escape entirely with 8 inches of new snow accumulation a possibility.

Dave.

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-11-27-16.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy (11/27/16 at 2:50 om PST)

It certainly looks like the high country of the Sierras must already be closed to vehicular traffic...

Mark

HIGHWAY CONDITIONS REPORT AT 1845 HRS ON 11/27/16

SR 4
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA]
IS CLOSED FROM 0.3 MI EAST OF THE JCT OF SR 207 TO THE JCT OF SR 89
/EBBETTS PASS/ (ALPINE CO) - DUE TO SNOW - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE

SR 89
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
IS CLOSED FROM THE JCT OF US 395 (MONO CO) TO THE JCT OF SR 4
/MONITOR PASS/ (ALPINE CO) - DUE TO SNOW - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO
USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

[IN THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
IS CLOSED FROM THE LASSEN VOLCANIC NAT'L PARK SOUTH BDRY TO THE
JCT OF SR 44 /LASSEN LOOP/ (TEHAMA, SHASTA CO) - DUE TO SNOW - MOTORISTS ARE
ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

SR 108
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
IS CLOSED FROM 7.2 MI EAST OF STRAWBERRY (TUOLUMNE CO) TO 8 MI WEST OF
THE JCT OF US 395 (MONO CO) /SONORA PASS/ - DUE TO SNOW - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED
TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

SR 120
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
IS CLOSED FROM CRANE FLAT TO 3.5 MI WEST OF THE JCT OF US 395 /TIOGA PASS/
(TUOLUMNE, MONO CO) - DUE TO SNOW - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE
ROUTE

SR 168
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
IS CLOSED FROM LAKE SABRINA TO ASPENDELL (INYO CO) - FOR THE WINTER
- MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

SR 203
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
IS CLOSED FROM THE MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN INN (MONO CO) TO THE
MONO/MADERA CO LINE - FOR THE WINTER - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE
AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

SR 270
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
IS CLOSED FROM THE JCT OF US 395 TO 9.8 MI EAST OF THE JCT OF US 395
(MONO CO) DUE TO SNOW - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

Lots of chain controls too.

The YNP website now states that road is closed for the season (rather than temporarily closed due to snow and ice). Don't know when status was changed since haven't checked for awhile.

Jessica

Well spotted Jessica, although I had checked very recently and there had been no official notification at that time so you were quick off the mark. The official closing date was announced as being November 16th and although there is no official time I am aware they closed it late afternoon in preparation for bad conditions overnight on that day.

We do not have a winner this year with the correct date, but we do have a new DCTPP champ [Darn close Tioga Pass Prognosticator] who is travelingman who predicted it would close on November 17th @ 11:45am way back when the contest started in August.

Congratulations travelingman (And commiserations, you were so close to nailing it ! )

Dave.

Caltrans reports all the other usual winter closures except for the June Lake Loop are now closed for the winter.

Interesting - Caltrans says Tioga closed on 12/1.....

Congratulations to travelingman for another expert and intrepid prognostication effort! I think you have earned a new RTA cap -- which is actually even rarer than a tank of roadtrip fuel. So, please get in touch with us.

Travelingman has been a member of RTA since April, 2010 and great to be able to give him some recognition.

Mark

The Humpeth Returns!
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-01-07-17.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy -- January 7th at 10:25 am PST

Those of us downhill from the Sierras are thankful for any and all snowpack that the mountains get. It makes a huge difference to ALL of us, for our water supply! Perhaps it doesn't help us directly, but if the farmers get the water they need for their crops, they get more crops which keeps our produce prices lower.



Donna

Awesome video of Yosemite Falls here, the good news, the epic flooding that had been forecasted didn't happen. They eye of the storm shifted away from Yosemite Valley.

Yeah that's quite something ! Let's hope everyone uses common sense and stays safe.

Dave.

Well it's been a great start to 2017 as far as precipitation goes. It has gone from record drought to a very wet January, one of the wettest in fact. They are hoping Mono Lake water levels will rise by up to a foot and ease some of the fears over a water shortage in the LA basin.

So, do you fancy having a go at predicting the Tioga Pass 2017 Spring opening date ? Here's the link to the latest Tioga Pass Prognosticator thread for Spring 2017.

Dave.

For the record: Most of California is out of the Drought stage, with the exception of a couple of counties. However, they are still asking us to conserve our water use, homes and business are still on a restricted schedule for watering outdoor plants-trees-lawns, and of course our water bills rise because the rates have gone up. Many of the reservoirs are looking better, though not to pre-drought conditions yet.

At the moment, rains in San Diego County have ceased, and the vast majority of folks that I have spoken with are glad to have the chance to "dry out" a little before the next storms are due in. During our last storm, the hills were so saturated that we were seeing rock slides and mud slides (not of the drink-able variety). A road that I use for a work commute was closed on three occasions, forcing me to use another route, because of rocks and mud that came down.

SWDave, we too would like to see Mono Lake filled, along with San Vicente Reservoir in our east county, Lake Poway and Lake Ramona in the northeast county, and Lake Hodges in the north county near Escondido -- and many more reservoirs.


Donna

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Southwest Dave

December 3rd, 2016: Well spotted Jessica, although I had checked very recently and there had been no official notification at that time so you were quick off the mark. The official closing date was announced as being November 16th and although there is no official time I am aware they closed it late afternoon in preparation for bad conditions overnight on that day.

We do not have a winner this year with the correct date, but we do have a new DCTPP champ [Darn close Tioga Pass Prognosticator] who is travelingman who predicted it would close on November 17th @ 11:45am way back when the contest started in August.

Congratulations travelingman (And commiserations, you were so close to nailing it ! )

Dave.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

Congratulations to travelingman for another expert and intrepid prognostication effort! I think you have earned a new RTA cap -- which is actually even rarer than a tank of roadtrip fuel. So, please get in touch with us.

Travelingman has been a member of RTA since April, 2010 and great to be able to give him some recognition.

Mark

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by travelingman

Mark,

While entering this years contest, I just now learned that I came in a close second in last years Tioga Pass closing contest.

Out of curiosity, I looked up that thread and noticed that your post mentioned a Road Trip hat.

It's a year late, but is it possible that there's still a hat sitting around with my name on it?

I never win anything, so I never followed up on the contest. Stupid of me, I know.

--Michael E. Ward, October 1, 2017

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Michael (Travelingman) there is no "statute of limitations" on this award, so yes, there is a RTA cap with your name on it, here in the office. I will be in touch to obtain your address!

And even though technically you didn't capture last year's prize of a tank of road trip fuel, we'd love to be able to post a POG photo of you wearing your hat in the weeks ahead!

Mark
Under-Sheriff

That's great news!

Thank you so much!