Tioga Pass Prognosticator 20 * Winter closing 2015.
Advent of the Winter RoadTrip Season in the West !
This is our Twentieth attempt at predicting the correct date and time for the opening and closing of the Tioga Pass. This is one of the most scenic drives in the American west and is found along CA Highway 120 as it crosses the Sierra Nevada in Yosemite NP. Sometime during Fall and early winter the snow will arrive, eventually closing the Pass until the following Spring. The Yosemite Rangers will announce the closure when they feel it is no longer safe or advisable for motor vehicles to travel the road.
Mother Nature has not been very cooperative with the would-be TPP's over the last couple of winter closing periods. The last year that anyone captured the TPP title was Winter of 2011 (it actually closed in January of 2012) so maybe 2015 will usher in a new era of prognosticator excellence!
Each year with changing weather patterns and budget changes it is becoming much more of a challenge to predict that correct date, but you have to be in it to win it !! Maybe you are a weather guru, own a Crystal Ball, have a memorable date in mind, or you simply throw a dart at the calender. Whatever your method, can you predict this years winning date and win a tank of gas for your road trip ride ?
Two images from the same webcam !
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_05-21_13.jpg
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/photo...8_Yosemite.jpg
Our reigning Tioga Pass Prognosticator champ is forum member 'tantrum' who correctly predicted May 4th as the 2015 Spring opening date on his first ever attempt !!. Winning confirmation can be seen here.
Do you have what it takes to be the new Chief Tioga Pass Prognosticator?
************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...
So here's official list of the Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date: -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
*** tantrum, Spring 2015 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2014 Opening
George Carey (glc), Spring 2013 Opening
Jessica Beagles-Roos (CAnative), Spring 2011 and Winter 2011 (although it actually closed in 2012)
Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
weirj Winter 2008
***and the dcTPP contestants (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Jessica Beagles-Roos, (CaNative), Winter 2013
*************George Carey (glc), Spring 2012
*************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007
Official Tioga Pass Closings in recent years:
2014: November 13th
2013: November 18th
2012: November 8th
2011: January 17th, 2012
2010: November 19th
2009: November 12th
2008: October 30th
2007: December 6th
2006: November 26th
2005: November 25th
2004: October 17th
2003: October 31st
2002: November 5th
Here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.
"The Contest".
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD*
Please read entry rules carefully.
To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
* Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.
When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page (This is done by completing your poll selection).
Previous Predictive Efforts:
Spring 2006 Opening
Winter 2006 Closing
Spring 2007 Opening
Winter 2007 Closing
Spring 2008 Opening
Winter 2008 Closing
Spring 2009 Opening
Winter 2009 Closing
Spring 2010 Opening
Winter 2010 Closing,
Spring 2011 Opening
Winter 2011 Closing
Spring 2012 Opening
Winter 2012 Closing
Spring 2013 Opening
Winter, 2013 Closing
Spring 2014 Opening
Winter 2014 Closing
Spring 2015 Opening
POG Photo's. [Proof of gas]
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...y_2014_650.jpg
George Carey [glc] 2014
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...ey_07-3-13.jpg
George Carey [glc] 2013
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...os-Kingman.jpg
JESSICA BEAGLES-ROO, (CAnative): 2011 Winter closing.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...er_Jessica.jpg
Jessica Beagles-Roo [CAnative ]2011 Spring opening.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...010_Winner.jpg
Brian Shannon [Exodus] 2010
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...pinFreeGas.jpg
Phil Boardman [PhilB] 2009
More info.
Yosemite National park website.
Yosemite Webcams for the latest images.
This page shows you the opening and closing dates of other California mountain passes.
Here are a couple of images from the Sentinel webcam, with and without the snow.
Happy Predicting! Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff -
News is that it's re-opened
After a period of opening and closing the pass with an escort through from Highway patrol, the pass has been opened up consistently since Monday. It is reported that there are portions along the road where you are prevented from stopping and you should still check current conditions before travelling. Great news for the Lee Vining residents and surrounding areas who have had the 'Code red emergency alert' lifted which means there will be no evacuations at this time. Great work by the fire crews who put themselves on the line to tackle these fires.
Dave.
Things may be about to change !
An urgent winter weather notice has been posted for heavy snow, between 8 and 16 inches Sunday night into Monday morning on the high ground !
Quote:
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
227 AM PDT SAT OCT 31 2015
CAZ096-311800-
/O.EXT.KHNX.WS.A.0004.151102T0600Z-151103T0600Z/
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
227 AM PDT SAT OCT 31 2015
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET...
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOVE 9000 FEET SUNDAY EVENING LOWERING TO NEAR
7000 FEET BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES...BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE
TEENS BY MONDAY EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WEEKEND HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD CONSIDER ADJUSTING THEIR TRAVEL
PLANS BEFORE THE ONSET OF STORMY...WINTRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
I'm not sure if this could spell the end for this season but cold temperatures and the seemingly lack of funding to make an attempt to clear it, who knows !
Dave.
Blue skies return to the high country
Already melting... melting...melting
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l_11-04-15.jpg
Photo courtesy of the Yosemite Conservancy (November 4, 2105 @ 4:06 pm PST)
Post Thanksgiving weekend
I am guessing November 30th at Noon.
Actually recapping my earlier efforts this year:
October 13th at noon (nope)
December 17th at noon (unlikely)
Mark
Might it be closed for the season ?
There is a little more snow in the forecast from Sunday night through to Tuesday and the temperatures are dropping of late. A visitor to Yosemite asked if the Tioga Pass is likely to open again to which the reply was, "It's possible, but unlikely". If that were the case then it could just be a November 1st closing at 4pm which no one has got close to. Watch this space !
Dave.
The "hump" is no longer there!
Very little hump is showing....
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-11-13-15.jpg
Photo courtesy of Yosemite Conservancy November 13, 2015 @ 9:20 am PST.
Odd that it's not officially been closed for the season
It does seem peculiar they the NPS hasn't already made the call "official" -- Has any part of the highway been open since November 1st?
Mark
Waiting for confirmation.
Hi Jessica. Yes we will need to wait for the official confirmation but I am expecting the closure date to be November 1st. This was the last date the pass was open to vehicles, the 9th December is just the date they announced it will not re-open. As I predicted in an earlier post, they couldn't delay it any longer with the storm coming in on Thurs, although I have done that before and they still refuse to call it. lol
Dave.