Tioga Pass Prognosticator #6

This is our sixth attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 connects California’s Owens Valley with the Central Valley while crossing the rugged Sierra Nevada Mountain range. When the snows of autumn descend on this alpine route, we know that winter in all of her majesty is about to close the high country for another summer road trip season and so this poll is a traditional rite of passage for the Great American RoadTrip Forum. (I know it just opened for the 2008 travel season, but time marches on...)

Last year, this famous road closed on December 6th.
In 2006 it was on November 26th and the 25th of November in 2005. ….hmmm, maybe there is a trend here somewhere. Here are the official opening and closing dates from 1980 to the present. We have yet to award a winner for a closure!

And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

For the second year in a row, for the 2008 opening, RTA Forum member, Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor) used their highly honed prognosticator skills and predicted that Tioga Pass would open for the summer, 2008 road trip season, on May 22nd. Unfortunately, it actually opened at 8:00 am on May 21st, so for the want of this 24 hour period, they missed the grand prize but earned the equally coveted title of dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) More about the Spring opening poll can be found by clicking here. The previous year, Kinless, was the winner of the dcTPP prize.

You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD To win this prize, the date must be posted on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official closing date.

Good luck!

RTA Editorial Team

Current Record Holders:
Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009 (Click here for news about this achievement)
weirj Winter 2008
******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
*************Don Casey (CalOldBlue) Winter 2009 Click here for the declaration of dcTPP winner!
*************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte) Spring 2008
*************Joey (Kinless) Spring 2007

Why? Well, I don't know about California but, here in Washington state, we are having the worst June in recent memory. It might as well be March still. So I'm hoping the west coast has a long, warm and sunny fall that will push winter off as long as possible since summer seems to have such a late start this year.

Hmmmmmm.........put me down for December 1. Why? I dunno. It's Monday after Thanksgiving weekend.

My crystal ball has just told me the closing date will be November 21st

I'm gonna give Friday, November 28th a shot this year.

Most likely that's a few days too late but I think I spent all my dcTPP energy the first year I participated and I've gotten everything wrong since. I'm just using darts now.

I'm going to go for November 18th, probably too early but you never know, beginners luck and all that.

Cheers

David

I'm thinking winter will be a little earlier than the past couple years, so I'll go with November 12.

November 15.

I vote for November 24th.

11/24/08 --> 1+1+2+4 == 8 == 1*1*2*4

I now throw down the gauntlet and ask Mother Nature to prove this theory wrong!

A scientific proof for the end of the Tioga Pass season -- what a concept!

Mark

I'll stick with my mums birthday: 21st November!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by UKCraig

I'll stick with my mums birthday: 21st November!

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But seeing as it's your Mum's birthday I can roll over a day if you want. ;-)

The state route is closed today due to heavy snow on the pass -- but I don't think this is the official closing. Anyone local who can comment on this?

if this holds up -- new member weirj could well be the winner this year.....

Mark

I looked at the latest photo from the entry kiosk (last updated last night) and it it certainly looks like it is still snowing there....

Mammoth Lakes Ski are opened yesterday -- one of the earliest openings in recent years.....

Mark

The pass is still closed although they havn't updated that last picture from the kiosk yet.

I was looking at this graphical forecast and it forecasts more snow Saturday. It's quite cool, just run your mouse over the options on the left and it will show you the forecast graphics. [Next snow 4 p.m -10 p.m. Saturday.

Although the national park service states that it has closed for the long-term, they haven't updated their 28-year list of road closures with the exact date yet, so until that happens I guess we'll just have to wait.

That page hasn't been updated since late last week. Short-term closures in November are common, but they usually re-open the road this early. I agree that the outlook is "good" for more snow... but nothing is official yet.

Mark

This was the scene just before 7 .a.m. today.
If it gets another heavy dusting of snow I would think there is a chance that will be it for the season.

When that much snow is on the ground at the kiosk -- there is a good chance that 3-4 feet could already be on the ground at the pass....

Mark

The updated picture from the kiosk which I.M.O. has thicker snow on the road then the previous one.
This forecast reports another possible 5 inches over 7500ft tonight

And in the updated Web cam picture the roadway is becoming visible. Maybe it's not over yet ?
Warm days ahead but according to the Forecast the temps are dropping and more snow expected by Tues/ Weds.

I think the park officials are loathe to close before the Thanksgiving holiday. So, no winners yet....

Mark

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist

I think the park officials are loathe to close before the Thanksgiving holiday.

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Which makes them more in tune with reality than some of the officials in charge of road construction around here!

And a fresh layer of snow as forecasted but still no official announcement although that must be it for the year, surely ?

Quote:

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I think the park officials are loathe to close before the Thanksgiving holiday.
Mark

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Spot on with that one.

The pass has essentially been closed for over a month and no one will call it closed. It must be a budgetary issue.

It's very weird.

We may have to redefine what constitutes a close for our purposes... But, for the time being, we will go with the "still open" status....

Maybe Centau, & PNW Judy have the "fix" in this year somehow....

Mark

I wonder if and when they finally declare that the road as is as "closed" if they will use that date as the official closing date, or will they go back to the last date that the road was opened and base it off of that?

They have back dated it.

The official closing date is.............October 30th

I guess we have a winner, sorta, Forum Member, weirj chose... On or before Halloween (Oct. 31st) It's not an exact day, but we've never had a closing date this early....

In the past we've had two winners of the dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) -- Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor) and Kinless, and the rules envision someone naming an actual date. But clearly there is an unintended squiggle room with Weirj's selection. So, let it be known, that we are calling Weirj the first official winner of the Tioga Pass Prognosticator award.

As a reminder, the reward for achieving the Tioga Pass Prognosticator award is a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Not to exceed $75.00 USD.

Strangely, Weirj has never posted on the forum, except to post their preference in this poll. Hopefully this will encourage him/her/they to return and participate in the Forum!

And extra Kudos to Southwest Dave for keeping track of this and alerting the rest of us to the official close of the season!