Winter Rite of Passage: Tioga Pass Prognosticator #12

Recapping those still current....

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...l-01-06-12.jpg
Photo: Yosemite Conservancy -- January 6th at 10:15 am.

January 13th at 4:00 pm......glc
January 17th at 3:00 pm......CAnative (Reigning Chief Prognosticator)
January 20th at 4:00 pm.....Sheriff Dave
January 22nd at Noon........Utahtea
January 25th at 2:00 pm....Midwest Michael
January 27th at Noon.....Mark Sedenquist
February 6th at Noon....for Utahtea's DH
February 8th at Noon......CAnative's DH (Reigning Chief Prognosticator's)
March 4th at 2:00 pm....Midwest Michael's Birthday
March 8th at Noon......Utahtea
March 21 at 3:21 PM.......CalOldBlue

A bit more haze than normal for a January morning, but no snow and no rain!

Mostly because it seems absolutely absurd, I'll claim my own birthday of March 4th.

As a still absurd, but somewhat more likely, we'll go January 25th. 2pm for both.

Hopefully I'll be writing a full trip report when I get to San Diego, but here's a sneak photo preview for you now!

Left Carson City about 8:30 this morning and I'm writing this from the Days Inn in Sonora at 5 pm.

Love the Hawaiian shirts as they ice skate. Whoa, that's a very dry meadow!

Mark

Thanks for the update George.

Mark. I'm 99.9% sure that is Tenaya lake where they are skating and picnicking. Cool !

Day 2 pictures

http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...Jan_8_2012.jpg
(photo by George Carey, January 8, 2012)
I see you took a photo of that "magical" cabin on the lake at Ebbets Pass. Cool. Where did you find a place to pull over to take that photo? Tough to find a time of day when the cabin in in the light. The last time I was there, the lake was dark blue and the cabin was lit by sun. Magical....

Nice shots as well of Bodie.
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...Jan_08_glc.jpg
(Photo by George Carey, January 8, 2012)

The lack of snow in those photos is making my hands sweat....

Mark

When I edited the photo for light contrast (above) I was stunned to see so many trees with brown branches. Is that the way it looked in real life too. That's scary.

Down here, we are getting a little nervous....no snow pack means water issues down the road for us....oy vey!



Donna

It was a bit tough getting those cabin pics. There is a turnout on the opposite side of the road right at the big curve and I took the pics standing on the bank on the lake side of the road. It was around 10 am and I was shooting directly into the sun. It was kinda eerie - I could hear the ice cracking and popping as it was getting warmed by the morning sun. The trees were actually pretty green, but not like I guess they would be right after the spring opening.

Seems like the snow may have lost its way. For the third day in a row we have had light snow forecast for the Victorian Alps. It is not unknown for the Kosciusko Range in NSW to get snow storms and blizzards in summer, but Victoria does not have the elevation.

And I can't recall when I last wore woollen jumpers in January.

Lifey

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lifemagician

seems like the snow may have lost its way. For the third day in a row we have had light snow forecast for the victorian alps. It is not unknown for the kosciusko range in nsw to get snow storms and blizzards in summer, but victoria does not have the elevation.

And i can't recall when i last wore woollen jumpers in january.

Lifey

---

hey! You stole our snow!! Put it back!!!

:)

This weekend [•January 14-16 (Martin Luther King, Jr. Day) ] Yosemite are offering Free admission, so if you are in the area it's a great time to visit. This extraordinary weather continues with no signs of it changing before the middle of next week, at the very earliest !!

If you make it out there, we would appreciate an update and some more Photo's !

Dave.

60% chance of rain in the Yosemite Valley Friday and Saturday the 20th and 21st.........

Great views of the Sierra high country -- not much snow!
http://youtu.be/00ZLEqJ_Aak
Ice skating 1000 Island, Garnet and Shadow Lakes along the John Muir Trail

I can't imagine doing this without some sort of life preserver, in case the ice gave way!

Here's another one -- created by CalFire and issued on January 6th

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UEXeuyHpI7g

This looks to be the driest winter on record since 1883 -- the snow pack is at an estimated 19% of normal in the Sierras...

Mark

You would not guess that the Calfire video was shot in December without the commentary.

As glc reported, there is the chance of rain/snow on Thursday night through Friday into Saturday, with a drop in temperatures expected in the coming week.

Quote:

---

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 28
DEGREES ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WARNING. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE
FOOTHILLS...MOUNTAINS...AND KERN COUNTY DESERT AREAS WILL FALL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASON NORMALS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION ON THURSDAY AND SPREADING
SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

---

Friday the 20th perhaps ! ;-) [I doubt it]

Dry all over; as this link shows (Northern Sierra composite).

This was created by Henry Jun Wah Lee
http://vimeo.com/12678707
Courtesy of Evosia Photography

Footage was shot in mid to late May, 2010.

I meant to capture this on Friday the 13th, but this is still an interesting perspective
http://www.roadtripamerica.com/blog/...nuary_2012.jpg
Both photos taken by the Sentinel Web cam hosted by the Yosemite Conservancy. The upper one was taken January 13, 2011 and the lower one January 16, 2012.

Not to worry too much.... One of the heaviest snow storms of the 2011 season happened on March 22nd....

Dave, I betcha you will be pretty close - there is both snow and high winds on their way in.

It looks as though there could be snow from Weds pm onwards and although at the moment only a small amount of accumulation is expected, low temps and high winds has resulted in a Hazardous weather warning and could have a say in the matter.

glc...you're killing me with the lack of snow at Ebbets Pass. It must be killing the snow mobiling season up there! They better get some snow by the end of February!

I do have HIGH hopes that my January 22nd date will be the closing of Tioga Pass! (or at least I have a good shot at it)

Utahtea

Due to the unseasonally warm weather, there are some great deals to be had on snow shovels, snow boots and other cold weather gear. Airlines are making more money (with little need to pay for de-icing chemicals) but lots of Mom & Pop snow-removal businesses are hurting this year in the west.

Mark

From the morning online version of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Very interesting.... If true, than the reigning TPP would have been the closest by by a mere three hours.

This info seems confirmed on the NPS site


Mark

Half Dome still has no snow this morning and the skies are clear

According to Caltrans the road has been closed in preparation for a storm.

Quote:

---

This highway information is the latest reported as of Wednesday, January 18, 2012 at 09:25 .

SR 120
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
IS CLOSED FROM CRANE FLAT TO 5 MI WEST OF THE JCT OF US 395
/TIOGA PASS/ (TUOLUMNE, MONO CO) - DUE TO AN INCOMING STORM
- MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

---

They obviously don't want visitors getting stranded up there if it comes in quickly. Moisture and freezing temps don't mix well for the motorist ! With snow a possibility above 8000ft from tonight and almost certainly by Thursday night and then right through the weekend with a possible accumulation of 18", it's possible this could be it ! ?

According to Yosemite NP the road was to be closed at 7pm on the 17th.

We will have to wait and see if this becomes final and then wait the announcement of the official closing date. As it stands right now we are looking at our possibly, first ever 'Back to back' winner, CAnative having predicted January 17th at 3pm.

Announcement.

I think the closure this year is more about $ and $ then about ice and wind. In a normal year the funding for high country rangers who patrol the road ends in December. I think it is possible that the NPS was looking for a reasonable reason to close the road and end the un-budgeted expense.

Without appropriate levels of snow, it seems likely that the road could open earlier than normal in the spring as well.

Mark

I too think the budget has a lot to do with it. When I went over it, the toll booth was locked up tight, nobody to staff it. They were stopping everyone at the other 3 exits and checking for receipts and collecting money from those who didn't have one. Absolutely nothing was open between the pass and Crane Flat. Also, at Bodie there was nobody in the booth, payment was sort of on the honor system. The ranger there told me that they only had 4 rangers where in the summer they have 20. He was spending most of his time writing tickets in the parking lot for vehicles that didn't have envelope stubs on the dash.

Looks like Sheriff Dave needs to make it official...

NPS site is now reporting the road closed

We've never, ever had a back-to-back TPP winner... Looks like Jessica Beagles-Roo, (CANative) is going to "own" that distinction...pending official ruling by Sheriff Dave.

The page has been updated and is now officially listed as closed. However, this has happened before during this contest period and then been taken down. It also lists Glacier point as having shut on Nov 19, when we know they closed it last night at 7pm. [Doesn't fill you with confidence does it ?]

This also from the Yosemite.

Quote:

---

Yosemite National Park

Winter looks like it might finally be on its way! In preparation, we will be closing the Glacier Point Road tonight at 7pm. We will re-evaluate the road conditions after the storm. The Tioga Road remains closed.

---

I wish they had written "Tioga pass will remain closed now". ??

I'm quite sure it's Jessica's for the taking, I am just waiting a confirmation that that is definitely it for the season.

Ebbetts, Sonora, and Monitor are also closed now - and the only ways to get over the Sierras without chains are 50 and 88. Lots of chain restrictions, including I-80 and I-5.

I'd suggest we wait until at least the 27th and see if it really is closed for the season!

Mark

I thought it possible I would be able to announce the winner today, but unfortunately that is not the case.

In response from Yosemite to my question regarding the Tioga pass status.

Quote:

---

We will re-evaluate conditions of both roads after the storm.

---

'Both' refers to the Tioga Pass and Glacier Point road.

It's looking murky up on the Pass right now and the forecast for tonight is Heavy snow followed by more snow through the weekend, which is thought to be getting heavy again on Sunday night. This is above 8500 feet. A total snow accumulation of between 2 and 3 feet is possible and if it gets somewhere in between that, I would be most surprised if it re-opened again for the winter season.

Dave.

Yes Dave is correct that a 2011 closing date was posted on the official NPS "closing and opening date " list back in November and retracted days later when the road reopened. Any possibility that the announcement of an "official 2012 opening" will be the first indication that the road closed for winter? In other words, if an "opening" date is designated then it might retroactively identify a "closing" date. Thus, the 2 dates would be announced at the same time, then there won't be a 15 day window to predict spring opening. Sigh -- I knew predicting closing date would be more challenging.

Tioga Pass Point Forecast

Looks pretty nasty!

Still snowing...Web cam