I'm predicting it'll close on 21st November at 12:00 Noon as that is when I want to drive it.
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I'm predicting it'll close on 21st November at 12:00 Noon as that is when I want to drive it.
November 21st at 1515 which should be just enough time for Naybour to drive it :)
Time to get a second guess in - November 30 at 4pm.
11/23 (Linda goes in for rotator cuff surgery). Let's say 14:30.
Ye gads, that sounds like an unpleasant surgery time for Linda. Hope it goes well.
I see that Sheriff Dave is wrangling this contest well this season. I just can't get over how much snow has already melted!
Mark
Just as a heads up Craig, the 21st has already gone and as I understand it there is only one "first prize". I guess if you got the time right within the specified limit you could win the "bonus prize".but for a tank of gas it could be you need to pick another date that hasn't been taken.Quote:
Originally Posted by UKCraig
What say thee judge Mark ?
You make the calls of eligibility -- I just pay the bills....
Mark
Apparently I haven't put a guess it, how'd that one slip by?
I'll go late and say December 7. 8:19 am
OK, I had it in my head for some reason that it was one person per date but if that's not already so, then it stays as it is and Craig's prediction is valid.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist
The weather looks real settled for the next week and the snow has all but gone around the Tioga pass kiosk, Wow !
As a lot of you have chosen dates of significance to yourselves, I am going to do the same [I originally thought it was to late in the year !] so as my second guess I choose December 2nd, 3.30 pm the day Lezli and I had our first date, Lol.
So, a person can make more than one guessed date -- as long as they meet the 15-day rule -- and I suppose more than one person can guess the same date -- but if that day is the "winner" the prize will be divided among the winners.Quote:
The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official opening date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**) Further, you must identify a particular date in your post. And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA. The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass. Moderator Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave) is the wrangler on this contest and he can answer any further questions you might have about this communal predictive effort.
Mark
What about using the time of day for a tiebreaker?
Nah!!Quote:
Originally Posted by glc
Surely the winner should be the person who predicted it first. The closer it gets to the date, the easier it would be to predict.... despite the 15 day rule.
Lifey who is no good at guessing anything
No one has ever been part of a tie-breaker -- and I think if such a thing were to occur, the reward will be split -- but we'll have to see what Sheriff Dave wants to do with respect to this unlikely scenario.
mark
Although it is a bit of fun, [ I'm not going all serious, honest !] and it is unlikely that the scenario should occur, I think from this point on the rules should be to identify an available date [one that has not already been chosen] so that everyone has their own unique date.
It adds a new twist to the game as well, the longer you "wait and see" to improve your chances, the chance's are less for that date being available.
I just think it would be a bit of a bummer if you had selected the right date weeks/months ago, and someone else takes it away by an hour or so on the timing of the closure, or even part of the prize by jumping in near to the end.
That's the way I would go if no one has any objections ?
OK, here are the revised rules...
The "Contest"
You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD
* To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass road closing date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
* Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
*And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
* As per revision on 11/08/09, a single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
*The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.
So, there you have it -- I think it could well be a historically late closing this year!
I see there is snow coming in with wintry conditions forecast that could cause disruption, and a closure of the road [ even if temporary]. Wednesday afternoon through Saturday producing snow showers, but heavier Thursday with an accumulation of 2-4 inches possible.
Could this be the beginning of the end ?
Special weather statement issued
The weather warning is no longer valid.
At the moment the Yosemite page is recommending you call for up to the minute details as the snow falls, but the updated forecast doesn't look so bad with clearer weather to follow on.
This is the most recent scene at the kiosk.
http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2...a_currenta.jpg
But that upper road would be a doozy with the ice -- but it looks like the road is still open. Very wild.
Mark
I have just looked on Caltrans, probably as you were posting and the road is now closed. Anyone hoping to travel today should check for up to date info.
If you look at the kiosk Web cam in the first post, it is looking set in and doesn't look like clearing anytime soon !
The road looks clear by the kiosk with clear blue skies above at this moment, but Tioga is still closed from Crane flat to 5 miles West of the junction with 395.
More snow due on the high ground Tues night/ Weds morning and then on and off through the week. I wonder if they will get it open before then, especially as the night time temps are well below freezing.
Makes me wanna put on my Nordic skis, and go ....Quote:
Originally Posted by Southwest Dave
Lifey who is now way past skiing
It could be the end ?
Winter storm alert for Friday and the road is currently closed.
If it remains closed It looks as though the official date could be Nov 12th and my guess was the 13th, guess we will have to wait and see !
I dunno, if the Sheriff/Head Wrangler wins the prize... what does that suggest to you?
Mark
Light snow fell at the kiosk -- there was a bit heavier stuff up above, but I bet the road re-opens.
Mark
A clear week ahead according to the forecast and it's hard to imagine there being enough snow to keep it closed, although those night time temps are going to keep it pretty icy up there.
I am wondering whether Naybour actually got to drive the road on the 21st or was it closed then too?
As far as I am aware it has been closed since the 12th Nov [or there abouts] and has not opened since. It's possible that it has and I missed it, but Naybour wouldn't of got across on the 21st.
Urgh. And I guess it means my attempt to predict the date failed for another year too!
Well you get the chance at another if you want it, Providing your chosen date is available and at least 15 days from now. Although it's a long shot, if it does reopen this week it is possible that it could be a very late one.
Okay... in that case I go for Christmas Day!
That is a Loooooooooooooonnnnnng shot !
It would surpass the Yosemite websites latest closing date by a fortnight, although not impossible. This data records 29th Dec 1976 [The heatwave year here in the UK, Mmm] but it also records 1st Jan 2000 for the 1999 season that doesn't coincide with the parks page. Quite a few of the dates don't, but not by this margin !
[Off to investigate !]
Well it's as likely as my annual bet of 21st November ;)
Going by today's update it looks as though it's less likely to open at all, it's getting late in the year for a re opening.
Fresh snow, below freezing temps and high winds !
[Note] For anyone visiting Yosemite, this forecast reflects the weather at around 9500ft, not in the Valley.Quote:
Hazardous weather condition(s):
Special Weather Statement
Today: A 30 percent chance of snow after 10am. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 29 by 5pm. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.
Tonight: Snow. Low around 16. Blustery, with a south wind around 25 mph becoming northeast. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday: Snow showers, mainly before 10am. High near 31. Very windy, with a north wind around 40 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 38. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph.
Looks like about a foot of fresh snow at the kiosk last night:
http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/tioga/tioga/tioga_currenta.jpg
Mark
Yosemite NP have given their verdict and the official closing date is 12th Nov.
Guess what !!! Well I didn't win the prize but was pretty darn close and I do believe the dctpp winner having opted for Fri 13th Nov. [The bribe wasn't big enough !]Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist
Surely I win?! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by UKCraig
Nah, I'm the sheriff !Quote:
Originally Posted by UKCraig
Anymore of that your off to jail ;-)
Hahaha - very creative use of the quote system, Craig!
I'm gonna put you on the spot, Dave - Cal guessed the 11th at 9pm before you guessed the 13th with no time of day. Looks like a booth review to me!
Just kidding !
Darn, I missed Don's effort [honest mistake Guv'nor] and I reckon it's his for the taking. I posted on the 12th at 1.36 pm to report the road closed, so it was obviously sometime before then putting Don within 17 hours. If I took "no time stated" as meaning midday I would be at least 22.5 hours out.
I think my own post was enough evidence to decide the winner,
congratulations Don !
I forget what is at stake, but I'm OK with sharing if it can be split.
The glory of winning is reward enough!