View Poll Results: When Will Tioga Pass Open for the 2011 Season?

Voters
19. You may not vote on this poll
  • On or before May 1st

    0 0%
  • May 2nd to May 12th

    1 5.26%
  • May 13th to May 25th

    2 10.53%
  • May 26th to May 31st

    2 10.53%
  • June 1 to June 2nd

    0 0%
  • June 3rd to June 5th

    0 0%
  • June 6th to June 8th

    1 5.26%
  • June 9th to June 11th

    3 15.79%
  • June 12th to June 15th

    3 15.79%
  • On or after June 16th

    7 36.84%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 1998
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada
    Posts
    10,052

    Default Spring Rite of Passage: Tioga Pass Prognosticator #11

    This is our eleventh attempt at predicting future road conditions on one of our favorite mountain crossings in the American West. Last Spring, (June 2010) RTA Forum Member, Exodus, claimed the title of Reigning Chief Prognosticator when he correctly named the opening day and opening time of this famous highway. {Exodus' winning prediction was June 5th at 8:00 am} Winners with their prizes can be found here.

    Tioga Pass which is found on California State Route 120 provides the eastern access to Yosemite National Park and is usually the last pass opened to the roadtripping public each Spring. As such, it has become the RTA harbinger for the start of the summer road trip season in the west. For all of those folks who think that Tioga Pass is not a big deal... one of our long-time roadtripper colleagues remembers driving it in the 1930's when it was a single lane, dirt track, with no guardrails and drop-offs on both sides of the road....

    ************Forum Moderator, Dave Gomm, (Southwest Dave) is the official Sheriff and Chief Wrangler for this contest and his rulings as to the naming of the winner are final, (& they also could be arbitrary & capricious) Got a beef? Or a question? Take it up with him...

    In the past we've had four winners of the dcTPP… (Which is also known as the official Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator) -- Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Hotel Charlotte ( Lynn & Victor), Kinless, and Sheriff Dave, for their predictive skills in the winter of 2010 and 2009, and the spring of 2008 & 2007, respectively, and the first Tioga Pass Prognosticator award was presented to weirj in Winter 2008. We're now looking for our third Tioga Pass Prognosticator for the Spring road opening. Maybe you're the next one?

    So here's official list -- as approved by Sheriff & Chief Wrangler Dave Gomm:
    Prognosticators Extraordinaire To-Date:
    Tioga Pass Prognosticator Winners:
    Jessica Beagles-Roo (CANative) Spring, 2011
    Brian Shannon (Exodus) Spring, 2010
    Phil Boardman, (PhilB) Spring 2009
    weirj Winter 2008
    ******dcTPP (Darn Close -- Tioga Pass Prognosticator)
    *************Sheriff Dave Gomm (Southwest Dave), Winter 2010
    *************Don Casey (CalOldBlue), Winter 2009
    *************Lynn & Victor (Hotel Charlotte), Spring 2008
    *************Joey (Kinless), Spring 2007


    Official Tioga Pass openings in recent years:
    2011: June 18th (8:45 am)
    2010: June 5th (8:00 am)
    2009: May 19th (10:30 am)
    2008: May 21st (8:00 am)
    2007: May 11th (this was an early one!)
    2006: June 17th
    2005: June 24th
    2004: May 14th
    2003: May 31st
    2002: May 22nd
    2001: May 12th

    And here are the Yosemite NP's Official opening and closing dates for the last several years.

    The "Contest"
    You are welcome to use your predictive talents and if you manage to hit the correct date -- the RTA Editorial group will pay for a tank of roadtrip fuel in your personal roadtrip ride. Legal has suggested that we identify what this means.... So, for the record, the prize will be limited to $75.00 USD

    * To win this prize, the date must be posted** on this Forum more than or equal to fifteen (15) days prior to the official Tioga Pass Road CLOSING date. (**Your "date" must be identified in a post on this thread...**)
    * Further, you must identify a particular date in your post.
    * Further, you must identify a particular time in your post (date and time is required for the winning entry).
    *And if you manage to identify the correct opening time within 60 minutes.... you'll receive an additional surprise gift from RTA.
    * A single calendar date can only be claimed by one member. If two or more members chose the same calendar date, and that date proves to be the "Winning Date", the prize will go to the member who "claimed" the date the earliest in this contest period.
    *The official date for this Tioga Pass Prognosticator contest tracks with Pacific Time (USA), so no matter what date it might be in your local neighborhood, the date used for this contest will be the same one used by the officials at Yosemite National Park for Tioga Pass.

    When you have identified your prediction in your post, please "Ping the Poll" at the top of page

    Previous Predictive Efforts:
    Spring Opening 2006
    Winter Closing 2006
    Spring Opening 2007
    Winter Closing 2007
    Spring Opening 2008
    Winter Closing 2008
    Spring Opening 2009
    Winter Closing 2009
    Spring Opening 2010
    Winter Closing, 2010

    And here you can monitor current conditions from 5 Web cams in Yosemite NP.

    And this is a very cool page -- it lists the opening and closing dates for other high Sierra Nevada passes, which might give you an edge as predict this year's dates.... (Produced by Caltrans).

    And if you go to the Winter, 2010 TPP and look at this page, (scroll down the page) you'll see a live Web cam of Half Dome together with a still taken on November 24, 2010 to see how much snow fell in late November! I've since added shots taken in January and March, 2011 -- the March 2011 is truly astounding....

    Happy Predicting!

    Sheriff Dave and the Great American RoadTrip Forum Staff
    Last edited by Mark Sedenquist; 11-16-2011 at 04:43 PM. Reason: added the opening time and date

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 1998
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada
    Posts
    10,052

    Default Voting my birthday... again

    So, I'm declaring a vote for May 12th at 11:45 am....

    -- Mark

  3. Default May 27 at 8 am

    I predict May 27 at 8am.

    But I never win anything!

    So, I picked the losing date so that others will have an improved chance of picking the winning date!

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    South of England.
    Posts
    10,696

    Default Some useless info for you predictors!

    ^^ Thanks travelingman, I need more like you if I am to win the prize !!

    You might be interested to know that the Mono Lake committee recorded a record amount of November snowfall since 1994 ! Although there will be many factors at work, it's hardly surprising that the 1995 opening was the second latest since 1980, when it finally opened on June 30.

    The snow depth at Tioga entry station would appear to be well above average at a depth of 40" and there is a 'humdinger' of a storm forecast over the weekend that could dump between 43 and 73" of fresh snow !!

    My prediction June 16 @ 4pm

    Good luck to all !

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    South of England.
    Posts
    10,696

    Default A quick update and competition reminder.

    Things have settled down on the pass for the time being but with the snow pack reportedly between 60 and 70 in deep at Tuolumne meadows it would appear to be well above average for the time of year compared to the last few seasons.

    Today's picture taken from the Web cam at Sentinel dome.


  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 1998
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada
    Posts
    10,052

    Default That link doesn't load but....

    Hard to imagine there could be 60' feet of snow anywhere in North America. 60 inches (5 feet) Yeah, I could see that.

    But nice photo capture!

    Mark

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    South of England.
    Posts
    10,696

    Default Ooops !

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Sedenquist View Post
    Voting my birthday... again So, I'm declaring a vote for May 12th at 11:45 am....

    -- Mark
    I missed your date this time around ! Belated Birthday wishes to you Mark. [better late than never]

    Go on, have another go as a late Birthday treat ! ;-) lol

  8. Default

    Unless I'm to late to predict and get my entry in (I just found this thread)

    I pick June 24 at 12:00 Noon

    Utahtea

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    South of England.
    Posts
    10,696

    Default Get the winter gear back out !

    Not too late Utahtea, so good luck !

    Although it might be a July opening yet !! [I doubt it though]

    Winter weather warning in place with up to 10 inches of new snow possible, ice, wind and 'Thundersnow' too !

    From the weather service.

    Winter Storm Warning
    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
    430 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011

    CAZ096-151930-
    /O.CON.KHNX.WS.W.0009.110515T1200Z-110516T0600Z/
    SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
    430 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011

    ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
    EVENING ABOVE 6000 FEET...

    A WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 6000 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
    11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
    YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON.

    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

    * ELEVATION: ABOVE 6000 FEET.

    * TIMING: SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
    THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY OCCUR ON THIS
    AFTERNOON IN THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.

    * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SHAVER LAKE...YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.

    * WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE
    CRESTS.

    * IMPACTS: LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER WITH SNOW...STRONG WINDS
    AND COLD TEMPERATURES. MANY PEOPLE HAVE PUT AWAY THEIR
    WINTER TRAVELING GEAR BECAUSE THE WEATHER HAS BEEN MUCH
    WARMER LATELY. BE AWARE THAT DANGEROUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS
    IN ICE AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THUNDERSNOW IS ALSO
    POSSIBLE.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
    EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
    MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

    &&

    $$

    DUDLEY

    WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 1998
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada
    Posts
    10,052

    Default Snow caused a delay in the fancy Amgen Tour Race at Lake Tahoe!

    Stage 1 of the 2011 Amgen Tour of California to Start at 1:15 p.m. PT
    Route Shortened Due to Later Start Time, but Still Includes KOM and Sprint Competitions

    Lake Tahoe, Calif. (May 15, 2011) – After monitoring weather conditions overnight and this morning, while consulting with public safety and race team officials, organizers of the 2011 Amgen Tour of California have announced that the current and projected weather conditions will allow Stage 1 of the race to start at 1:15 p.m. PT at the original start line in South Lake Tahoe. Race officials will continue to pay close attention and monitor the course and all other conditions. If at any time it is determined to be unsafe to continue, the race will be neutralized.
    The new route (which merely eliminates a portion of a loop around Lake Tahoe) will continue to take the riders from South Lake Tahoe to Northstar around the west side of Lake Tahoe and will be approximately 50 miles. The projected finish timing, which was to be between 3:15 and 4 p.m. PT will remain unchanged.

    The Lifestyle Festival in Northstar will open as scheduled at noon PT, with the timing of the Amgen Breakaway Mile remaining on schedule for 2:30 p.m. PT.

    “We have been in constant communication with all parties involved in the 2011 Amgen Tour of California – from public safety and transportation authorities to teams and all of our partners – to ensure our decision protects the safety of our riders and fans,” said Andrew Messick, president of AEG Sports. “We thank everyone for their tireless efforts in bringing this race together, and pledge that we still have a great day of racing ahead of us today.”

    Fans are still encouraged to come out to the start line at Montbleu, where rider sign-in will take place at 12:15 p.m. PT, allowing them to see the cyclists up close before they take off for the start of the race. Unfortunately, with the change in course, people will not be able to see both the start and finish in person. Fans in the South Lake Tahoe area who want to experience the Stage 1 finish at Northstar will need be on the road by 12:30 p.m. PT at the latest.

    Beginning with a neutral start that takes the cyclists west out of South Lake Tahoe, the race will follow the second half of the original route and feature highlights including:
    • King of the Mountains (KOM) competition at Emerald Bay at approximately mile 13
    • Sprint line at Tahoe City at approximately mile 31
    • KOM competition at Brockway summit at approximately mile 43

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